Govt continued to mend ties with neighbours; clampdown on opposition persisted. Following arrest of at least six members of main opposition party National Congress for Freedom (CNL) for alleged role in June deadly ambush in Muramvya province, CNL 3 July criticised “disguised way to harass [opposition] and thereby further lock down political space”. CNL 13 July said its leader in Mutimbuzi commune, Bujumbura Rural province, had gone missing 9 July after boarding army vehicle, called for investigation and decried “arbitrary arrests” of party members. Meanwhile, govt officially engaged in regional security cooperation, notably hosting meeting of heads of intelligence and security from DR Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda 5-6 July; officials adopted two-year plan of action for Contact Group set to implement non-military measures to complement military efforts against armed actors in region from early Aug. During President Ndayishimiye’s visit to neighbouring DRC, Gitega and Kinshasa 13 July announced bilateral cooperation against armed groups in eastern DRC; agreement likely to lead to joint operations against Burundian armed groups in South Kivu province. Amid rapprochement with Rwanda, Rwanda’s PM Edouard Ngirente 1 July attended Burundi’s independence celebration; Gitega 4 July however did not attend Rwanda’s Liberation Day festivities, which marks end of genocide against ethnic Tutsis. Burundian FM Albert Shingiro 12 July said Kigali’s refusal to hand over those allegedly involved in 2015 failed coup against former President Nkurunziza remains final obstacle in rapprochement; Ndayishimiye 17 July expressed hope that solution is close. Kigali 30 July handed over to Gitega 19 RED-Tabara rebels captured in late 2020.

Violent clashes continued in Anglophone regions between govt forces and separatists fighting for independent Southern Cameroon state; jihadists attacked govt positions in Far North. In North West region, separatists 1 and 7 July used IEDs to ambush army patrols in Mezam and Boyo divisions respectively; 7 July attacked Njavnuy checkpoint, Bui division, killing one policeman; 18 July killed five policemen after detonating IED in Mezam division; 24 July ambushed army patrol in double IED explosion in Mezam, death toll unknown. Govt forces 6 July killed two separatists in regional capital Bamenda, and 16 July clashed with separatists in Ngo-Ketunjia division, reportedly killing at least 15. In South West region, separatists 7 July kidnapped two policemen in Kumba city, Meme division; armed forces 18 July said they had killed separatist leader “General Rambo” in Kumba. In neighbouring Francophone West region, suspected separatists 14 July killed two soldiers in Babadjou town. Govt forces 24 July killed two women in Pinyin, Bamenda town. Nigerian President Buhari 13 July pledged support for Cameroonian institutions, said Cameroon’s stability was in Nigeria’s interest; move comes after Anglophone and Biafran separatist groups in April announced alliance. During visit of President Biya to Geneva city, Switzerland, where he was reportedly receiving medical treatment, over 100 protesters 17 July attempted to break police barricade at his hotel; incident raised tensions in Cameroon where govt supporters accused opposition leader Maurice Kamto’s ethnic group of harassing Biya. In Far North, jihadists stepped up attacks against govt forces. In Mayo-Sava division, Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) 4, 12 and 14 July attacked military posts in Kolofata area. Govt forces 9 July killed two ISWAP militants in Fotokol town, Logone-et-Chari division, and two Boko Haram (BH) combatants in regional capital Maroua. BH militants 24 July attacked Sagme village, Logone-et-Chari division at border with Nigeria, killing eight soldiers, while armed forces reportedly killed 20 militants. Jihadist militants 26 July killed five soldiers and one civilian in raid on military outpost in Zigue village, Logone-et-Chari division; in response, armed forces killed 17 assailants. At least 60 BH militants 18 and 25 July surrendered in Kolofata town.

Govt took steps to organise long-delayed political dialogue with opposition and civil society; govt forces along with foreign allies continued to clash with rebels. After opposition 5 July criticised as biased committee which President Touadéra appointed late June to set up and run political dialogue, govt 9 July held talks with opposition and civil society representatives to reach compromise; main opposition coalition COD-2020 24 July said it would take part in dialogue, after govt agreed committee would no longer be placed under Touadéra’s direct authority, raised number of political parties’ representatives from one to four, and broadened choice of experts who can provide support. Long-delayed Truth, Justice, Reconciliation and Reparation Commission, recommended in 2015 Bangui Forum and 2019 Khartoum peace deal, set up 2 July with swearing-in of all 11 commissioners. Meanwhile, army along with Russian security personnel pursued military offensive against rebel Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), who continued to harass govt forces and civilians mainly in areas left by Russian security personnel in recent months. Notably, CPC rebel groups reportedly killed three soldiers in Besson town, Nana-Mambéré prefecture 9 July, one civilian in Bédamara village, Ouham-Pendé prefecture 18 July, and another two in Naziboro village, Nana-Mambéré prefecture 20 July; CPC member 3R 26 July killed at least four Russian security personnel and two govt troops in Ndongué Douane village, Nana-Mambéré prefecture, and 31 July killed at least six civilians in Mann village, Ouham-Pendé prefecture. CPC also staged further ambushes along main roads, mainly in Ouham-Pendé and Lim-Pendé prefectures, notably killing three civilians in Ouham-Pendé prefecture first week of July. Unidentified assailants 21 July killed 13 civilians in Bongboto area, Ouham prefecture; govt immediately blamed CPC, which denied responsibility; UN peacekeeping force (MINUSCA) next day called for investigation amid persistent reports of abuses against civilians by all sides in conflict. Rebel group Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC), which withdrew from CPC in April, 17 July offered to “definitively lay down arms” in exchange for concessions from govt, including two ministerial portfolios. UN Security Council 29 July renewed sanctions regime until 31 July 2022.

Tensions ran high with African Union (AU) over appointment of High Representative for Chad; govt took steps toward organising national dialogue. Following June appointment of former Senegalese FM Ibrahima Fall as AU high representative to support Chadian transition, senior govt official in French media outlet RFI 1 July ruled out collaboration, said Chad was “not under AU tutelage”. High-level AU delegation 7-9 July visited capital N’Djamena, met with Transitional Military Council (CMT) head Mahamat Idriss Déby and FM Cherif Mahamat Zene in attempt to resolve dispute. AU 23 July appointed its head of Liaison Office in Chad, former Congolese FM Basile Ikouébé, as new high representative. Déby 5 July met French President Macron in first official visit to France; Macron reiterated support for transition. Meanwhile, presidential decree 2 July established Organising Committee of National Dialogue (CODNI) comprising 71 members including civil society and religious organisations’ representatives; opposition and civil society platform Wakit Tama 8 July said process not inclusive, while prominent opposition figure Yaya Dillo 16 July decried CODNI as biased in favour of ruling party. Newly authorised opposition party Les Transformateurs 4 July held public gathering in N’Djamena. After transition authorities 12 July authorised for first time march of Wakit Tama (which includes Les Transformateurs), hundreds 29 July protested in N’Djamena against CMT rule and French influence.

Controversial nationality bill threatened to break up President Tshisekedi’s Sacred Union coalition; meanwhile, armed violence continued unabated in east. Tshisekedi 3 July signed law on organisation and functioning of Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) ahead of 2023 presidential election; two-thirds of members to come from political parties, same as previous CENI, despite calls from opposition and religious leaders for CENI to be composed mainly of civil society and electoral experts. Tshisekedi’s Sacred Union coalition MP Nsingi Pululu 8 July introduced controversial nationality bill seeking to prohibit anyone born to a non-Congolese parent from accessing presidency and other sovereign functions. Bill drew widespread domestic and international criticism. Notably, Moïse Katumbi’s party Ensemble pour la République next day criticised law for seeking to exclude Katumbi, whose father is Greek, from presidential election and threatened to leave Sacred Union coalition if bill passed; Archbishop of Kinshasa 11 July denounced bill as “instrument of exclusion and division”. Meanwhile, in address to UN Security Council, head of UN mission 7 July warned of “potentially dangerous consequences of a divisive debate on nationality” ahead of next year’s election. Amid ongoing and increasingly sophisticated violence in east, MPs 16 July approved fourth extension of state of siege. UN refugee agency same day said Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) had launched series of attacks in and around North Kivu’s Beni city since 22 June, killing at least 14 and displacing 20,000; fresh ADF attacks 16, 19, 22 and 27-28 July reportedly left at least 29 civilians dead in Beni territory; armed forces 30 July reportedly clashed with ADF in Kilya locality leaving four ADF, one civilian and one soldier dead. In neighbouring Ituri province, armed violence notably by ADF continued, at times turning into interethnic settling of scores in Irumu territory: mob 1 July killed nine Banyabwisha community members suspected of ADF connections in Komanda locality; ADF 10 July killed seven and kidnapped 30 civilians in Monge village; and armed forces 26 July clashed with ADF in Boga and Tchabi villages, reportedly leaving 15 ADF and seven soldiers dead.

Govt continued to face international pressure to withdraw its forces from Ethiopia’s Tigray region. As violence in Tigray started to spread to other Ethiopian regional states (see Ethiopia), UN Human Rights Council 13 July passed resolution calling for “swift and verifiable withdrawal of Eritrean troops” from Tigray; govt previous day had called on council to reject resolution, denouncing “unjust and unfair treatment [of Eritrea] by some western countries”. Meanwhile, allegations of rights violations against Eritrean refugees in Tigray mounted throughout month. Notably, UN refugee agency 13 July said it had received credible reports of “reprisal attacks, abductions, arrests and violence” meted out against Eritrean refugees there, with “hundreds” reportedly arrested in Tigray’s Shire town in previous weeks; 27 July said armed elements operating in and around refugee camps had killed at least two Eritrean refugees in Tigray’s Mai Tsebri area since 14 July. Tigrayan forces mid-month also allegedly abducted over a dozen Eritrean refugees in Tigray’s Adi Harush camp; Tigray leaders 22 July denied targeting Eritrean refugees. Some 300 Eritrean refugees 29 July demonstrated outside UN refugee agency office in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa demanding protection for fellow Eritrean refugees stuck in Tigray camps.

Intercommunal violence flared up in north and by-election loss dealt new blow to President Kenyatta ahead of 2022 general elections. Competition ahead of 2022 governorship poll fuelled intercommunal violence in Marsabit county in north; notably, clashes between ethnic Gabra and ethnic Borana 12-18 July left five dead. National Cohesion and Integration Commission 12 July called for “ceasefire”, said it would convene peace dialogue to ease tensions between communities, while Kenyatta 15 July called on local leaders to use their influence to foster peace and reconciliation. In new blow to Kenyatta ahead of 2022 elections, ruling Jubilee Party 15 July lost parliamentary by-election in Kenyatta’s home county of Kiambu to candidate aligned with Deputy President William Ruto, who has long been locked in power struggle with Kenyatta. Electoral commission 23 July concluded interviews for four commissioner positions left vacant since 2018.

As long-awaited elections faced new delays, Al-Shabaab attacks and counter-offensives continued, leaving scores dead. Most federal member states failed to form local selection committees and submit candidates’ lists in time for Senate election to take place 25-28 July as planned. Earlier in month, federal electoral commission 4 July elected Mohamed Hassan Irro as chair, finalising its composition. Electoral process continued to face several hurdles, however; notably, Senate speaker Abdi Hashi and Deputy PM Mahdi Guled throughout month continued to spar for control of local selection committee for Somaliland; opposition bloc of 15 presidential candidates 18 July expressed concern that electoral preparations remained incomplete and federal govt had not done enough to guarantee free and fair polls. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab 20 July threatened to target electoral authorities and continued to launch deadly attacks. Notably, in capital Mogadishu, suicide bombings killed at least ten people 2 July and at least another nine 10 July; latter attack reportedly targeted Mogadishu police chief Farhan Qarole, who survived unharmed. In Jubaland state, suspected Al-Shabaab explosive device 30 July killed at least five civilians in Kismayo city. Clashes between suspected Al-Shaabab militants on one side and security forces and AU mission troops on the other 13 July reportedly left 11 militants and seven security forces dead in Kuday village, Lower Juba region. Security forces 4-29 July reportedly killed dozens of Al-Shabaab combatants in centre and south, including 15 in Galguduud region 4 July, 35 in Mudug region 19 July, and another 30 in Hiraan region 26-29 July. Following six-month hiatus, U.S. airstrikes 20 and 23 July killed unknown number of Al-Shabaab militants in Galmudug state. Violence erupted in Hirshabelle state where forces reportedly aligned with renegade Gen. Abukar Huud 3 July clashed with Hirshabelle state forces and federal troops in state’s largest city Beledweyne; at least two killed. Clashes between rival federal govt forces over control of checkpoint 24 July reportedly killed four civilians in Mogadishu. Federal govt 17 July rejected conclusions of AU report proposing four options for future of AU mission in Somalia (AMISOM), including transition to hybrid UN-AU mission.

Country marked tenth independence anniversary amid ongoing violence and delays in implementation of transitional agenda. On tenth anniversary of South Sudan’s independence, President Kiir 9 July lamented “lost decade” and warned against “ethnic and regional activism” but lauded “new spirit of dialogue” among civil war belligerents. Kiir 3 July replaced 35 MPs due to sit in Transitional National Legislative Assembly (TNLA); govt 7 and 29 July postponed swearing-in of TNLA initially scheduled for 9 July, now expected for 2 Aug. Govt and factions of South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (SSOMA, coalition of non-signatory rebel groups) led by Paul Malong and Pagan Amum 15 July resumed talks in Italian capital Rome, 18 July agreed to incorporate Malong’s and Amum’s factions into ceasefire and transitional security arrangements monitoring body; also signed political roadmap scheduling three rounds of talks from Sept to Nov. However, attempts to restart peace talks between govt and SSOMA faction led by Thomas Cirillo, leader of rebel group National Salvation Front (NAS), remained stalled. Meanwhile, official body monitoring Sept 2018 peace deal implementation 22 July expressed “critical concern” over delays in setting up unified army, amid reports that soldiers keep abandoning cantonment and training sites over lack of food and medicine. Intercommunal violence persisted in centre, north and south. In Lakes state (centre), suspected armed youth from neighbouring Rumbek East county 13 July reportedly killed three people in separate attacks on Pulthib and Mayom-cuei villages, Yirol West county. In Warrap state (also centre), cattle raid in Tonj East county by suspected armed youth from Tonj North county 9 July left 14 dead. In Unity state (north), clashes between two ethnic Dinka Bek subgroups 13 July killed three in Mayiendit county. In Western Equatoria state (south), intercommunal violence and clashes between forces loyal to Kiir and those loyal to VP Riek Machar throughout month reportedly killed at least three and displaced over 4,000 in greater Tambura area. UN Mission in South Sudan 26 July said it was “deeply disturbed” by recent spate of extrajudicial executions of alleged criminals in Warrap and Lakes states that reportedly left at least 42 people dead since March.

Intercommunal violence left dozens killed in Darfur, violence persisted in al-Fashaga area along border with Ethiopia, and govt made some progress in implementation of Oct 2020 peace deal. In West Darfur state, tribal clashes left over 20 people dead in Sirba locality 1-4 July and another 12 in Kereinik and Jebel Moon localities 2-5 July. In South Darfur state, unidentified gunmen 15-16 July killed three people in two separate attacks in Gereida locality. In North Darfur state, artillery shelling 17-18 July reportedly killed at least 17 in Sortony camp for displaced people, Kabkabiya locality. Alleged tribal violence also left at least four dead in Red Sea state’s capital Port Sudan 10 July and another 13 in Qadir area of South Kordofan state next day, prompting Security and Defence Council 12 July to scale up security operations in both states. Meanwhile, authorities 5 July said long-delayed Transitional Legislative Council would hold its first session in August; Sovereign Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan same day issued decree to form long-awaited body in charge of supervising disarmament, demobilisation and integration into armed forces of rebel group signatories of Oct 2020 peace agreement, as well as ceasefire monitoring committees in Darfur. Hundreds of combatants affiliated with Minni Minnawi’s Sudan Liberation Movement/Army faction 17 July deployed to North Darfur state to take part in joint forces aimed at protecting civilians following Dec 2020 pull-out of AU-UN peacekeeping mission UNAMID. Amid continued economic turmoil, international creditors 16 July cancelled $14.1bn of Sudan’s international debts and rescheduled another $9.4bn. Meanwhile, tensions persisted with Ethiopia over disputed al-Fashaga border zone; army 11 July reportedly repelled cross-border attack by Ethiopian militia, number of casualties unknown; govt 20 July vowed to keep troops in border zone until area “regains its full security and stability”; Ethiopian militia 23 July reportedly abducted three Sudanese children, next day killed one Sudanese soldier. Tensions ran high between Sudan and Egypt on one side and Ethiopia on the other as Addis Ababa completed second filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (see Nile Waters).

Armed forces repelled attack by suspected Congolese rebels in north west, and President Museveni replaced top civil servants by close allies. After assassination attempt against Transport Minister and former chief of defence forces Gen. Katumba Wamala in June, police 1 July claimed attackers had been trained in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s North Kivu province by armed group Allied Democratic Forces with alleged links to Islamic State (ISIS); eight suspects 15 July filed complaint against govt and deputy inspector general of police, claiming they were tortured while in police custody. In Zombo district (north west) at border with DRC, armed forces 16 July repelled attack by suspected Cooperation for the Development of Congo rebels; six assailants and one soldier killed. Following army and cabinet reshuffles in June, Museveni 15 July retired seven top civil servants and appointed several close allies to new positions, including his son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo as presidential adviser for special duties. Meanwhile, govt 23 July signed deal with Russian company to install tracking devices on all public and private vehicles as part of anti-crime measures; opposition and rights activists immediately denounced plan as violation of individual rights and attempt by govt to watch over critics, while lawyer Hassan Male Mabirizi 26 July filed lawsuit against govt at High Court.

Legal battle over chief justice position continued as authorities sought to restrict space for NGOs. Constitutional Court 16 July reserved judgment in case that challenges High Court ruling invalidating President Mnangagwa’s five-year extension of Chief Justice Luke Malaba’s term. Mnangagwa 25 July appointed Justice Mary Zimba-Dube as judge president, responsible for overseeing High Court; Zimba-Dube’s predecessor was removed after justice minister accused him of assigning hostile judges to case in which govt was being sued. Harare High Court 14 July granted bail to Makomborero Haruzivishe, member of main opposition party faction led by Nelson Chamisa; Haruzivishe was sentenced to 14 months in prison in April for allegedly “inciting violence” and “resisting arrest”. After ruling party ZANU-PF’s Acting National Political Commissioner Patrick Chinamasa late June said party would not surrender its “unbreakable” bond with armed forces, Chamisa 4 July reproached ZANU-PF for treating military as party’s armed wing in violation of constitution. UK govt 22 July imposed asset freeze and travel ban on businessman and presidential adviser Kudakwashe Tagwirei for alleged corruption; sanctions also apply to any entity Tagwirei owns or controls. After Harare provincial authorities 29 July said all NGOs that failed to submit workplans by 30 June had to cease operations, two human rights NGOs 30 July filed High Court application seeking to overturn decision.

Thousands protested across country to denounce insecurity as jihadist attacks persisted in several regions. Amid mounting pressure following Solhan massacre which left over 160 dead in early June, President Kaboré 1 July sacked defence and security ministers, assuming defence portfolio himself. Thousands 3-4 July protested in capital Ouagadougou and other cities across country against insecurity and to demand govt action. Meanwhile, violence persisted albeit at lower intensity in Sahel region. In Soum province, IED allegedly planted by jihadists 5 July killed two women and one child on Liki-Arbinda axis (Arbinda department). In Oudalan province, suspected Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) militants 5 July killed three people in Tin-Zalayanane village (Tin-Akof department). Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group to Support Islam and Muslims (JNIM) maintained attacks in North region, particularly Loroum province, notably killing four people and abducting two volunteers fighting alongside security forces (VDPs) in Nogo village (Titao department) 7 July; security forces and VDPs 13 July clashed with JNIM in Titao department, leaving two members of security forces and three VDPs wounded, and five VDPs missing. In Centre-North region, Sanmatenga province witnessed most violent incidents, including suspected JNIM attack on Niha-Mossi village (Pensa department) 10 July, which killed at least ten including seven VDPs. In East region, presumed JNIM militants 3 and 5 July killed three civilians and one VDP in Fada N’Gourma department, Gourma province. Military 26 July said troops had killed dozens of suspected jihadists in counter-insurgency operation in Kompienga province 19-25 July. Meanwhile, French Council of State 30 July cleared extradition of François Compaoré, brother of former President Blaise Compaoré, to Burkina Faso, where he is wanted in connection with 1998 murder of journalist Norbert Zongo; François Compaoré’s lawyers same day said he had appealed to European Court of Human Rights.

President Ouattara met with former President Gbagbo in strong symbolic step toward national reconciliation. Following Gbagbo’s return from ten-year exile in June, Ouattara and Gbagbo 27 July met in economic capital Abidjan for first time since 2010-2011 post-electoral violence that left over 3,000 dead; Ouattara, who has aimed to ease political tensions following his controversial re-election in 2020, said crisis was “behind” and called for “peace”; Gbagbo said he had urged Ouattara to continue reconciliation efforts by freeing his followers imprisoned since 2010-2011 violence. Earlier in month, prospects for reconciliation appeared to falter. Gbagbo 11 July visited former political rival, former President Bédié, in his hometown of Daoukro (centre) in “act of reconciliation and acknowledgment”, said Ouattara’s third term was unconstitutional; Bédié said meeting was “historic turning point” and called on govt to initiate “true national reconciliation project”. National Assembly Deputy Speaker and ruling party Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace Executive Secretary Adama Bictogo next day dismissed Bédié’s call, saying Côte d’Ivoire was “not in need of any national dialogue”, and decried Bédié and Gbagbo’s rapprochement as “deceitful alliance of two men of the past”.

Authorities faced pressure to continue releasing political prisoners, and opposition remained divided. After authorities in past two months released dozens of individuals arrested around Oct 2020 presidential election, National Assembly Speaker Amadou Damaro Camara 5 July exhorted President Condé to grant more presidential pardons; NGO Amnesty International 8 July welcomed recent release of 40 individuals who had been detained in election period, said 57 others including four prominent leaders of main opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) remained incarcerated; all four granted parole 16 July. UFDG leadership 10 July announced resumption of anti-Condé demonstrations in Aug; party remains divided over strategy toward Condé, with several incarcerated leaders in favour of conciliatory approach while remaining segment of party’s leadership, including its President Cellou Dalein Diallo, maintains anti-dialogue stance.

Interim President Goïta survived apparent assassination attempt, while security situation remained fragile in north and centre. Armed individual 20 July reportedly attempted to stab Goïta in capital Bamako; authorities 21 July said they had opened probe into attack, 25 July said main suspect had died in custody; National Commission for Human Rights 26 July called for investigation into his death. Meanwhile, PM Choguel Maïga 8 July said govt would establish single election body ahead of presidential and legislative elections scheduled for Feb 2022; opposition politician Amadou Diallo and others immediately voiced concern that junta may use reform as pretext to prolong transition. Maïga 30 July presented interim govt’s action plan, said he was mindful of “fixed timeline for the transition”. Main signatories of 2015 Algiers Peace Agreement, rival armed groups Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) and Platform coalition 3-5 July gathered in Kidal city (north), vowed to accelerate agreement’s implementation, coordinate and unify efforts to protect northern regions’ populations. Security situation remained fragile in north and centre. In Timbuktu region (north), presumed al-Qaeda-linked Group to Support Islam and Muslims (JNIM)-affiliated Katiba Macina 4 July killed four soldiers in ambush near Diartou village (Niafunke district). In Mopti region (centre), suspected Katiba Macina militants 5 July attacked ethnic Dogon militia Dana Ambassagou’s position between Dourou and Yawa villages (Bandiagara district), killing six. In Ségou region (also centre), presumed Katiba Macina militants 3 July killed three ethnic Bambaras in Kourouma Koubé village, jeopardising local truce struck in April with Bambara “Donso” militiamen. In Koulikoro region (west), unidentified gunmen 17 July raided construction site, abducted three Chinese and two Mauritanian nationals. France 2 July announced resumption of joint military operations with Mali, suspended following Goïta’s coup in May. During G5 Sahel summit, French President Macron 9 July detailed reconfiguration of French military presence in Sahel, said he would halve number of soldiers and close three military bases in Mali’s north by early 2022. Civil society actors immediately expressed concern, citing risk of jihadist takeover of key towns. UN Sec-Gen Guterres 15 July called on Security Council to increase UN Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)’s authorised strength by 2,069.

Niger emerged as France’s new privileged security partner in Sahel region; jihadist violence continued unabated in south west. During G5 Sahel virtual summit, French President Macron 9 July detailed reconfiguration of French military presence in Sahel region (see Mali), said international Takuba Task Force’s role will be enhanced and its command centre transferred from Mali to Niger; announcement, as well as Macron and Nigerien President Bazoum’s post-summit joint press conference in France’s capital Paris, signal greater role for Niger in regional security architecture. Bazoum same day criticised military junta’s takeover in Mali, prompting Bamako to immediately blame him for going against “spirit of friendship” traditionally uniting both countries. Bazoum 12-13 July visited Algeria, secured agreement for enhanced security cooperation; deal may entail military assistance from Algeria including air support. Meanwhile, in Tillabery region (south west), suspected Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) combatants 11 July stormed Tchoma Bangou village, Ouallam department; military reportedly repelled attack, killing at least 40 militants including senior ISGS commander Malam Younoussa; four soldiers and five civilians also killed. Suspected jihadists 25 and 28 July killed 33 civilians in two villages of Banibangou area, Ouallam department, and 31 July ambushed military supply mission in Torodi area, Say department, leaving 15 killed and six missing. In neighbouring Tahoua region’s Tillia department, suspected ISGS militants 4 July killed civilian in Inizdan village, and ethnic Tuareg militia 6 July abducted two ethnic Fulani individuals between internally displaced person (IDP) sites of Telemces and Assagaygay. Bazoum 2 July toured Diffa region (south east) to bolster support for his plan to relocate 130,000 IDPs, most of whom have fled region in recent years due to repeated jihadist attacks; Local authorities 30 July said over 26,000 people already returned to their hometown. Niamey 9 July said it had reached agreement with Nigeria’s Borno state to repatriate 130,000 Nigerian nationals currently living in Diffa by year’s end.

Violence continued unabated in north west, while jihadist and separatist attacks ebbed in north east and south east respectively. Armed group violence left dozens dead and scores kidnapped in north west, notably in Zamfara state: 49 killed in Maradun area 8 July; 20 farmers kidnapped in Bakura area 16 July; 150 villagers kidnapped in Shinkafi area 16-17 July; and at least 13 police killed in Bungudu area 18 July. Air force Alpha jet same day crashed after coming “under intense enemy fire” in Zamfara, leaving no casualties; unprecedented incident confirms armed groups acquiring anti-aircraft capabilities. In Katsina state, armed group 4-5 July killed at least 20 in three villages in Batsari area. In Kaduna state, gunmen 5 July abducted 121 students near state capital; armed groups 8-13 July killed 33 in Zangon Kataf area. North east saw lull in Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) attacks in Borno state as group reportedly reshuffled its leadership as directed by Islamic State (ISIS); ISWAP notably reinstated Abbah Gana as leader of so-called Islamic Caliphate of Africa straddling Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon. Suspected Boko Haram (BH) militants 7 July killed at least 18 civilians in neighbouring Adamawa state. Security forces 16-28 July reportedly killed 16 ISWAP or BH combatants, arrested 29, and rescued 40 civilians in north east. Violence between govt forces and separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra and its armed wing Eastern Security Network ebbed in south east; at least ten policemen however killed in five states throughout month. In south west, state security forces 1 July raided home of ethnic Yoruba separatist agitator, Sunday Igboho, killed two aides and arrested 13, and declared him “wanted”; Igboho arrested in Benin 19 July. Meanwhile, gunmen 15 July killed army Major General Hassan Ahmed just outside Federal Capital Territory, Abuja; 18 July killed at least ten including two humanitarian workers in Guma area, Benue state; residents blamed attack on herders. Court 28 July acquitted Ibrahim Zakzaky, leader of outlawed Shiite group Islamic Movement in Nigeria, of all eight criminal charges against him; Zakzaky had been detained since 2015.

Tigrayan forces advanced into neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions as federal and regional state govts took steps to reinforce their military capacity, making greater instability countrywide likely in coming weeks. After capturing Tigray’s capital Mekelle from federal troops in June, Tigrayan forces 4 July set conditions for ceasefire negotiations with federal govt, including withdrawal of Eritrean troops and Amhara regional forces from Tigray, independent UN probe into alleged war crimes, and “procedures” for holding PM Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki accountable for their actions in Tigray. Tigrayan forces 12 July launched southward and westward offensives with apparent view to driving ethnic Amhara forces off disputed territory, reportedly seizing Korem and Alamata towns 12-13 July; Abiy 14 July vowed to repel Tigrayan “enemies”, effectively tearing up unilateral ceasefire declared by federal govt late June; most of country’s ten regional states in following days said they would send reinforcements. Tigrayan forces 17-19 July clashed with Afar regional forces and militias in Afar regional state, leaving at least 20 civilians killed and some 54,000 displaced; 25 July said they had seized Adi Arkay town in Amhara regional state, which latter denied; Afar and Amhara regional govts 23 and 25 July called on civilians to take up arms. Tigrayan forces mid-month allegedly abducted over a dozen Eritrean refugees in Tigray’s Adi Harush camp; Tigray leaders 22 July denied targeting Eritrean refugees. Federal authorities 30 June-2 July reportedly arrested at least 11 journalists, 15-21 July temporarily suspended license of Ethiopian magazine Addis Standard for allegedly advancing Tigray leaders’ agenda; police throughout month reportedly arbitrarily detained hundreds of ethnic Tigrayans and closed Tigrayan-owned businesses across country. Elsewhere, tensions between Afar and Somali regional states in east resumed: Somali region 27 July accused militia from neighbouring Afar region of killing hundreds of civilians in contested border area 24 July. Meanwhile, electoral commission 10 July said ruling Prosperity Party had won 410 of 436 seats in federal parliament in June elections. Tensions remained high between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt as Addis Ababa completed second filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (see Nile Waters).

Top Court upheld results of May parliamentary and local elections and local NGO voiced concern over arbitrary arrests of civilians. Supreme Court 7 July certified results of late-May parliamentary and local elections, dismissing 21 legal challenges brought by defeated parliamentary candidates; parliament’s lower house expected to select new speaker within 30 days. Ruling Kulmiye party MP 26 July alleged opposition parties Waddani and Justice and Welfare Party (UCID) – which together won majority in parliament in May – tried to bribe him to vote for their candidate for speaker of parliament; both opposition parties 29 July accused President Bihi of harassing and bribing opposition MPs. Local NGO Human Rights Centre 18 July called on govt to release 42 people, most of them women, whom it said were arbitrarily detained for displaying Somalia’s flag in June; authorities next day released most of them.

Islamic State (ISIS) claimed several attacks in far north amid Rwandan offensives and arrival of Southern Africa regional forces to counter militants. In far northern Cabo Delgado province, ISIS claimed several attacks for first time since siege of Palma town in March. Notably, ISIS 13 July claimed attack on Diaca town, Mocímboa da Praia district, which likely took place 2 July, said militants had repelled govt forces’ advance on strategic Mueda-Mocímboa da Praia road; same day claimed killing soldier in Namacande district capital Muidumbe 12 July; 15 July said combatants had killed four civilians in Ncumbi village, Palma district, and clashed with govt forces on Palma-Mocímboa da Praia road in recent days; 29 July claimed six armed encounters with govt forces and self-defence militias in several districts 17-28 July, said several militia members killed. Suspected Islamist militants 2 and 18 July killed 13, mostly civilians, in Namande and Saba-Saba villages, both Muidumbe district; 15 July killed six civilians in Macomia district; and 17 July killed another five in Mitope village, Mocímboa da Praia district. In Nangade district, govt forces 13 July reportedly captured and executed 15 suspected militants attempting to cross into neighbouring Tanzania. Rwanda 9 July started deployment of 1,000-strong joint army and police force to Cabo Delgado as part of bilateral agreement. Rwandan forces 20 July clashed with militants in Quionga village, Palma district; 23 July killed 26 militants in Mandela village, Muidumbe district; 24-25 July reportedly killed seven militants in Awasse town, Mocímboa da Praia district. Meanwhile, South African Special Forces 19 July arrived in Cabo Delgado’s capital Pemba to pave way for deployment of Southern Africa regional block (SADC) Standby Force; South Africa’s President Ramaphosa 23 July confirmed his country will send “up to” 1,495 troops as part of regional force. Disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration process of former armed opposition movement Renamo forces continued, with 50 per cent threshold reached following demobilisation of 360 fighters in Tete province 11 July.

Most violent unrest since end of apartheid in 1991 killed over 300. After former President Zuma 7 July began serving 15-month prison sentence for refusing to testify in corruption probe, riots next day erupted in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces, with mobs blocking major highways, looting shops and warehouses. Protesters 11 July marched through capital Johannesburg, with acts of vandalism reported. Rioters 13 July looted warehouses and supermarkets in port city of Durban, forcing country’s largest refinery on city’s outskirts to shut down temporarily, while roads to Durban’s harbour – sub-Saharan Africa’s largest – also closed, disrupting fuel and food deliveries as well as key exports. Army 13 July announced dispatch of 25,000 troops to provinces. President Ramaphosa 16 July said calm had been restored and unrest was “deliberate, coordinated and well-planned attack on our democracy”; also announced arrest of over 2,500 people for alleged involvement in violence. Govt 22 July said 337 people killed during unrest. Zuma 19 July sought further delay of corruption trial; High Court in Pietermaritzburg city next day granted request, adjourning proceedings by three weeks to 10-13 Aug.

Series of violent incidents pitting ruling party against opposition supporters heightened tensions in lead-up to 12 Aug polls; electoral violence could worsen. Ahead of general elections scheduled for 12 Aug, climate grew increasingly tense amid reports of killings of political activists and violent clashes between supporters of incumbent President Edgar Lungu’s Patriotic Front (PF) and opposition candidate Hakainde Hichilema’s United Party for National Development (UPND). Police early July revealed investigation into Hichilema for allegedly spreading fake footage of violence against UPND supporters. Meanwhile, PF media director 22 July accused UPND of training 60,000 youths to cause violence on 10-11 Aug; UPND Sec-Gen Batuke Imenda same day denied claims. Despite official ban on political rallies to curb COVID-19 spread, reports revealed rival political parties clashed in different parts of Zambia throughout month. Notably, violence surged in Ikelenge district: as around 60 UPND supporters 23 July reportedly clashed with PF supporters, some UPND militants reportedly attacked and injured Victor Mwila, reporter of state-owned Zambia News and Information Services, who was photographing incident; authorities subsequently arrested 19 people, charging them with assault and damage to property; electoral commission 28 July banned UPND from campaigning in Ikelenge. Attackers suspected of affiliation with opposition party 30 July killed two PF supporters in Kanyama compound, Lusaka capital city; police subsequently arrested four suspects; police 13 July also revealed finding burnt body of Socialist Party candidate Stallon Chobe, who had been vying for position of council chairperson for Chisamba district, in Kapiri Mposhi town.

Authorities arrested main opposition party leader, prompting calls for protests. Main opposition party Chadema 21 July said police and army officers overnight arrested its chairperson Freeman Mbowe alongside ten other party officials who had gathered in Mwanza city to discuss need for constitutional reforms; move follows 18 July arrest of dozens of Chadema members for holding public meeting without permission. Chadema immediately accused President Suluhu Hassan of prolonging late predecessor Magufuli’s “dictatorship”, with Chadema’s former presidential candidate Tundu Lissu, who lives in exile in Europe, calling for “nationwide protests” and “international isolation” of Hassan’s govt. Authorities 26 July charged Mbowe with terrorism-related crimes. Chadema 31 July called for protests on 5 Aug, announced it had filed legal challenge against prosecution of Mbowe, saying his legal rights were violated. Meanwhile, Hassan 16-17 July completed state visit to neighbouring Burundi at invitation of Burundian counterpart Ndayishimiye; both presidents agreed to implement infrastructure projects to facilitate movement of goods, services and people, strengthen bilateral ties and business relations.

Tensions remained high in wake of anti-monarchy protests. After authorities late June quashed days of protests against King Mswati III, Africa’s last absolute monarch, UN Human Rights Office 6 July urged authorities to “fully adhere to human rights principles in restoring calm”; Local NGO reports late July said violence had left over 70 dead and 150 injured since late June. Southern Africa’s regional bloc SADC 15-22 July deployed fact-finding mission to country; delegation met with civil society and church groups but not with main opposition force PUDEMO. King Mswati III 16 July appointed Cleopas Dlamini as new PM following death of predecessor Ambrose Dlamini in Dec 2020, called protests “satanic” in his first public address since June. Police same day fired tear gas and water cannon at anti-monarchy protesters who had gathered in Manzini city to denounce PM’s appointment, reportedly leaving eight injured; right to democratically elect PM has been a core demand of protest movement. Authorities 24-25 July arrested pro-democracy legislators Bacede Mabuza and Mthandeni Dube on terrorism-related charges.

Pyongyang and Beijing reaffirmed their mutual ties while U.S. confirmed plans to hold joint military exercises with South Korea in August. After Pyongyang and Beijing late June arranged series of events to commemorate past reciprocal summits in 2018 and 2019, including joint symposium hosted by Chinese Communist Party in Chinese capital Beijing, Chinese President Xi and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un 11 July exchanged letters to commemorate and reaffirm 60th anniversary of their Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance. U.S. 15 July confirmed that it would hold joint military exercises with South Korea in August without yet specifying scale; in response, North Korean propaganda website Uriminzokkiri 20 July called exercises “scheme to invade the North” that violates 2000 and 2018 inter-Korean agreements. Two Koreas 27 July announced restoration of cross-border hotlines, indicating possible return to dialogue if/when South Korea-U.S. military drills pass uneventfully.

Cross-strait relations between Beijing and Taipei remained tense amid heated diplomatic exchanges, while Taiwan remained point of friction between U.S. and China. During speech at centenary celebrations of Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping 1 July raised “peaceful reunification” in reference to Taiwan. Taiwan officials same day issued statement on celebrations, criticising Communist Party for its “one-party dictatorship” and “interference with international order”; in turn, Beijing officials said Taiwan had “spoken outrageously”. U.S. military transport plane 15 July landed briefly in Taiwan’s capital Taipei, reportedly to deliver packages to U.S. diplomats, prompting China to rebuke U.S. for “aggravating dangerous tensions” in strait; separate U.S. military transport plane 19 July landed briefly in Taipei. China 16 July held joint amphibious landing exercises in strait. Taiwan next day conducted live-fire artillery drill, simulating response to enemy invasion. According to Taiwan’s defence ministry, total number of Chinese military aircraft that entered into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone in July reached 16, showing significant decline compared to previous months. President Tsai Ing-wen 20 July announced Taiwan would open representative office in Lithuania in “important diplomatic breakthrough”; China same day warned Lithuania against move. Earlier in month, U.S. National Security Council Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell 6 July said U.S. does not support Taiwan’s independence, but rather “strong unofficial relationship” with island. Japanese Deputy PM Tarō Asō 6 July suggested that attack on Taiwan would be interpreted as threat to Japan and would prompt Japanese military support (see Japan).

Taliban forces continued nationwide offensive, launching first assault on Kandahar city since Western intervention in 2001 and seizing more international border crossings. Taliban continued to make territorial advances throughout month, mostly in north and north west, and gained strategically important border crossings. Taliban attacks 5 July killed 16 security forces in Herat province (west), which saw all but two districts fall under Taliban control during month, and 6 July killed 65 security forces in Badghis (north west). Taliban 12 July killed 25 security forces in Kandahar province (south), in which group had encircled Kandahar city, and fighting remained ongoing in its outskirts by end of month; assault on city, largest in southern Afghanistan and de facto capital of former Taliban regime in 1990s, is first since Western intervention in 2001 and could mark moment of strategic importance in conflict; govt poured resources into defence of city. Taliban 14 July killed 11 security forces in Takhar province (north). In addition to seizing 26 of 28 districts in Badakhshan province (north east), Taliban fighters 5 July seized control of border crossing with Iran in Herat province (west) and 14 July took over border crossing with Pakistan in Kandahar province. Govt forces rebounded slightly by shoring up defence of provincial capitals. Govt 8 July briefly drove back Taliban after they entered capital of Badghis province (north west). Govt defences also held in other provinces, such as Ghazni (centre), Helmand (south) and Kandahar (south) during month. Anti-Taliban militia also rallied in urban centres, such as northern city Mazar-e Sharif. Meanwhile, peace process remained stalled despite high-level meetings between govt and Taliban’s political office in Iran’s capital Tehran (7-8 July) and Qatar’s capital Doha (17-18 July); further high-level talks expected in August. Internationally, tensions heightened with Islamabad. Afghan VP Amrullah Saleh 15 July alleged Pakistani air force requested Afghan govt not to attack Taliban positions on border, which Pakistan’s MFA denied. Kabul 18 July withdrew its ambassador and senior diplomats from Islamabad, alleging kidnapping of ambassador’s daughter.

Govt arrested thousands for allegedly violating COVID-19 restrictions amid surge in infections nationwide and inside Rohingya refugee camps. Govt 1 July extended nationwide lockdown as numbers of COVID-19 infections and deaths spiked, deploying police, border forces and army to patrol streets, leading to some 5,800 people arrested throughout month for breaching restrictions. Coronavirus cases surged inside congested Cox’s Bazar Rohingya refugee camps, with over 2,350 cases and at least 27 deaths during month. Floods and landslides caused by heavy monsoon rain in camps 25-27 July also killed at least 11 Rohingya refugees, and left more than 12,000 homeless. Authorities continued to detain Rohingya refugees fleeing Bhasan Char camp situated on flood-prone island throughout month; notably, police 11 and 17 July arrested 38 Rohingyas in Chittagong City’s Mirsarai sub-district. Police 17 July also detained 21 Rohingyas refugees near Moulvibazar district, who had reportedly entered country from India. Authorities 28 July detained nine refugees in Kurigram district for allegedly flouting COVID-19 rules. Forty-seventh session of UN Human Rights Council 11 July adopted resolution calling on Myanmar to ensure safe return of Rohingya refugees to country; Bangladesh’s envoy Mustafizur Rahman at session blamed lack of repatriation on “continued non-cooperation and reluctance of Myanmar”. Concerns over authorities stifling dissent persisted. UK 8 July reported that political and media freedoms remained restricted throughout 2020 and highlighted govt’s use of Digital Security Act to suppress criticism; Bangladesh foreign ministry 11 July summoned UK’s envoy to express its “disappointment” with report. Meanwhile, clashes between armed groups in Chittagong Hill Tracts’ Rangamati district 8 July killed one person, and counter-terrorism operations continued. Authorities 11 July arrested suspected New Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh militant in Narayanganj district; 26 July arrested 19 Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh leaders in Chittagong, accused of planning attack on govt installations. Internal Awami League clashes 26-27 July left two activists dead in Khulna and Bogra cities in lead-up to local govt polls.

Tensions remained elevated between Pakistan and India, while opposition parties in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) called for restoration of statehood ahead of local assembly elections. Pakistani National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf 4 July said backchannel contacts had been abandoned due to New Delhi’s refusal to reverse Aug 2019 revoking of J&K’s special status; Yusuf same day blamed Indian intelligence for 23 June car bombing in Pakistan’s Lahore city. India External Affairs Minister Jaishankar 18 July said India was responsible for keeping Pakistan “under the lens” of inter-govt agency Financial Action Task Force (FATF); Pakistani FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi 19 July accused India of “manipulating” FATF for “narrow political designs”. Meanwhile, counter-insurgency operations and militant attacks continued in J&K. Notably, security forces 2 July killed five militants in Pulwama district; 7 July killed alleged Hizbul Mujahideen commander in Kupwara district; 8 July killed four militants in separate operations in Kulgram and Pulwama districts; 10 July killed three militants in Anantnag district; 14 July killed three militants in Pulwama district; 16 July killed two militants in Srinagar regional capital. Indian army 8 July claimed it killed two suspected Pakistani terrorists during alleged infiltration bid in Rajouri district that left two soldiers dead. Security forces 16-31 July killed at least ten militants in Srinagar city and Baramulla, Bandipora, Pulwama and Kulgam districts; militants 27 July killed civilian in Srinagar. Tensions persisted over J&K’s statehood leading up to assembly elections. People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, J&K opposition coalition which includes National Conference and People’s Democratic Party, 5 July demanded restoration of J&K’s statehood before assembly elections. Delimitation Commission, tasked with carving out new constituencies in J&K, 6-9 July visited J&K and indicated that New Delhi planned to go ahead with elections, set to take place within 6-8 months. In Pakistan-administered Kashmir, PM Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party 25 July won Azad Jammu and Kashmir elections; poll violence left two PTI workers dead.

Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba appointed new PM after Supreme Court blocked K.P. Oli’s second attempt to dissolve parliament and ruled out prospects of early elections. Supreme Court’s Constitutional Bench 12 July overturned Oli’s 21 May bid to dissolve House of Representatives, ruling it unconstitutional; court also ruled that President Bhandari’s rejection of Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba’s attempt to form new govt in May contravened statute and ordered Deuba be appointed PM; Deuba was sworn into office 13 July. Court’s verdict was criticised by Oli, with his supporters 12 July staging protests against ruling party and Oli’s party 16 July deciding to campaign against decision. Supreme Court Bar Association 15 July expressed serious concern over Oli’s remarks as well as burning of effigies representing chief justice by his supporters. Deuba 18 July received vote of confidence in reinstated House of Representatives, preventing early general election and confirming his mandate to govern until next elections, due to be held in winter 2022.

Top officials expressed concerns over possible spillover effects of intensifying conflict in Afghanistan, while militant attacks and counter-insurgency operations continued. Senior military and political leaders expressed concern about impact on security of Afghanistan’s conflict and tensions heightened with Kabul (see Afghanistan). Army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa and intelligence chief Faiz Hameed 1 July warned victory by Afghan Taliban would rejuvenate Pakistani Taliban and voiced concerns about potential additional influx of up to 700,000 Afghan refugees. Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed 6 July said Pakistan would not allow Afghan refugees to enter but would establish refugee camps along border if situation required. Govt same day announced closure of Torkham – key border crossing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province – citing COVID-19 concerns. Authorities 14 July closed border crossing in Balochistan’s Chaman district after Afghan Taliban captured bordering district, but 26 July reopened it for trade after reportedly consulting Taliban officials. FM Qureshi and National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf 9 July warned that Pakistani Taliban fighters could enter Pakistan disguised as Afghan refugees; Army spokesperson Major General Babar Iftikhar 11 July emphasised ‘‘Pakistan is only a facilitator of the Afghan peace process – not a guarantor’’. Yusuf 30 July met U.S. counterpart Jake Sullivan in Washington; Sullivan said pair discussed “urgent need” for negotiated political settlement in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, militant attacks and security operations continued. Notably, in Balochistan province, counter-terrorism police 6 July killed five suspected Baloch militants on outskirts of Quetta district; militant attack 15 July killed two soldiers in coastal Pasni town in Gwadar district. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, police operation 3 July reportedly killed two Pakistani Taliban militants in Dera Ismail Khan district. Militant attack 5 July killed three soldiers in North Waziristan district. Security operation 13 July killed three militants and two soldiers in Kurram district. In South Waziristan district, security operation against militants 18 July killed one soldier. In major attack on Chinese workers, suspected car bomb 14 July killed nine Chinese engineers as well as two civilians and two soldiers in Upper Kohistan district capital in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province; unidentified gunmen 28 July shot and wounded Chinese national in Karachi city.

Economy remained under great pressure, while authorities used repressive practices to control growing protests. Govt continued to focus on increasingly dire economic situation as prices of staples rose, trade deficit grew, currency reserves fell and concerns persisted over potential international debt default; Money, Capital Markets and Public Enterprise Reforms Minister Ajith Nivard Cabraal 2 July rejected opposition calls for deal with International Monetary Fund to restructure debt. Basil Rajapaksa, brother of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and PM Mahinda Rajapaksa, 8 July sworn in as finance minister, promising new economic policies. Meanwhile, police 6 July announced ban on public gatherings amid growing number of protests by unions, students and farmers. Police 8 July used unusually aggressive measures to end protest outside parliament against controversial Kotelawala Defence University Act that critics say could end free higher education; police same day arrested general secretary of Ceylon Teachers Union and more than dozen trade union and student activists for violating COVID-19 health regulations; suspects sent to military-run COVID-19 quarantine centre despite being granted bail by court; all released 16 July. Former Parliamentary Speaker Karu Jayasuriya 11 July accused govt of “systematic repression” with “aim to eradicate democracy” and 17 July convened almost all opposition parties to chart strategy of resistance against govt practices. Govt 7 July appointed three-judge special court for trial of ex-Defence Secretary Hemasiri Fernando and ex-police chief Pujith Jayasundara accused of negligence for failing to prevent 2019 Easter bombings. In 12 July letter to President Rajapaksa, Catholic bishops, including Cardinal Malcolm Rogers, criticised “lethargic pace” of investigations into bombings and called on govt to prosecute “main culprits” and investigate evidence of possible larger “conspiracy”. Cabinet 19 July approved legal changes - still to be endorsed by parliament - that would allow Muslim couples to marry under ordinary marriage registration law, rather than Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act, in line with longstanding demand of women activists. COVID-19 case numbers and death rates levelled off during month but latter remained high at 40-50 per day; vaccination programme progressed significantly with substantial new supplies from abroad.

Parliament renewed Special Autonomy Law for Papua, sparking protests that led to dozens of arrests. Parliament 15 July extended by 20 years Special Autonomy Law for Papua and West Papua provinces first adopted in 2001; international rights groups TAPOL and CIVICUS 16 July said parliament amended 18 articles, added two, including on ability of central govt to create new regencies and districts, and omitted provision granting right to form local political parties. Home Affairs Minister Tito Karnavian same day said: “We hope the law will accelerate development in Papua”, but law’s opponents claimed it increases Jakarta’s control over region and criticised central govt for lack of consultation. Law sparked series of protests. Authorities 14 July arrested 23 students protesting law in Papua province’s capital Jayapura; 15 July arrested 40 protesters at rally in front of House of Representatives in capital Jakarta. In West Papua province, authorities 15 July arrested 20 protesters in Kaimana town, while reportedly blocking protest in Manokwari town; 19 July arrested 36 protesters in Sorong town. Papuan People’s Assembly 20 July filed constitutional challenge against law.

Authorities struggled to bring rising COVID-19 infections under control, while unidentified armed groups staged attacks against state electricity corporation in response to power cuts. Ruling State Administration Council throughout month faced rapidly worsening COVID-19 crisis across country, as number of confirmed cases more than doubled each week, with unofficial tallies expected to be far higher; authorities initially blamed victims for hoarding oxygen, before belatedly moving to secure consignments from China and Thailand. In response to large outbreaks of virus in northern Shan State, China continued to shutter trade crossings and 8 July closed last two crossing points near border town of Muse – cutting off around half of Myanmar’s overland trade. Meanwhile, officials in several townships began cutting power to households that have refused to pay bills either to avoid giving funds to regime or due to financial difficulties. After firing and replacing electricity workers on strike in April, State Administration Council issued outstanding bills, attempting to force residents to pay them; in response, resistance groups launched series of targeted attacks against Yangon and Mandalay electricity offices, including bomb explosions at two Yangon offices 7 July, and Mandalay office 16 July, latter killing two people – staffer and customer. Karenni Nationalities Defence Force 13 July bombed electricity offices in Kayah State capital Loikaw; in Mandalay city, resistance groups 11 July shot two electricity workers, killing one. Anti-military forces also continued to stage assassinations of regime officials and sympathisers at similar levels as June, including members of counter-resistance Pyusawhti network. Notably, resistance group in Sagaing region 14 July shot dead former MP from military-established Union Solidarity and Development Party as well as his assistant; military-appointed village administrator next day killed in Sagaing region. Amid ongoing clashes since June between rival armed groups in Shan state, main Shan political party 26 July released statement blaming both groups for violence, calling for end to hostilities and warning that behaviour of groups was undermining “Shan political struggle”. Internationally, U.S. 2 July announced additional sanctions against State Administration Council members and their immediate families, as well as military-linked companies.

Clashes in south between militant groups and security forces continued, while fighting between govt and communist militants left dozens killed. In Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao in south, clashes between insurgents and security forces took place at relatively low levels throughout month. Military 17 July clashed with elements of Daulah Islamiya-inspired armed group under Salahuddin Hassan in village of Nabundas, in Maguindanao province, killing one militant; three Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters combatants 5 July surrendered to govt in Lanao del Sur province. Military operations against elements of Islamic State-linked Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) continued; clashes between ASG members and military 10 July killed one militant on Basilanisland. Meanwhile, clashes between armed forces and communist New People’s Army (NPA) continued at relatively higher levels than June: violence in Luzon Island in north, Visayas Islands in centre and Mindanao Island in south killed at least 12 combatants and civilians and injured three throughout month. Govt 19 July declared National Democratic Front, umbrella of leftist organisations, as terrorist organisation, while Secretary of Defence Delfin Lorenzana 1 July confirmed that main spokesperson of counter-insurgency task force against communist rebels General Antonio Parlade resigned. Regarding ongoing govt efforts to rehabilitate Marawi city, Task Force Bangon Marawi Chairman Del Rosario 27 July urged member agencies to speed up work. Lorenzana 30 July announced in joint news conference with visiting U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin in capital Manila that President Duterte retracted 2020 termination of Visiting Forces Agreement, and confirmed that two nations could continue military exercises.

Pro-democracy activists held large-scale rally in capital Bangkok, while govt faced criticism for insufficient vaccine supplies as COVID-19 cases reached record highs. Over 1,000 protesters 18 July assembled in Bangkok to oppose govt’s handling of COVID-19 pandemic; as protesters attempted to reach Government House, security forces responded with water cannons, rubber bullets and tear gas; eight police officers and unknown number of demonstrators were injured. Police arrested at least 16 demonstrators. As daily COVID-19 infection rates hit record high daily tallies during month, govt faced growing public criticism for tardy, insufficient and non-transparent efforts to secure effective vaccines; Siam Bioscience, contracted by govt to produce AstraZeneca vaccine, 14 July advised public health ministry that 61mn doses scheduled for delivery by 31 Dec would be delayed until May 2022. Leaked document 18 July showed that in Sept 2020 govt ordered only six million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine per month, rather than ten million previously announced by health minister. Authorities continued to silence critics. Following pro forma apologies, state-backed Govt Pharmaceutical Organisation 14 July registered defamation complaints against two critics of govt’s slow response to pandemic; former ruling party MP 21 July asked police to investigate comments critical of govt made by over 20 celebrities; 18-year-old rapper next day reported to police to answer defamation charges related to tweets critical of PM Prayuth. Six professional media associations 28 July issued joint statement condemning govt use of emergency decree to curb free speech. Violence continued in deep south. Improvised bomb 6 July killed one soldier and wounded three more in Chana district, Songkhla province. IED attack and ambush 19 July wounded five police officers in Sai Buri district, Pattani province.

Tokyo linked for first time stability in Taiwan Strait to Japan’s security, while tensions with China over disputed islands in East China Sea continued. In notable shift in public tone, several Japanese officials openly expressed support for Taiwan and tied Japan’s security to stability in Taiwan Strait throughout month. After Japanese deputy defence minister late June called Taiwan “democratic country” during U.S. think-tank event, remarks which China 30 June called “erroneous”, Japanese Deputy PM Tarō Asō 6 July suggested Tokyo would join U.S. in defence of Taiwan in event of attack on Taiwan; China 6 July called comments “extremely wrong and dangerous”. In Defence White Paper, Japan 13 July linked stability in Taiwan Strait to Japan’s security for first time and emphasised concerns over China’s actions in East China Sea; China called paper gross interference in internal affairs. Meanwhile, U.S. and Japanese military forces 1 July conducted exercises on Japan’s Amami Ōshima island. Chinese navy 17-21 July conducted live-fire exercise in East China Sea, alongside exercises in Yellow Sea, Bohai Strait, and off coasts of China’s Fujian and Guangdong provinces. As of 28 July, 80 Chinese vessels entered into contiguous zone around disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and ten Chinese vessels entered into territorial Japan’s waters during month.

Maoist violence continued in centre and east while Indian and Chinese FMs met to discuss disengagement along disputed border. Maoist violence continued. In Chhattisgarh state (centre), Maoists killed civilian and worker of mining site in Narayanpur district; security forces 13 July killed one Maoist in Bijapur district; security forces 15 July killed three Maoists in Dantewada district; Maoists 16 July killed suspected police informer in Gariabandh district; exchange of fire with Maoists 20 July killed one member of security forces in Narayanpur district; security forces 25 July killed one Maoist in Sukma district. In Jharkhand state (east), security forces 15 July killed one Maoist in Gumla district and another 16 July in West Singhbhum district. In Odisha state (east), security forces 22 July killed one Maoist in Nuapada district. FM Subrahmanyam Jaishankar 14 July met Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi, after which India’s FMA emphasised that disengagement along Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh was not yet complete and situation was “still unresolved”; in contrast, China’s FMA claimed “overall situation in the border area was de-escalated”. Military commanders from both sides 31 July held 12th round of talks on de-escalation. Meanwhile, hostilities 26 July erupted along border of Assam and Mizoram states in north east of country between state police forces, reportedly killing six policemen; fighting follows mutual accusations of territorial encroachment. Farmers continued to protest against controversial agriculture laws. Notably, farmers 8 July held nationwide protests against fuel price hike and vowed to hold rallies outside federal parliament from 19 July. Amid widespread criticism of mishandling COVID-19 crisis after official death toll surpassed 400,000 in early July, and ahead of state and general elections due to be held before May 2024, PM Modi 7 July removed 12 members of his cabinet, including minister of health.

Maritime tensions continued amid regional military activity, while Canada, Germany and U.S. voiced support for 2016 international court ruling. Maritime activity continued in region. U.S. navy 12 July announced that destroyer USS Benfold conducted freedom of navigation operation near Paracel Islands “to uphold rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of sea recognised in international law”; in response, China’s Southern Theatre Command same day claimed its forces “drove away” USS Benfold from waters and urged U.S. to stop “provocative actions”. China’s Southern Theatre Command 18 July announced it had recently conducted exercise in SCS that included planes, ships, submarines and land-based missiles. Philippines’ Coast Guard 13 July issued verbal challenge to Chinese naval vessel near Marie Louise Bank; Chinese vessel eventually moved away from area. UK aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth 30 July arrived in SCS to conduct freedom of navigation operations alongside U.S. navy. Earlier in month, think-tank Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative 8 July reported China Coast Guard had regularly challenged Malaysian pipe-laying vessel contracted to Malaysian oil company Petronas at Kasawari gas field, off of Sarawak state coast, since its arrival in area early June. On diplomatic front, German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer 6 July met with Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe via video conference and discussed SCS; Kramp-Karrenbauer raised importance of upholding 2016 arbitration decision by Permanent Court of Arbitration that limited China’s claims to some sea areas, which China has called null and void. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 11 July issued statement to mark fifth anniversary of court’s ruling and reaffirmed U.S. support for verdict; Blinken also stated that “armed attack on Philippines armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in South China Sea would invoke U.S. mutual defence commitments”. Canada’s foreign ministry 11 July issued statement expressing concern at “China’s escalatory and destabilising actions in the East and South China Seas” and support for 2016 arbitral tribunal award. U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin 26-30 July visited Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam; in Singapore, Austin 27 July said China’s SCS claims have “no basis in international law”.

Papua New Guinea Bougainville govt and national govt of PNG pledged to conclude final political settlement by 2027. Following Dec 2019 non-binding referendum in which Bougainville electorate overwhelmingly voted for independence from PNG, PM Marape and president of Autonomous Region of Bougainville Ishmael Toroama 6 July reportedly agreed timetable for process related to transfer of powers to Bougainville authorities by 2023; in joint statement, both sides pledged support for final political settlement “no earlier than 2025 and no later than 2027”.

Skirmishes broke out on Kyrgyz-Tajik border amid concerns over border security with Afghanistan. Kyrgyz and Tajik forces 8 July reportedly exchanged gunfire along border in Leilek district, Batken region, killing one Kyrgyz border guard; guards 24 July reportedly exchanged fire on border between Batken oblast and Tajikistan’s Sughd region. Kyrgyz authorities 29 July reportedly confirmed that in recent meetings with Tajik counterparts, sides delimited/demarcated additional 40km of border. Collective Security Treaty Organization Parliamentary Assembly 1 July convened in Tajik capital Dushanbe and expressed concern over intensity of fighting in Afghanistan. State Committee for National Security head Kamchybek Tashiev 8 July said withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan posed risks to country, particularly as “terrorist organizations have moved to an active phase of their activities in the Central Asian countries”.

Skirmishes broke out on Tajik-Kyrgyz border while instability in Afghanistan continued to raise security concerns. Tajik and Kyrgyz forces 8 July reportedly exchanged gunfire along border in Leilek district, Batken region, killing one Kyrgyz border guard; guards 24 July reportedly exchanged fire on border between Sughd region and Kyrgyzstan’s Batken oblast. Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Parliamentary Assembly 1 July convened in capital Dushanbe and expressed concern over intensity of fighting in Afghanistan. FM Sirojiddin Muhriddin 1 July met U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken in U.S. capital Washington where pair discussed situation in Afghanistan and Blinken “affirmed the U.S. commitment to Tajikistan’s security, stability, and territorial integrity”. President Rahmon 5 July ordered 20,000 reserve officers to Afghan border. After Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 7 July expressed willingness to use capabilities of Russian military base on Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan “to prevent any aggressive impulses”, govt same day requested CSTO support and assistance to strengthen Tajik-Afghan border, two thirds of which govt says is under Taliban control. Deputy head of emergencies committee 23 July said govt was preparing to receive up to 100,000 Afghan refugees.

Govt considered U.S. request to accept Afghan refugees following high-level meeting that reaffirmed shared interests. FM Abdulaziz Kamilov 1 July met U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken in U.S. capital Washington, after which Blinken said: “We have strong shared interests when it comes to security in the region, particularly with regard to Afghanistan”. Senior official 22 July said there existed no legal basis to agree to U.S. request to accept Afghan refugees who had cooperated with U.S., saying matter “cannot be decided immediately”.

Turkish Cypriot leader announced plan to take civilian control of area under Turkish military since 1974, sparking widespread international opposition, while maritime tensions continued. Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar 20 July announced that Turkish military would hand over 3.5-sq km section of sealed-off quarter of Varosha/Maraş to civilian “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (TRNC) control and Greek Cypriot property owners could apply to Turkish Cypriot administration for reparations. Announcement sparked international criticism: Republic of Cyprus President Anastasiades called plan “illegal and unacceptable” and Greek MFA 20 July condemned action “in the strongest terms”, while UK, U.S., Germany and EU 20-22 July voiced strong opposition; UN Security Council 23 July unanimously called for “immediate reversal” of steps. EU 27 July condemned “Turkey’s unilateral steps”, prompting Turkish foreign ministry same day to call EU position “biased”. President Erdoğan 19-20 July visited “TRNC”, announcing plans to construct new govt complex for political leadership of “TRNC”. In maritime domain, Turkish Petroleum Corporation 9 July applied for new exploration licence in three areas off coast of Silifke in Mersin province, in zone that also includes significant parts of Greek Cypriot-claimed Exclusive Economic Zone. Tensions rose after Greek Cypriot police 16 July accused Turkish Cypriot Coast Guard vessel of firing warning shots at Greek Cypriot Coast Guard patrol in island’s northern gulf of Morphou, while allegedly violating Greek Cypriot territorial waters; Greek Cypriot official Marios Pelekanos said: “There is no excuse for this behaviour by the Turkish vessel”, while “TRNC” Security Forces Command called incident “fake news”. Meanwhile, Turkey and “TRNC” intensified efforts to secure diplomatic recognition of “TRNC”. Consular team of Pakistan embassy in Turkey 11 July conducted official three-day visit to de facto administration in north while Azerbaijani parliamentarians 16 July visited “TRNC”. UN Security Council 29 July extended mandate of UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus for six months until 31 Jan 2022.

President Erdoğan made rhetorical overtures to Kurds, while military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK); authorities arrested dozens of suspected jihadists. President Erdoğan 9 July visited majority-Kurdish province of Diyarbakır, announcing govt had “launched the solution process” and promising “no more blood would spill”; Erdoğan also announced new project to turn Diyarbakır prison – infamous site where thousands of Kurds allegedly suffered torture during early 1980s – into cultural centre, provoking criticism from ultra-nationalist voices. Constitutional Court 1 July ruled that rights of unseated pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) MP Ömer Faruk Gergerlioğlu had been violated after parliament in March stripped him of MP status; police forcefully dispersed HDP protests in front of his prison complex before his 6 July release; parliament 16 July reinstated his MP status. Gunman 14 July attacked HDP’s district office in southern district of Marmaris; authorities in following days detained alleged gunman and four other suspects. Meanwhile, Turkish military continued operations against PKK in northern Iraq. Notably, Turkish media 26 July reported so-called Hakurk logistics area manager of PKK was killed in northern Iraq’s Hakurk region late June; PKK had not yet confirmed his death by end of month. In northern Syria, defence ministry 24 July confirmed two Turkish soldiers were killed and two wounded in People’s Protection Units (YPG)/PKK-attributed attack on their armoured vehicle in Turkish-controlled territory; NGO Syrian Observatory for Human Rights same day reported death of three Turkish soldiers from alleged YPG shelling in rural Aleppo. Security forces continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) across country. Police detained more than 140 individuals, most Syrian and Iraqi, for alleged ISIS ties throughout July. Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu 14 July announced that since July 2016 coup, authorities had “neutralised” 1,523 ISIS members and foiled three attacks in 2021.

Tensions with Azerbaijan rose along state border with deadliest clashes since Autumn 2020 war; fighting could intensify in coming weeks. On international border, despite striking second deal to exchange prisoners and mine maps (see Nagorno-Karabakh), Armenia and Azerbaijan traded unprecedented number of accusations of ceasefire violations during month as exchanges of fire occurred almost daily, primarily in Gegharkunik/Kelbajar and Yeraskh/Nakhchivan regions of state border of two republics. Fighting 6-26 July killed at least one Azerbaijani and one Armenian, and wounded three Azerbaijanis and five Armenians (one of whom remains in critical condition). Azerbaijan 14-15 July also claimed that Armenian forces inside conflict zone had fired at their positions in Shusha town. Deadliest clashes since Autumn 2020 escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh 27-28 July erupted on international border; Armenian foreign ministry accused Azerbaijani armed forces of infiltrating its territory and attacking its military positions; Baku confirmed incident left two Azerbaijani soldiers wounded and Yerevan said three Armenian soldiers were killed and six wounded. Armenian defence ministry 28 July confirmed Russian peacekeepers brokered ceasefire, which remained in force by end of month despite continued exchanges of fire; concerns remained that fighting could resume in August. Earlier in month, Armenia objected to Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) secretary general’s 3 July characterisation of standoff with Azerbaijan as “border incident”, thus ruling out triggering of CSTO’s collective defence clause; Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan 6 July responded that “border incidents cannot last two months”. PM Pashinyan 7 July met with Russian President Putin to discuss security concerns along border. President of European Council Charles Michel 18 July said EU was ready to support border demarcation efforts. Meanwhile, after opposition bloc Armenia Alliance 2 July requested Constitutional Court to overturn June parliamentary election result, court 17 July upheld Central Election Commission’s decision to award election victory to PM Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party; opposition parties decided to take their seats in new parliament, due to hold its first session on 2 August.

Tensions with Armenia rose along state border with deadliest clashes since Autumn 2020 war; fighting could intensify in coming weeks. On international border, despite striking second deal to exchange prisoners and mine maps (see Nagorno-Karabakh), Armenia and Azerbaijan traded unprecedented number of accusations of ceasefire violations during month as exchanges of fire occurred almost daily, primarily in Gegharkunik/Kelbajar and Yeraskh/Nakhchivan regions of state border of two republics. Fighting 6-26 July killed at least one Azerbaijani and one Armenian, and wounded three Azerbaijanis and five Armenians (one of whom remains in critical condition). Azerbaijan 14-15 July claimed that Armenian forces inside conflict zone had fired at their positions in Shusha town. Deadliest clashes since Autumn 2020 escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh 27-28 July erupted on international border; Armenian foreign ministry accused Azerbaijani armed forces of infiltrating its territory and attacking its military positions; Baku confirmed incident left two Azerbaijani soldiers wounded and Yerevan said three Armenian soldiers were killed and six wounded. Armenian defence ministry 28 July confirmed Russian peacekeepers brokered ceasefire, which remained in force by end of month despite continued exchanges of fire; concerns remained that fighting could further resume in August. Earlier in month, President Aliyev 7 July signed decree to re-organise economic regions establishing new regions “Karabakh” – including territories partly controlled by Russian peacekeepers and areas not under Azerbaijani control such as Stepanakert and Khojaly cities – and “East Zangezur”. Since 20 June Armenian election that handed victory to PM Pashinyan, Baku intensified calls for peace deal with Armenia and mutual recognition of territorial integrity and borders; Aliyev 14 July warned it would be “a very big mistake” for Armenia to refuse peace negotiations.

Far-right mob attacks at Pride event in capital Tbilisi undermined political reconciliation deal; engagement between Tbilisi and breakaway territories displayed some positive signs. Pride march 5 July held in capital Tbilisi, but quickly sparked backlash from far-right demonstrators who clashed with pro-LGBTQ+ participants, leaving over 50 journalists injured; organisers same day cancelled march in light of near-absent police protection and far-right attacks. PM Gharibashvili same day claimed “radical opposition” led by former President Saakashvili was behind march to spread unrest; authorities’ failure to prevent violence sparked international criticism, including from Western embassies, along with EU and UN representatives. Political tensions heightened further after confirmation that cameraman Aleksandre Lashkarava had died 11 July from injuries suffered during 5 July disorder; 19 civil society organisations immediately called on Gharibashvili and Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri to resign, while hundreds 11-12 July protested in Tbilisi, and smaller protest took place in Black Sea port city Batumi, demanding PM’s resignation; in Tbilisi, scuffles 12 July broke out between govt and opposition MPs in parliament. Reconciliation deal between govt and opposition faced further strains after govt 12 July appointed six Supreme Court judges in contravention of April agreement, sparking criticism from EU and U.S. officials 14-15 July. Amid growing political turmoil, ruling Georgian Dream party 28 July announced that it considers EU-brokered April deal “annulled”. Meanwhile, following 53rd round of Geneva International Discussions held late June, Inguri crossing between breakaway Abkhazia region and Tbilisi-controlled territory 5 July reopened after 478-day closure due to COVID-19. Georgian and South Ossetia representatives 8 July agreed technical solution to cross-line water supply issues. As part of exchange of detainees, South Ossetian de facto leader Anatoly Bibilov 14 July pardoned Georgian citizen Zaza Gakheladze who was detained in July 2020.

International High Representative for Bosnia imposed ban on genocide denial, prompting Bosnian Serb representatives to announce boycott of state institutions. In one of his final acts in office, outgoing head of Bosnia’s Office of the High Representative (OHR), Austrian diplomat Valentin Inzko, 23 July imposed change in Bosnian criminal law, outlawing denial of 1995 Srebrenica genocide and imposing up to five years imprisonment for genocide denial and glorification of war criminals; OHR is mandated with implementation of 1995 Dayton peace agreement and empowered to enact laws and remove elected officials. Bosnian Serb leader and member of joint presidency Milorad Dodik same day rejected decree and reportedly threatened “dissolution” of Bosnia. Bosnian Serb political representatives from all political parties in Republika Srpska’s National Assembly 27 July began boycott of joint presidency, parliament and govt until withdrawal of decision. Republika Srpska parliament 30 July passed laws blocking approval of Inzko’s decision and permitting up to 15 years imprisonment for “violating the reputation of the Republika Srpska”. Previously, Russia in draft resolution co-sponsored by China called for UN Security Council to abolish OHR by July 2022; resolution 22 July failed to pass. Meanwhile, police 14 July arrested intelligence chief Osman Mehmedagic for alleged money laundering, abuse of office and document forgery; hundreds next day protested in front of State Prosecutor’s Office in capital Sarajevo in show of support for Mehmedagic.

EU-led Belgrade-Pristina talks continued in Brussels, concluding without significant progress. Following talks in June, PM Kurti and Serbian President Vučić 19 July participated in their second face-to-face meeting as part of Belgrade-Pristina dialogue hosted by EU in Belgian capital Brussels; dialogue focused on missing persons and other issues. After closing of talks, EU Special Representative Miroslav Lajčak 20 July said “very little progress” had been made, with both parties accusing other of unwillingness to make compromise; parties agreed to resume talks in Sept. Vučić 20 July told media that Serbia had accepted points in EU proposal reportedly refused by Kurti, such as bolstering efforts to identify remains of missing persons, refraining from destabilising actions, and holding monthly meetings to prepare for high-level talks; Kurti same day stated, however, that Vučić had rejected his six-point “Declaration of Peace” along with request for elimination of alleged barriers to free trade. Parliament 7 July adopted resolution condemning 1995 Srebrenica massacre and recognising it as genocide; representatives from Serb party boycotted vote.

Deadly fighting intensified in Donbas conflict zone, while Kyiv expressed frustration over U.S. and German handling of Nord Stream II gas pipeline. In Donbas conflict zone, fighting escalated. Notably, Ukrainian side reported shelling of its command posts in Donetsk and Luhansk regions with heavy weapons, killing three and injuring 11 servicemen on 13 and 26 July; armed groups reported seven fighters killed by Ukrainian army shelling on 28 and 30 July. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe special representative 22 July noted sustained increase in use of heavy weapons. Death toll and number of casualties also rose compared to previous months: Ukrainian govt forces suffered eight combat deaths and 32 injuries throughout July, per official sources; Russian-backed forces lost ten fighters and 14 suffered injuries, per reports from de facto officials; two civilians received shrapnel injuries per de facto and Ukrainian reports. Meanwhile, U.S.-German talks on Nord Stream II pipeline provoked controversy among Ukrainian officials as U.S. officials formally ended opposition to new pipeline, which is nearly completed, and is due to bypass existing Ukrainian pipeline and reduce associated Ukrainian revenues from transit of Russian gas. U.S. and Germany 20 July issued joint statement in which Berlin committed “to utilize all available leverage to facilitate an extension of up to ten years to Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia, including appointing a special envoy to support these negotiations”; Berlin also pledged “to establish and administer” over $1bn Green Fund for Ukraine to support Kyiv’s transition away from fossil fuels. In response, FM Dmytro Kuleba next day released joint statement with Polish counterpart calling unnamed “proposals” to tackle potential security fallout from pipeline insufficient; in open letter, Parliament Speaker Dmitry Razumkov 22 July urged U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to maintain all pertinent sanctions as well as possibly levying new ones to prevent “completion and commissioning” of pipeline. Washington 21 July announced that first meeting between Presidents Biden and Zelenskyy would take place 30 August, when Zelenskyy is expected to press for larger U.S. role in Donbas peace process. Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s longest-ever serving interior minister, 14 July resigned following years of corruption allegations. President Zelenskyy 27 July dismissed Commander of Ukrainian Armed Forces Ruslan Khomchak.

Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to second deal exchanging Armenian detainees for landmine maps amid ongoing diplomatic tensions and border hostilities. In second deal of its kind since June, talks under Russian auspices led Baku 3 July to release 15 Armenian detainees in exchange for Armenian landmine maps of Fuzuli and Zangilan districts. Tensions with Yerevan rose, however, after Azerbaijani govt 10 July organised visit with diplomatic delegations and international organisations in Azerbaijan to Shusha town; Azerbaijani pro-govt media and social media accounts immediately criticised absence of U.S., French and Russian ambassadors from visit, said it proved failure of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group to make diplomatic progress. Armenian foreign ministry 13 July praised U.S., France and Russia for not joining trip, stated that it deemed visit to Shusha – which it called “occupied territory” – unacceptable. Azerbaijan 14-15 July claimed that Armenian forces inside conflict zone had fired at their positions in Shusha town. Hostilities and tensions rose along state border as both sides claimed unprecedented number of ceasefire violations including regular exchanges of fire throughout July (see Armenia and Azerbaijan). Meanwhile, Azerbaijan welcomed U.S. participation in peace process; in letter to U.S. President Biden, Azerbaijani President Aliyev 3 July invited U.S. to help establish lasting peace and trust between Baku and Yerevan, adding: “We would like to see U.S. companies as partners” in reconstruction work in Nagorno-Karabakh. OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs 13 July called for resumption of high-level political dialogue; Aliyev next day warned it would be “a very big mistake” for Armenia to refuse peace negotiations and Armenian PM Pashinyan 15 July responded that Yerevan was ready to resume peace talks under auspices of OSCE Minsk Group, while accusing Azerbaijan of “destructive actions and statements”. President Aliyev 7 July signed decree establishing new economic regions that include territories not under Azerbaijani control (see Azerbaijan).

Opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya sought greater U.S. support as govt stepped up crackdown on independent media. Opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya visited U.S. capital Washington and 28 July met U.S. President Biden who declared U.S. “stands with the people of Belarus in their quest for democracy and universal human rights”; earlier, Tsikhanouskaya 19-20 July met U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, said she had requested U.S. “to be the guarantors of our independence” and “politically pressure the regime”. Meanwhile, authorities 8-9 July raided offices of multiple media outlets, reportedly arresting 32 individuals. NGO Human Rights Watch 15 July accused govt of “massive, unprecedented raids and detentions against the Belarus human rights community” after authorities arrested at least 12 activists across ten cities previous day. Belarusian Association of Journalists, largest media association in country, 21 July said ministry of justice had filed lawsuit at Supreme Court in attempt to “liquidate” organisation. Court 27 July labelled Polish-funded news channel Belsat “extremist”, ordering its website and social media accounts be blocked. Lithuanian FM Gabrielius Landsbergis 2 July accused govt of seeking “to weaponize migration to weaken our resolve for sanctions” and Lithuanian PM Ingrida Šimonytė 7 July accused Belarusian govt of offering migrants from third countries flights to capital Minsk in order to transit across border into Lithuania; in letter to EU member states publicised 29 July, EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson described developments on border as “unacceptable instrumentalization of people for political purposes”; Lithuania border services 27 July revealed that over 2,300 migrants had been detained in July along border with Belarus, bringing number of detained migrants since Jan 2021 to 3,027 – compared to 81 in 2020.

Authorities continued crackdown on independent media and opposition, and launched security operations against jihadist networks. Authorities continued to impose restrictions on independent media and NGOs operating inside country. Notably, Prosecutor General’s Office 15 July declared independent media outlet Proekt “undesirable organization”, making it first media outlet to receive status. Independent association of lawyers and journalists Team 29 18 July announced its closure, fearing criminal prosecution after authorities blocked its website; Team 29 had represented in court imprisoned opposition figure Alexei Nalvany’s organisations as well as former journalist Ivan Safronov, accused of treason. At request of Prosecutor General’s Office, federal agency for mass media (Roskomnadzor) 26 July blocked access to websites associated with Navalny, citing “promotion” of “prohibited extremist activities”; agency also requested Google to block YouTube channels of Nalvany’s associates. Meanwhile in North Caucasus, security forces 3 July launched security operation in Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, killing total of five militants. Elsewhere, security forces 7 July reported on late June-early July operations in Penza, Ufa and Chelyabinsk cities, which led to capture of four leaders and 11 members of international jihadist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami. Security forces 9 July arrested suspected Islamic State militant plotting attack in Moscow region and 15 July arrested individual allegedly plotting attack in capital Moscow.

Criminal groups continued to fight for control of trafficking routes in several states. In Zacatecas state (centre north), clashes between alleged members of Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG) and Sinaloa Cartel 1 July left 30 dead outside San Juan Capistrano town. In Chiapas state (south), suspected CJNG members 7 July killed five Sinaloa Cartel members, including son of former cartel chief in Chiapas, in drive-by shooting in state capital Tuxtla Gutiérrez. Also in Chiapas, unidentified armed men 5 July shot and killed indigenous leader and human rights defender Simón Pedro Pérez López in Simojovel town; clashes 7 July erupted between drug-trafficking gangs and newly formed self-defence group in Chenalhó and Pentalhó municipalities, and gunmen 9 July ambushed military and police officers on their way to Pentalhó, leaving nine injured; suspected self-defence group 26 July raided Pentalhó and abducted 21 people; violence in area reportedly displaced thousands throughout month. Meanwhile in Tamaulipas state (north), three warring Gulf Cartel factions 26 July announced truce. Entire municipal administration-elect of Penjamillo municipality, Michoacán state (centre), 1 July announced it would not assume office; move comes after suspected criminal group kidnapped mayor-elect and killed two of his close collaborators following 6 June elections. In Mexico state (centre), federal authorities 5 July arrested former high-ranking federal police officer Luís Cárdenas Palomino over torture allegations. Meanwhile, Mexican news outlet Latinus 8 July released video reportedly showing President López Obrador’s brother Martín Jesús receiving large amount of cash from state official in 2015, when López Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement first participated in elections; Latinus said cash was never reported to electoral authorities, and could amount to campaign finance violation; López Obrador next day said video was part of smear campaign to discredit him.

Inter-American rights body accused authorities of excessive force in handling of anti-govt protests, while transitional justice mechanism brought charges against military personnel for first time. Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 7 July condemned authorities’ “excessive and disproportionate use of force…including lethal force” to suppress anti-govt protests that kicked off in late April, said security forces arbitrarily detained civilians and engaged in ethnic discrimination, and recommended transfer of National Police from defence to interior ministry. President Duque same day rejected accusations. Thousands 20 July marched in several cities including capital Bogotá, Medellín and Cali in bid to revive street protests, demanding police reform and greater economic assistance amid COVID-19 pandemic; ombudsman’s office next day said clashes between protesters and police had left 24 civilians and 26 security personnel injured, while police reported 70 people arrested. Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP, established under peace deal between govt and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) to handle cases deriving from conflict) 6 July accused ten military personnel and one civilian of involvement in killings of at least 120 civilians in Catatumbo region, Norte de Santander department (east), between Jan 2007 and Aug 2008; move marks first time JEP has indicted soldiers in connection with so-called “false positives” scandal, in which soldiers murdered civilians and classified them as rebels killed in combat. Civil society monitor Indepaz reported alarming rate of violence against social leaders, with at least 18 killed 1-25 July. Guerrilla group National Liberation Army (ELN) and FARC dissidents early July reportedly clashed in Bolívar department (north), leaving seven killed. Govt forces 5-6 July killed at least five FARC dissidents in airstrike in Caquetá department (south). Ombudsman’s office 29 July requested govt protection for 1,300 minors among 4,100 displaced people fleeing clashes between armed groups in Ituango municipality, Antioquia department (north west) since 22 July. Authorities 22 July said they had arrested ten individuals for alleged involvement in June attacks on military base and Duque’s helicopter, said orders came from FARC dissidents operating from Venezuela; suspects include one former military officer and one National Protection Unit official.

President Maduro launched fresh crackdown on opposition in wake of deadly clashes between gangs and govt forces. Security forces 7-11 July launched offensive against organised crime gangs that control parts of capital Caracas; govt 10 July said fighting had left at least 26 dead, including four security officers and several civilians, and 38 injured; Maduro same day accused opposition and neighbouring Colombia of having armed and financed gangs to overthrow or assassinate him. Intelligence service 12 July arrested Freddy Guevara, close ally of mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó, on charges of terrorism and treason in relation to 7-11 July violence; Guaidó same day claimed armed security officers tried to detain him at his home in Caracas. Authorities in following days issued arrest warrants against several members of Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party over accusations of involvement in 7-11 July gang violence and 14 July arrested three family members of one of them, Javier González, prompting party official Emilio Graterón to take refuge in Chilean embassy 17 July. Meanwhile, Maduro 13 July and 24 July said he was willing, under certain conditions, to negotiate with opposition in Aug with view to resolving political crisis. Earlier in month, police 2 July detained NGO Fundaredes Director Javier Tarazona and two other Fundaredes activists in Falcón state (north west), after NGO alleged links between govt officials and armed groups from Colombia; UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 5 July condemned “worrying example” of restriction of civil space. Washington 12 July announced minor relaxation of sanctions, allowing Venezuela to import liquid petroleum gas. EU mission 8 July arrived in Caracas to assess conditions to deploy observation mission ahead of Nov regional and local elections. Maduro 4 July gave World Health Organization’s COVAX vaccine-sharing programme “ultimatum” to send doses or return money paid by Venezuela. Following April deal with govt, UN World Food Programme 6 July began distributing meals to schoolchildren. Tensions with Colombia remained high. Bogotá 22 July said Venezuela-based Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia dissidents were behind June assassination attempt on President Duque; Duque 26 July called on EU to declare Maduro’s govt “promoter of terrorism”.

Tensions ran high over govt’s handling of COVID-19 pandemic and following dismissal of chief prosecutor against corruption. Amid growing discontent with govt’s handling of COVID-19, particularly in relation to test and vaccine procurement, around 300 protesters 10 July demonstrated in capital Guatemala City demanding resignation of President Giammattei. Giammattei 12 July vowed to crack down on “illegal demonstrations”, accused protesters of “spreading the virus”, and next day issued decree empowering police to break up any protest not complying with health security measures. VP Guillermo Castillo 14 July criticised move, saying govt should “get more vaccines…rather than limiting constitutional rights”. Meanwhile, attorney general 23 July dismissed top anti-corruption prosecutor, Special Prosecutor’s Office Against Impunity (FECI) head Juan Francisco Sandoval, accusing him of “abuses”; FECI, which was created to tackle investigations initially spearheaded by UN-backed International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala, disbanded by Guatemalan government in 2019, recently faced several legal challenges seeking to revoke its mandate. Sandoval immediately said he would challenge “illegal dismissal”, 24 July fled to neighbouring El Salvador “to safeguard his life”. Hundreds same day protested Sandoval’s removal outside presidential palace in Guatemala City and reiterated call for Giammattei’s resignation. Following calls for national strike by main indigenous and student groups, thousands 29-30 July marched and blocked highways across country, particularly in Totonicapán department (west). U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 25 July said Sandoval’s dismissal “undermines the rule of law”, and Washington 27 July announced temporary suspension of programmatic cooperation with Attorney General’s Office.

Assassination of President Moïse plunged country into political turmoil. Acting PM Claude Joseph 7 July said well-trained commando broke into Moïse’s residence in capital Port-au-Prince overnight, killing him and wounding his wife. Police 7-8 July reportedly confronted suspects in Port-au-Prince, killing three Colombian nationals and detaining 20 other individuals, most of them former Colombian military officers. Joseph 7 July claimed he was “in charge” of country, declared state of emergency and closed Port-au-Prince airport; also requested U.S. and UN to send troops to help protect key infrastructures; U.S. President Biden 15 July turned down request and UN official mid-month said UN Security Council did not intend to discuss request. Ariel Henry, who had been appointed by Moïse as new PM early July but not formally sworn in, 8 July claimed he was rightful PM and asked Joseph to return to his post as FM. Police 11 July arrested Florida-based Haitian Doctor Christian Sanon – who had returned to Haiti in June – on accusations of masterminding Moïse’s assassination; authorities 13 July issued arrest warrants for several other individuals suspected of masterminding attack, including one former senator, and police chief 14 July said precautionary measures had been put in place against 24 police officers assigned to presidential security; police 26 July arrested head of Moïse’s security team and issued arrest warrant for former Supreme Court judge. Core Group, comprising representatives from UN Sec-Gen office, U.S., EU, France, Germany, Canada, Brazil, Spain and Organization of American States, 17 July urged Henry to form “consensual and inclusive” govt. Joseph 19 July announced he would step down as PM; Henry next day sworn in as PM and acting president. Violent protests 23 July marred Moïse’s funeral in northern city of Cap-Haïtien, with police firing tear gas to disperse hundreds of protesters demanding justice for Moïse. Henry 28 July vowed to hold presidential and legislative elections, slated for Sept, “as quickly as possible”. Meanwhile, Haitians by month’s end made up majority of over 10,000 U.S.-bound migrants stranded in Colombia’s Necocli municipality following reopening of South American borders.

Security forces cracked down on largest anti-govt protests in decades amid worsening economic crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. Thousands 11 July protested across country including in capital Havana and Santiago city, calling for President Díaz-Canel to step down; demonstrators voiced anger over shortages of food and medicines, restriction of civil liberties and authorities’ handling of COVID-19 pandemic amid record surge in cases; security forces accused protesters of looting and vandalising shops, and rights group Cubalex reported 100 protesters, activists and journalists detained nationwide. Díaz-Canel next day blamed protests on “economic asphyxiation” from U.S., said U.S.-financed “counter-revolutionaries” were fomenting unrest. U.S. President Biden 12 July said U.S. “stands firmly with the people of Cuba” in their quest for “freedom from an authoritarian regime”, and Mexican President López Obrador same day called on U.S. to “suspend the blockade of Cuba” as “humanitarian gesture”. Renewed protest 12 July erupted in Havana suburb of La Guinera, leaving one dead and several injured, including security forces officers. Internet watchdog NetBlocks 13 July said govt had restricted access to social media and messaging platforms, while Conference of Catholic Bishops of Cuba same day defended demonstrators’ right to “publicly express” needs, urging govt to listen. Díaz-Canel next day acknowledged for first time shortcomings in govt’s handling of shortages. Thousands 17 July attended govt-organised rally in Havana to support Cuban revolution and denounce U.S. embargo. Cuban Institute for the Freedom of Expression and the Press mid-July said at least 47 journalists had been arrested since protests started; judicial authorities said 59 people had been tried by 24 July for taking part in protests, while Cubalex estimated that nearly 700 had been arrested by 26 July, 157 of whom had been released. U.S. 22 July imposed sanctions, including asset freezes and travel bans, on Security Minister Gen. Alvaro López Mier and a special forces unit for alleged human rights violations during protests.

Despite new sanctions against President Ortega’s close allies, detentions of opposition and civil society leaders continued ahead of Nov general elections; tensions mounted within opposition. Security forces 5 July arrested three rural (campesino) leaders, including presidential hopeful Medardo Mairena, and two student activists for allegedly undermining country’s sovereignty; 24 July placed another presidential hopeful, Noel Vidaurre, and journalist Jaime Arellano under house arrest; 27-29 July arrested opposition umbrella organisation Blue and White National Unity leader José Antonio Peraza, former FM Francisco Aguirre Sacasa and human rights defender María Oviedo. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell 6 July threatened “more restrictive” measures against Ortega’s govt, while EU Parliament 8 July approved resolution asking for immediate release of all political prisoners, calling on EU Council to expand sanctions against Ortega and his inner circle. U.S. State Dept 12 July imposed visa restrictions on 100 members of National Assembly and judicial system for allegedly “undermining democracy”. Canada 14 July imposed economic sanctions on 15 govt officials in response to “systematic human rights violations”. Meanwhile, friction mounted among opposition forces. Citizens for Freedom (CxL) party, allied with other opposition group Civic Alliance, 26 July said it will appoint its own VP, Óscar Sobalvarro, as presidential candidate (which it did 28 July). Following announcement, several prominent Civic Alliance figures, as well as Civic Alliance local chapters, said they will not run for parliament for CxL.

Uncertainty persisted over electoral process, opposition to tax-free economic zones continued, and U.S. sanctioned officials for alleged corruption. National Electoral Council 13 July warned general elections scheduled for Nov are at risk since Congress has not yet approved funds to implement provisions foreseen in May electoral reforms. Opposition to govt’s plan to install more tax-free Zones for Employment and Economic Development (ZEDEs) continued to mount. Several social and peasant organisations 14 July staged rallies in capital Tegucigalpa and La Ceiba city (north) to demand that all municipalities be declared free of ZEDEs, arguing that they do not produce employment and could lead to displacement of vulnerable populations. National Anti-Corruption Council 19 July presented legislative proposal to repeal current ZEDEs law. Unidentified gunmen 6 July killed peasant and human rights defender Juan Manuel Moncada in Colón department (north); UN human rights office in Honduras 8 July called for prompt and impartial investigation and urged govt to take “necessary measures” to protect peasant leaders and rights defenders. Tegucigalpa High Court 5 July found former head of construction firm DESA, David Castillo, guilty of masterminding killing of environmental activist Berta Cáceres in 2016; Cáceres had led opposition to DESA’s dam project. U.S. State Dept 1 July imposed visa restrictions on 21 senior Honduran politicians, including 13 lawmakers, over accusations of corruption, obstructing justice, or undermining democracy; 20 July announced visa restrictions on former President Pepe Lobo and his immediate relatives for alleged corruption.

Amid preparations for 2022 elections, tensions between armed forces and Congress resurfaced and President Bolsonaro claimed electronic voting allows fraud. Defence minister, retired Gen. Walter Braga Netto, 7 July released statement alongside army, navy and air force commanders condemning Senator Omar Aziz’s speech in which he denounced “rotten side of the military” involved in corruption, and saying he would not accept such attacks; Aziz chairs parliamentary commission investigating Bolsonaro’s handling of coronavirus pandemic. Air force commander Carlos Almeida Baptista 9 July reiterated condemnation of Aziz but denied any coup threat, saying “armed men do not make threats”. Bolsonaro 7 July said 2022 elections could be at risk if Congress does not pass electoral reforms ensuring all ballots are printed, claiming past use of electronic voting system had been marred by fraud; 10 July suggested Luís Roberto Barroso, Supreme Court judge and Supreme Electoral Court president, had personal interest in preventing electoral transparency. Newspaper Estado de São Paulo 22 July alleged Braga Netto had sent message to Arthur Lira, head of lower house of Congress, saying 2022 elections would only be held if electoral reform is approved; Braga Netto denied claim.

President Bukele’s power grab became more evident as newly appointed judicial authorities scaled up prosecution against opposition; independent media also under attack. Attorney General’s Office 2 July raided opposition party ARENA’s headquarters in capital San Salvador and seized party’s assets and funds worth $3.9mn, in alleged attempt to recover funds donated by Taiwan in 2003-2004; 22 July issued arrest warrants against three high-level opposition party Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front officials, including former President Salvador Sánchez Cerén, and detained five former ministers and deputy ministers on embezzlement charges; 25 July extended accusations against another two individuals. Meanwhile, authorities restricted space for independent media. Notably, migration authorities 6 and 9 July reportedly denied work permit to two foreign journalists of online news outlet El Faro; NGO Committee to Protect Journalists 12 July said denial of work permits “sends a clear signal that critical journalism is on shaky ground”. Bukele 19 July said 20,000 more soldiers will be recruited in next five years, doubling size of armed forces, to combat armed gangs. U.S. State Dept 1 July imposed visa restrictions on 14 Salvadoran public figures, including four senior members of current administration and two former ministers under Bukele, over accusations of corruption, obstructing justice, or undermining democracy; Bukele next day denounced move “motivated by political purposes”.

Parliament appointed businessman Najib Mikati as PM-designate after Saad Hariri’s resignation, unrest erupted amid plunging currency value and rising prices, and EU established sanctions framework. Govt formation efforts faced major setback as PM-designate Saad Hariri 14 July visited President Aoun to submit new cabinet line-up, requesting response within 24 hours; Aoun reportedly rejected proposed cabinet despite appeals from French and U.S. ambassadors. Hariri next day relinquished mandate to form new govt that he received in Oct 2020, citing irreconcilable differences with Aoun. Parliament 26 July appointed Tripoli-based businessman Najib Mikati as new PM-designate; while expected to form reform-oriented govt, Mikati thus far lacks support of Christian parties. Mikati 28 July said Aoun had approved most of his nominees for new govt. Economic hardship and insecurity persisted. Following Hariri’s resignation, Lebanese pound 16 July fell to record lows, reaching nearly 24,000 to U.S. dollar before stabilising at 22,000. Ministry of health same day ended subsidies for broad range of medications, leading to fivefold price increase, after delayed subsidy payments already caused medication shortages in pharmacies. Drop in currency value and medicine price hikes 16 July triggered protests in northern city Tripoli, leading to clashes with army that left 30 civilians and ten soldiers injured. Army chief Joseph Aoun next day warned against further deterioration of security and vowed to maintain stability, stating “everybody knows that the army is the last institution that is still effective”. Gas shortages 19 July worsened as consumers sought to stockpile for Eid al-Adha holidays, while electricity provisions reached record low of 2-3 hours daily. Meanwhile, EU 30 July adopted legal framework providing options to sanction persons and entities “responsible for undermining democracy or the rule of law in Lebanon”, urged leadership to “steer the country towards a sustainable recovery”; French MFA same day announced French-hosted international donor conference to aid country on one-year anniversary of Beirut port explosion on 4 August. Two rockets were launched 19 July from Lebanon toward Israel without causing damage; in response, Israel next day shelled launching areas and blamed Palestinian groups for attack.

Deadly violence between regime forces and former rebels escalated in south west; Idlib ceasefire held despite violations, and U.S. troops foiled attack on coalition base in east. In Daraa province in south west, conflict escalated in late July as regime forces 26 July launched artillery strikes and ground offensive on blockaded neighbourhoods, prompting renewed clashes with insurgents across province that 26-31 July reportedly killed at least 32 people, including children. Unidentified gunmen 1-26 July reportedly killed at least 17 civilians and 17 soldiers and former rebels who had enrolled in regime forces or struck reconciliation deals with govt. Regime forces from late June until late July severely restricted movement in and out of neighbourhoods of Daraa city after residents – who had organised campaigns to boycott May presidential elections – refused to relinquish their arms and strike new settlement deal with regime. In Idlib province in north west, March 2020 ceasefire held despite reported clashes, artillery shelling and Russian airstrikes in countryside throughout month that killed at least 35 people; notably, regime artillery shelling reportedly killed at least 24 civilians in Jabal al Zawiya area 3-22 July. Jihadist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ramped up pressure on smaller jihadist entities in Idlib throughout month, issuing ultimatums to Jundallah militants and Chechen group Junud al-Sham to either join its ranks or disband, prompting latter to dissolve. In Deir Ez-Zor province, U.S. and allied Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces 7 July foiled unidentified drone attack on base housing U.S. troops. In central desert, Russia continued airstrikes against suspected Islamic State (ISIS) targets, reportedly killing dozens of militants throughout month; suspected ISIS militants reportedly killed five govt soldiers and allied militia fighters in Raqqa countryside 13 July. Israel reportedly launched airstrikes on Iran-linked targets in al-Safirah area near Aleppo city 19 July, killing five militiamen, and on al-Qusayr area near Homs city 22 July. UN Security Council 9 July unanimously renewed authorisation for cross-border aid operations from Turkey through Bab al-Hawa crossing until 10 Jan 2022. Amid economic strains, govt 11 July announced sharp bread and fuel price hikes.

Tehran announced pause of nuclear talks in Vienna as it continued to expand its nuclear activities, while protests over water access erupted in south west. After sixth round of indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations in Austrian capital Vienna concluded 20 June, reportedly making notable progress, Deputy FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi 17 July said talks must “await our new administration” when President-elect Ebrahim Raisi takes office on 5 August, putting talks on hiatus for at least six weeks. Iran continued its nuclear activities, further straining fraught relations with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and international powers. IAEA 6 July received and conveyed to Board of Governors Iran’s notification of its intent to move ahead with production of uranium metal enriched to 20 per cent, which is banned until 2031 under 2015 nuclear deal; E3 (UK, France and Germany) same day called moved “serious violation of Iran’s commitments” under deal, while U.S. same day described it as “unfortunate step backward”. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Dept 2 July delisted three Iranians allegedly linked with Iran’s missile programme sanctioned in Sept 2020, underscoring that move is unrelated to nuclear talks; Commerce Dept 9 July blacklisted eight entities “for facilitating the export of U.S. items to Iran” in violation of sanctions; federal court 13 July indicted four Iranians on charges of planning kidnapping of U.S. citizen; Tehran next day called allegations “baseless and ridiculous”. Following late June U.S. airstrikes in Syria and Iraq that allegedly targeted Iran-linked militias, Iran’s UN envoy 3 July in letter to UN Security Council president condemned operation “in strongest terms” and denied Iranian involvement in attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq. Armed drone 29 July attacked tanker in Arabian Sea, killing two crew members; Israel, U.S. and UK 1 Aug blamed Iran, which denied responsibility. Protests over access to water 15 July broke out in south-western Khuzestan province; at least three deaths reported and UN human rights chief 23 July described situation as “catastrophic”.

Amid ongoing rocket attacks, PM Kadhimi and U.S. President Biden set timeline of U.S. combat troop withdrawal; Islamic State (ISIS) militants killed dozens of civilians across country. Rockets 5, 7 July hit Ain al-Assad airbase in Anbar province (west) hosting coalition troops, injuring two; Shiite armed group Revenge of al-Muhandis Brigade same day claimed responsibility. Rockets next day targeted U.S. embassy in capital Baghdad, landing in Green Zone; Iran-backed militias denied involvement. Following talks with PM Kadhimi, U.S. President Biden 26 July announced 2,500 U.S. troops in country would end combat mission by end of year but would continue training and advisory roles. Meanwhile, ISIS militants 3 July killed four fishermen at Haditha Dam, Anbar province. Militants 4 July clashed with villagers in Diyala province (east), killing five. ISIS-linked suicide bomber same day killed at least 35 and wounded over 60 in Sadr City market, Baghdad, on eve of Eid al-Adha, marking third market bombing in neighbourhood in 2021. Security forces 19 July announced arrest of prominent ISIS leader “Emir of Baghdad”. Power line failure 2 July caused widespread blackout in Baghdad and southern provinces amid extreme summer heat, triggering protests in southern city Basra. Joint Operation Command 4 July confirmed ISIS attacked dozens of electricity pylons early month. Supreme Judicial Council 8 July issued arrest warrants for suspects in 2020 killing of security specialist and govt adviser Husham al-Hashimi; Kadhimi 16 July announced arrest of suspects; protesters 18 July demonstrated in Baghdad demanding govt to ensure adviser’s killers are held accountable. Ahead of Oct parliamentary elections, Shiite cleric and leader of largest parliamentary bloc Muqtada al-Sadr 15 July announced withdrawal from polls; Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako, head of Chaldean Church, next day said Christians would not vote over concerns of militias and risk of fraud. Peshmerga and Kurdistan Workers’ Party 24 July traded accusations of opening fire on each other’s positions in Duhok province. In Nasiriyah, deadly fire caused by oxygen containers 12 July killed at least 92 in COVID-19 ward at al-Hussein Teaching Hospital. Kirkuk health director 22 July warned of health sector collapse amid record highs of COVID-19 cases.

Huthis continued cross-border attacks and tensions surfaced between Riyadh and United Arab Emirates (UAE) over oil production dispute. On southern border, Saudi-led coalition announced interceptions of Huthi drones and missiles on 2, 3, 24, 25, 27, 28, 30 and 31 July (see Yemen). Saudi Arabia and UAE clashed in public spat over OPEC+ agreement to cut oil production beyond April 2022, with UAE pushing for higher baseline production level; sides 18 July reached compromise and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed next day visited Saudi counterpart Mohammed bin Salman, ending standoff and cooling tensions. Earlier in month, Riyadh 2 July imposed 3%-15% tax on products produced by Gulf Cooperation Council-based companies whose workforce does not include 10%-25% of nationals from country in which companies are based, in move seen as challenge to UAE’s free trade zones. Riyadh 3 July shuttered flights to and from UAE, citing COVID-19 concerns. Meanwhile, Saudi Deputy Defence Minister Khaled bin Salman 6-7 July visited U.S. capital Washington to meet U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and U.S. Sec State Anthony Blinken; topics reportedly included U.S.-Saudi partnership, Yemen and Iran.

While violence eased in Marib, heavy clashes between tribal forces and Huthis erupted in southern al-Bayda governorate; tensions heightened between Southern Transition Council and govt. Following last month’s heavy clashes, fighting eased in Marib governorate as Huthis redirected their forces from northern front lines to southern al-Bayda governorate; local forces from al-Humaiqan tribe – supported by southern separatists and Salafist fighters, many from Yafa tribe – 2-4 July made territorial gains, reportedly including in az-Zahir and as-Sawmah districts, in most intense fighting in area in 18 months. By 11 July, Huthis had largely regained territories and began to push into al-Humaiqan tribal territory. Elsewhere, Huthis 4 July reportedly carried out attack on military base in Abyan in rare missile strike on southern region, while cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia continued (see Saudi Arabia). Meanwhile, on diplomatic front, UN efforts at kickstarting ceasefire negotiations effectively halted as approval by UN Security Council’s permanent members of leading candidate Hans Grundberg for new UN special envoy position stalled; outgoing envoy Martin Griffiths 19 July took up new position as UN’s humanitarian chief, leaving Yemen position vacant. Omani officials reportedly continued pushing for ceasefire between Riyadh and Huthis without any progress. In south, tensions rose between the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and internationally-recognised govt. Talks in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh between two sides to discuss implementation of Nov 2019 Riyadh Agreement 1 July ended inconclusively; STC accused govt of arresting and attacking its supporters in Shebwa governorate, while govt alleged STC was fostering violent protests and unrest in Shebwa; both accused other of building up forces in Abyan governorate. Tensions stemming from STC President Aydrous al-Zubaidi’s late June reshuffle of STC-aligned security forces continued; move seen as attempt to consolidate control in southern Aden city’s state and parallel institutions. STC leader and Aden Governor Ahmed al-Lamlas 14 July announced formation of “popular security committees”, which govt viewed as attempt to reinforce STC’s position in city. Yemeni Riyal hit historic low, plunging to YR1,000 to U.S. dollar on 12 July, marking 72% depreciation of pre-war value.

Israeli forces fired live ammunition at Palestinians in West Bank, while Israeli police stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque compound as PM Bennett challenged status quo at site. Following Palestinian protests in recent weeks at Evyatar settlement in Beita town near Nablus city, Israeli settlers 2 July vacated settlement while govt kept structures intact and maintained military presence until land status is determined. Israeli forces 9 July fired on hundreds of Palestinian demonstrators in Beita, wounding over 370, including 31 with live ammunition; during protests, soldiers 23 July shot Palestinian teenager who died next day. Israeli settlers buttressed by Israeli soldiers 3 July entered Qusra village, Nablus, and attacked local residents; Israeli soldiers fired live ammunition, killing one Palestinian and injuring 24 others. Israeli NGO Breaking the Silence 23 July claimed military are complicit in “drastic surge” in settler violence this year. Elsewhere in West Bank, Israel 7 July demolished Humsa village in Jordan valley for seventh time in less than one year, displacing 65 Palestinians, including 35 children. In Beit Ummar town, soldier 29 July shot and killed Palestinian man attending funeral of 12-year-old boy killed by Israeli forces previous day. In Jerusalem, Israeli police 18 July stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, firing tear gas and sponge-coated steel bullets to disperse Muslim worshippers to allow over 1,000 Israelis to visit compound. PM Bennett same day said Jews must have “freedom of worship” at site, suggesting dramatic revision of status quo, but next day backpedalled, stating Jews must have right “to visit”. Hamas same day warned of escalation. Palestinian Authority (PA) Head of General Authority of Civil Affairs Hussein al Sheikh 25 July apologised for death of Nizar Banat, who was killed by PA security forces during late June protests, called it “unfortunate accident”. In Gaza, Israeli military 3 July launched air raids on alleged “weapons manufacturing site”, fourth raid in Gaza since May ceasefire. Meanwhile, Israel’s governing coalition 6 July failed to renew “family reunification” law for first time since 2003; law bars Palestinians who marry Israeli citizens from attaining residency and citizenship in Israel.

President Tebboune formed new govt, space for civil society activism continued to be restricted, and tensions ran high with Morocco. Following legislative elections and appointment of new PM in June, Tebboune 7 July unveiled new govt, renewing half of outgoing ministers; return of Ramtane Lamamra, top diplomat under former President Bouteflika in 2013-2017, as FM could presage Algeria’s international re-engagement. Independent MP Brahim Boughali elected parliament’s new speaker 8 July. Security forces throughout month prevented most bi-weekly marches of Hirak protest movement in capital Algiers; marches however took place in Bejaia and Tizi-Ouzou cities, both Kabylia province. As part of traditional appeasement gestures around Independence Day and Islamic festival of Eid al-Adha, Tebboune 4 July pardoned 18 incarcerated Hirak activists and 14 July granted amnesty to another 101. NGO National Committee for the Liberation of Detainees 19 July still recorded 197 “prisoners of conscience” across country. Meanwhile, harassment of civil society continued; police 15 July briefly arrested journalist Zoheïr Aberkane as he was documenting release of pardoned activists in front of El Harrach prison (Algiers); next day detained Hirak activists Guettache Aness Elwoudjoud and Saïd Niya during unauthorised Hirak protest in Algiers, before releasing them 19 July. Tensions ran high between Algeria and Morocco over Western Sahara. In virtual Non-Aligned Movement meeting, FM Lamamra 14 July called on UN to accelerate appointment of UN envoy for Western Sahara; in response, Morocco’s Permanent Representative to UN Omar Hilale same day called for Algeria’s Amazigh-speaking Kabylia region “to fully enjoy their right to self-determination”, prompting Algiers 18 July to recall its ambassador to Morocco.

Authorities continued clampdown on outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist violence persisted in Sinai Peninsula. Court of Cassation 11 July upheld life sentences of ten Muslim Brotherhood (MB) top officials, including former leader Mohamed Badie, on accusations of killing policemen and organising mass jailbreaks during 2011 uprising. Parliament’s lower house next day approved legal amendment that enables govt to dismiss public sector employees suspected of being affiliated with MB. Court of Cassation 14 July rejected appeal by group of 13 people, including two prominent civil society activists, against their placement on Egypt’s terrorism list in April 2020; all 13 have been detained since 2019 on accusations of having received funds from MB to incite revolution and commit violence. Jihadist attacks persisted in Sinai Peninsula. Notably, Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) militants’ gunfire 2 July wounded soldier south of Rafah town and 12 July targeted pro-govt militia south of Sheikh Zuweid town. IEDs likely planted by SP militants 11, 13 and 17 July blew up army tanks south of Sheikh Zuweid, killing or wounding soldiers on board. Suspected SP militants 31 July killed at least five troops in attack on checkpoint in Sheikh Zuweid town: three militants also killed in exchange of fire. NGO Human Rights First 15 July said ISIS recruitment was ongoing in Egyptian prisons and fuelled in large part by torture and other abuse of inmates. Meanwhile, Qatar 29 July named ambassador to Egypt after Cairo and Doha signed reconciliation agreement in Jan; Egypt had appointed ambassador to Doha in late June. Tensions with Ethiopia ran high as Addis Ababa completed second filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (see Nile Waters).

Transition remained at standstill with all political and economic tracks of peace process deadlocked; authorities reopened strategic road linking west and east. In Geneva city (Switzerland), delegates of UN-backed Libyan Political Dialogue Forum 28 June-2 July failed to forge agreement on legal framework to hold presidential and parliamentary elections in Dec; political factions remained at loggerheads over electoral roadmap and which type of ballot to hold. Renewed attempts by House of Representatives (HoR) to approve 2021 state budget proposed by govt of national unity 6 and 13 July failed; main stumbling block related to funding for Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar-aligned forces; Economic Working Group comprising UN, U.S., EU and Egyptian representatives 26 July urged Libyan govt and parliament to “find realistic compromise solutions” on budget. Appointment of new Central Bank governor remained in stalemate, with HoR and rival Tripoli-based High Council of State disagreeing on appointment process. UN Special Envoy for Libya Ján Kubiš 8 July submitted final report of international audit of Central Bank’s rival branches, launched in 2018, to Presidency Council and heads of Central Bank’s branches; auditors reportedly said Central Bank’s division complicates access to foreign exchange, impedes monetary reform, and undermines integrity and oversight of commercial banks, and recommended steps toward its reunification. Kubiš 15 July told UN Security Council Libya’s banking system “will likely collapse” if country’s two central bank branches do not unify, also said stalled political talks could unravel Oct 2020 ceasefire agreement. HoR Speaker Aghela Saleh 27 July warned Libya would return to “square one” and new rival govt could emerge in east if polls were delayed. PM Dabaiba 30 July said strategic Misrata-Sirte road linking west and east had reopened in line with Oct 2020 ceasefire provisions. Rival militias 22-23 July reportedly clashed in capital Tripoli, leaving seven dead including three civilians; Mohamed Kani, leader of Haftar-aligned al-Kani militia accused of having killed over 100 people in and around Tarhuna city in 2020, killed 27 July in Benghazi city reportedly while resisting arrest by another Haftar-aligned unit.

President Saïed invoked constitution to dismiss PM and suspend parliament, escalating months-long political crisis. Saïed 25 July used Article 80 of country’s constitution, which grants president greater powers in emergency situations, to dismiss PM Hichem Mechichi and freeze parliament for 30 days, also said he would assume executive authority and public prosecutor’s powers, and strip lawmakers of their immunity. Tens of thousands immediately gathered in capital Tunis to applaud move. Earlier same day, thousands had protested across country against govt’s handling of health and economic crises and biggest party in parliament, Islamist-inspired An-Nahda, on occasion of Republic Day – which marks abolition of monarchy in 1957 –, leading to scuffles with police. Saïed 26 July sacked defence minister and acting justice minister, next day ordered dismissal of over 20 senior govt officials including military Attorney General Taoufik Ayouni. Parliament Speaker and An-Nahda leader Rached Ghannouchi 26 July decried Saïed’s move as “coup”, said parliament should be in session, and called on Tunisians to “defend the revolution”; clashes same day erupted between Saïed and An-Nahda supporters in front of army-barricaded parliament building. Mechichi 26 July said he would hand over power to individual chosen by Saïed. Saïed 30 July vowed he would “not turn into a dictator”. Authorities 30-31 July detained MPs Yassine Ayari, Maher Zid and Mohamed Affes; all three had accused Saïed of “coup”. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell 27 July urged resumption of parliament; U.S. 30 July called on Saïed to “quickly lift emergency measures and unfreeze parliament”, next day urged him to outline swift return to “democratic path”. Earlier in month, health ministry 9 July said health system had “collapsed” amid spiralling COVID-19 cases and deaths, and Mechichi 20 July sacked Health Minister Faouzi Mehdi. Parliament 12 July approved economic recovery law which promotes integration of informal sector into formal economy and allows Tunisians to open foreign currency bank account under certain conditions.

Diplomatic row between Morocco and Algeria over Western Sahara took another turn, and pressure rose on Morocco to stop crackdown on Sahrawi activists. In virtual Non-Aligned Movement meeting, Algerian FM Ramtane Lamamra 14 July called on UN to accelerate appointment of UN envoy for Western Sahara; in response, Morocco’s Permanent Representative to UN Omar Hilale same day called for Algeria’s Amazigh-speaking Kabylia region “to fully enjoy their right to self-determination”, prompting Algiers 18 July to recall its ambassador to Morocco (see Algeria, Morocco). UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders Mary Lawlor 1 July urged Morocco to stop criminalising human rights activists, notably those working on issues related to Western Sahara, denounced “cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment and torture” of imprisoned activists; Lawlor expressed particular concern over cases of Sahrawi activists Naama Asfari and Khatri Dadda, who have been detained since 2010 and 2019, respectively, and Sultana Khaya, who has been under house arrest since Nov 2020. NGO Amnesty International 19 July said Morocco had intensified repression against pro-independence Sahrawi activists through “ill-treatment, arrests, detentions and harassment” since Nov 2020, reporting 22 cases of human rights violations by Moroccan security forces against Sahrawi activists and human rights defenders.

Tensions ran high with Algeria over Western Sahara. In virtual Non-Aligned Movement meeting, Algerian FM Ramtane Lamamra 14 July called on UN to accelerate appointment of UN envoy for Western Sahara; in response, Morocco’s Permanent Representative to UN Omar Hilale same day called for Algeria’s Amazigh-speaking Kabylia region “to fully enjoy their right to self-determination”, prompting Algiers 18 July to recall its ambassador to Morocco. Meanwhile, Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez 10 July sacked FM Arancha Gonzalez Laya in apparent good-will gesture toward Morocco following sharp deterioration of bilateral relations since April hospitalisation in Spain of Western Sahara independence movement leader Brahim Ghali. UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders Mary Lawlor 1 July urged Morocco to stop criminalising human rights activists, notably those working on issues related to Western Sahara, denounced “cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment and torture” of imprisoned activists (see Western Sahara).

Washington and Moscow voiced concerns about hypersonic missiles; senior officials held first strategic stability dialogue meeting. Russian defence ministry 19 July reported successful launch of Zirkon hypersonic missile; U.S. Department of Defence same day called weapon “potentially destabilising” and warned that it is “compatible with nuclear weapons”. Russian embassy in Washington D.C. next day warned U.S. against deploying the as yet non-existent American hypersonic missiles in Europe, which it said would be “extremely destabilising”. U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman and Russian deputy defence minister 28 July met in Geneva, Switzerland, for start of U.S.-Russia bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue, established following June summit between Presidents Biden and Putin; Putin’s spokesman same day said it was “very positive sign” that talks were taking place.

Moscow and Washington voiced concerns about hypersonic missiles; senior officials held first strategic stability dialogue meeting. Russian defence ministry 19 July reported successful launch of Zirkon hypersonic missile; U.S. Department of Defence same day called weapon “potentially destabilising” and warned that it is “compatible with nuclear weapons”. Russian embassy in Washington D.C. next day warned U.S. against deploying the as yet non-existent American hypersonic missiles in Europe, which it said would be “extremely destabilising”. U.S. Deputy Sec of State Wendy Sherman and Russian deputy defence minister 28 July met in Geneva, Switzerland, for start of U.S.-Russia bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue, established following June summit between Presidents Biden and Putin; Putin’s spokesman same day said it was “very positive sign” that talks were taking place.