Iran held presidential election amid record low turnout; govt responded to censure resolution at UN nuclear agency with plans to expand uranium enrichment capacity as Western sanctions increased. 

Country held presidential election to replace deceased President Raisi. Unelected oversight body, Guardian Council, 9 June approved six candidates for 28 June presidential election triggered by 19 May death of President Raisi; all but one came from conservative end of political spectrum. Voter turnout 28 June hit new historic low of 40 per cent with no candidate securing absolute majority. Runoff between centre-left Masoud Pezeshkian, backed by reformists and moderates, and far-right Saeed Jalili scheduled for 5 July.

Nuclear watchdog censured Iran for failing to cooperate, prompting Tehran’s ire. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi 3 June opened Board of Governors meeting by noting ongoing expansion of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, continued limits to IAEA’s access to Iranian facilities and lack of progress in resolving safeguards concerns. Board 5 June voted 20 to two in favour of censure resolution – the first since Nov 2022 – reiterating calls for Iranian cooperation on IAEA access and safeguards concerns, and stressing potential need for comprehensive and updated assessment by IAEA if such cooperation is not forthcoming. Iran’s foreign ministry next day denounced resolution and around 9-10 June informed IAEA of ongoing expansion of uranium enrichment capacity at Natanz and Fordow sites. U.S. 13 June warned it would “respond accordingly” if expansion was implemented and joined IAEA in calling on Tehran to cooperate with agency on safeguards.

U.S. and Canada further sanctioned Iranian individuals and entities. U.S. 10 June blacklisted ten people, entities and ships for financing Houthis; 17 June unveiled another nine Houthi-related designations and designated Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq member Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya as terrorist organisation; 25 June sanctioned nearly 50 entities and individuals described as Iranian govt’s “shadow banking” network; and 27 June blacklisted three entities and 11 associate vessels for transporting Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals, in response to Iran’s nuclear advancements. Canada 19 June designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorist group.

President Raisi and FM Amir-Abdollahian were killed in helicopter crash, nuclear watchdog’s chief visited Tehran amid transparency concerns, and deterrence with Israel held after April escalation.

Helicopter crash killed President Raisi and FM Amir-Abdollahian. Govt 20 May confirmed helicopter crash in north-western Iran previous day killed President Raisi and FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, as well as six others. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei approved VP Mohammad Mokhber in executive branch caretaker capacity while preparations get underway for presidential elections set for 28 June; Amir-Abdollahian’s deputy Ali Bagheri-Khan, lead interlocutor on nuclear negotiations, took over as acting FM. Following 1 March elections and 10 May run-off votes, which saw hardline victory and record low turnout, new parliamentarians 27 May took seats; Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was re-elected as speaker.

Amid transparency concerns, nuclear watchdog’s chief visited Iran. Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi 6-7 May travelled to Iran, met with senior officials and “proposed set of concrete practical measures for revitalisation of 4 March 2023 Joint Statement” aiming to restore confidence and increase transparency in Iran’s nuclear program, which continues to advance; Grossi also noted Iran’s willingness to cooperate rather than continue divergent course risking “more escalation […] including war”, but noted “huge question mark about what they are doing and why they are doing it” and criticised “loose talk about nuclear weapons” among senior officials. It remained unclear how much progress was made ahead of next IAEA Board of Governors meeting 3-7 June.

Regional tensions simmered; West imposed more sanctions. After April’s unprecedented escalation between Iran and Israel, pair refrained from further direct hostilities; however, Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups claimed over two dozen missile and drone attacks against Israel during May, while Israeli strikes in Syria persisted and exchanges between Houthis and U.S.-led forces in and around Yemen continued apace (see Iraq, Syria and Yemen). Meanwhile, Australia 14 May sanctioned total of eight persons and entities, including Iran’s defence minister and commander of Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force. Council of EU next day announced expansion of sanctions on Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) activity to include “persons and entities supplying, selling or otherwise being involved in transferring Iran’s missiles”.

Years-long shadow war between Iran and Israel escalated into overt and direct hostilities, with Tehran launching unprecedented retaliatory attack on Israeli territory with massive barrage of drones and missiles. 

Israeli strike on Iran’s Syrian consulate triggered unprecedented confrontation. Airstrike on Iranian consular facility in Syrian capital Damascus, widely attributed to Israel, 1 April killed two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and five officers, marking most significant in string of Israeli operations against Iranian military personnel since late 2023. After Iran’s leadership loudly vowed revenge, IRGC 13 April seized MSC Aries, container ship linked to Israeli ownership, in Gulf of Oman. In first ever direct attack, Iran later same day unleased massive barrage of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel, which according to Israeli and U.S. officials were intercepted with near-total success with exception of minor damage at Israeli airbase and reported wounded civilian. Tehran signalled action was limited and concluded, warning any Israeli response would be met by more substantial counter-response; hinting of weaponising nuclear program, senior IRGC official 18 April warned that “reconsidering nuclear doctrine and policies of [Iran] is probable and imaginable” were Israel to target nuclear facilities. Israel 18-19 April conducted drone/missile attack in Isfahan city, impact of which Tehran largely dismissed. Both sides late April refrained from further hostilities, but risk of direct confrontation remains as pair seek to establish new red lines (see Conflict in Focus). Meanwhile, U.S. 25 April sanctioned more than two dozen additional persons and entities linked to development or transfer of Iranian UAVs.

Separatist militants in south east launched deadly attacks. In Sistan and Baluchestan province (south east), separatist Baluch militant group Jaish al-Adl 3 April launched coordinated assault on military and police targets in Rask and Chabahar cities, which IRGC next day said killed ten security forces personnel and eighteen militants. Jaish al-Adl ambush 9 April reportedly killed six policemen. 

Authorities renewed imposition of cultural conservative mandates. Govt 13 April launched renewed campaign to enforce mandatory hijab wearing on women, which could reignite social and political discontent that led to widespread anti-regime protests following death of Mahsa Amini in 2022.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed concern over growth and opacity of Iran’s nuclear activity, as regional tensions between Iran-backed groups and U.S. ebbed in Iraq and Syria but remained in Red Sea.

Nuclear watchdog, U.S. and European states spotlighted Iran’s nuclear program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi 4 March told first Board of Governors meeting of 2024 “Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium continues to increase, even though level of uranium enriched to 60% has fallen slightly”, further noting that IAEA had “lost continuity of knowledge” on key components in nuclear infrastructure, and expressed frustration at lack of “progress in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues”. U.S. and E3 (UK, France and Germany) 6-7 March raised series of related concerns. U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment 11 March asserted “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device”.

Anti-U.S. attacks largely halted in Iraq and Syria, Houthis continued strikes on shipping. Lull in attacks on U.S. forces by Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria since early Feb appeared to largely hold in March, with exception of drone late March targeting U.S. forces in Syria, while Houthis in Yemen continued attacks in Red Sea/Gulf of Aden (see Iraq, Syria and Yemen). Amid tit-for-tat attacks between Iran-backed groups and Israel in Syria, Iran 26 March confirmed death of IRGC “military advisor” in Syria during alleged Israeli strikes. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctioned numerous Iranian/Iran-linked entities. Notably, U.S. 6 March designated four entities and vessels for their role in Qods Force-linked network supporting Houthis. U.S. 26 March sanctioned nine entities, individual and tankers for “facilitating commodity shipments and financial transactions for the IRGC-Qods Force, the Houthis and Hizbollah”. G7 statement 15 March warned “we are prepared to respond swiftly” were Iran to provide ballistic missiles to Russia, including “with new and significant measures”.

Elections saw record low turnout. Iran 1 March held elections for parliament and Assembly of Experts with 41% turnout, a record low for legislative races since 1979. Substantial vetting of candidates meant outcome was dominated by conservatives, who have tightened their grip over parliament and body to select Supreme Leader.

Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” groups and U.S./Israel continued confrontations across region, while UN’s nuclear watchdog expressed concern over govt’s nuclear advancement.

U.S. launched retaliatory strikes on Iran-linked groups. In response to 28 Jan drone attack killing three U.S. soldiers in Jordan, attributed to Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, U.S. 2 Feb launched most substantial retaliatory operation in Iraq and Syria since escalatory cycle began in Oct with strikes on more than 85 military targets, killing estimated 40 (see Iraq and Syria); Tehran labelled strikes “strategic mistake”. U.S. 7 Feb killed Kata’ib Hizbollah commander known as Abu Baqr al-Saeedi in Iraq, allegedly “responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on U.S. forces”. Following strikes, frequency of attacks against U.S. forces particularly in Iraq appeared to decline, reportedly with Iran’s encouragement, but it remains to be seen if relative lull will be sustained. Elsewhere, U.S. and UK continued strikes against Houthis (see Yemen); media reports 15 Feb indicated U.S. had carried out cyberattack against Iranian vessel suspected of intelligence gathering in Red Sea. Iranian media 2 Feb confirmed death of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) member in Syrian capital Damascus, marking another fatality in series of recent unconfirmed Israeli strikes (see Syria). In attack potentially portending greater Israeli covert operations on Iranian soil, reports attributed 14 Feb blasts damaging gas pipelines to Israel.

Concerns persisted over Iran’s nuclear program. International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Director General, Rafael Grossi, 1 Feb noted “a bit of slowing down” of growing stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%. Grossi 13 Feb reiterated concerns over Iran’s lack of transparency, given curtailed IAEA monitoring, and noted “loose talk” among Iranian officials on nuclear weapons capability. Serious diplomatic engagement between Tehran and Western powers remained absent ahead of IAEA Board of Governors meeting in March.

Washington’s sanctions continued to mount. Notably, U.S. 2 Feb blacklisted “network of prolific suppliers of materials and sensitive technology for Iran’s ballistic missile and [drone] programs”, as well as half dozen IRGC officials engaged in “malicious cyber activities”. U.S. 14 Feb sanctioned seven persons and entities, including Central Bank of Iran subsidiary.

Islamic State (ISIS) killed 80 in deadliest bombing in decades, while Iran struck Syria, Iraq and Pakistan in sign of increasingly assertive regional posture amid escalation on multiple fronts fuelled by Gaza war.

ISIS killed scores at ceremony for slain commander. ISIS 3 Jan conducted dual bombings at commemoration ceremony for Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Kerman city (south east), which killed over 80 and injured more than 200, marking deadliest terrorist attack in Iran since 1979 revolution. 

Tehran struck out at foes both east and west. IRGC 15 Jan announced it had launched ballistic missiles into Syria’s Idlib purportedly aimed at ISIS, and northern Iraq at sites it claimed were linked to Israeli intelligence. Iranian forces next day launched strikes on village in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, claiming to target “strongholds” of Jaish al-Adl – anti-Iranian Baloch militant group that 15 Dec conducted deadly attack in Iran’s Balochistan province; Pakistan condemned strike and claimed it killed two children. Pakistan 18 Jan launched strikes on village near Iranian border city of Saravan (south east), claiming to target Pakistani Baloch militants; pair took steps to de-escalate late Jan (see Pakistan). Unidentified gunmen 27 Jan killed nine Pakistani workers in Saravan.

Iran-aligned groups continued attacks across region amid Gaza war. Amid Houthi attacks in Red Sea and U.S.-UK retaliatory airstrikes (see Yemen), Iran 15 Jan disavowed involvement. Iran 21 Jan confirmed deaths of five IRGC members in alleged Israeli strikes in Syrian capital Damascus, as President Raisi pledged revenge. Attacks against U.S. and allied forces in Iraq and Syria by Iran-aligned groups continued, exceeding 160 incidents from mid Oct to late Jan (see Iraq and Syria). In significant escalation, drone strike 28 Jan, attributed by U.S. to Iran-backed militants, killed three U.S. service members in Jordan; U.S. pledged retaliation (see Jordan).

Iran expanded nuclear activities. After International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) late Dec announced Iran increased three-fold its production of uranium enriched up to 60%, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi 18 Jan stressed need for urgent diplomacy; nuclear expansion, hampered cooperation with IAEA and limited diplomacy with West bode ill for swift resolution of simmering nuclear crisis. 

War in Gaza reverberated across region as Iran-backed groups engaged in hostilities with U.S. forces and Israel, spotlighting risks of escalation; West imposed series of sanctions against Iran.

Iran-backed groups maintained regional pressure amid ongoing Gaza onslaught. Iran-backed groups continued engagement in hostilities with Israel and/or U.S. throughout Dec as Israel continued war in Gaza (see Israel-Palestine): hostilities between Hizbollah and Israel continued to expand in frequency and intensity, “Axis of Resistance” attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq reached 113 as of 31 Dec as Iran 25 Dec vowed retaliation for killing of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps official by alleged Israeli strike in Syria, and U.S. Navy killed Houthi militants in Red Sea amid threats against commercial vessels (see Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen). Iran disavowed direct engagement, but White House official 22 Dec accused Tehran of being “deeply involved in planning” Houthi attacks in Red Sea, and Israeli PM Netanyahu 30 Dec contended Iran was leading “aggression against us on various fronts”.

Western sanctions continued to mount on Iran-linked entities. U.S. Commerce Department 5 Dec added eleven companies linked with “Iranian-Russian efforts to develop unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) facility” to its Entity list. U.S. 7 Dec sanctioned another thirteen persons and companies said to be financing Houthis. U.S. 8 Dec blacklisted two Iranians for various operations, notably plots against U.S. officials. UK same day sanctioned five Iranian officials over human rights concerns. EU 11 Dec announced sanctions against eleven persons and entities involved in development of UAVs used in Russia-Ukraine war. U.S., UK 14 Dec designated several Iranian officials and Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad representatives to Iran.

In other important developments. Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for 15 Dec attack against police station in Balochestan (south east), which killed eleven. International Atomic Energy Agency 26 Dec informed member states that Iran increased production rate of 60% enriched uranium since Nov; U.S., UK, France and Germany 28 Dec jointly condemned Iran’s action.

Hostilities between Iran-backed groups and U.S. forces across region underscored risk of escalation amid Israel’s onslaught in Gaza, while UN’s nuclear watchdog voiced concern over Tehran’s nuclear activities.

Tit-for-tat attacks between Iran-backed groups and U.S. continued across region. String of attacks since mid-Oct attributed to Iran-linked factions against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria continued during Nov amid Israel’s onslaught in Gaza (see Israel-Palestine), further eroding relative quiet stemming from informal diplomatic understandings between Tehran and Washington; as of 29 Nov, U.S. tallied approximately 74 incidents and around five dozen casualties, though pace of attacks fell as Gaza truce took effect late Nov. Notably, U.S. 8 and 12 Nov launched retaliatory airstrikes in eastern Syria against facilities allegedly linked to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) (see Syria), and 20-21 Nov launched first deadly retaliatory strikes on Iran-backed targets in Iraq (see Iraq). FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian 15 Nov maintained perpetrators were making “own decisions”; attacks seem intended to dissuade Israel from deepening campaign in Gaza and to signal to Washington risks of association with Israel but any attack claiming significant casualties could trigger escalatory spiral. Meanwhile, Iranian officials sought to push for Israel’s diplomatic isolation, including during President Raisi’s attendance at summits 11 Nov (see Saudi Arabia).

Concerns over Iran’s uranium enrichment resurged. International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) quarterly report 15 Nov showed further growth of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles and continued impasse over safeguards concerns and transparency; Iran has amassed total enriched uranium stockpile of almost 4.5 tonnes, including 6.7kg enriched to 60%, closest to weapons grade. IAEA at 22 Nov board meeting reiterated criticism of Iran’s 16 Sept decision to bar top inspectors and reported no progress in investigations into past activities at undeclared sites.

U.S. sanctioned Iran-affiliated militias and military financial networks. Washington and UK 14 Nov blacklisted Gaza- and Lebanon-based entities linked to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas. U.S. 17 Nov sanctioned six individuals linked to Kata’ib Hizbollah militia in Iraq and another group linked to IRGC. U.S. 29 Nov designated more than twenty persons/entities part of “financial facilitation networks” benefitting Iranian military.

Tehran warned of regional conflagration if Israel expands its military campaign in Gaza, while EU and UK maintained sanctions due to be lifted under 2015 deal, triggering Iran’s ire.

Hamas-Israel war placed spotlight on Iran’s role and future intentions. Following outbreak of war between Hamas and Israel on 7 Oct (see Israel-Palestine), Tehran endorsed Hamas’s actions and warned of regional conflict should situation in Israel-Palestine escalate, while accusing U.S. of “managing” Israel’s assault against Gaza. U.S. and Israeli officials during Oct noted extensive support Iran has provided Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad over years, although U.S. President Biden 12 Oct asserted “no evidence” so far that Tehran had foreknowledge of attack. U.S. 18 and 27 Oct imposed two sets of Hamas-related sanctions; latter included Tehran-based “liaison between Hamas and the Iranian govt” and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials said to help train Hamas and other groups. Against backdrop of looming Israeli ground offensive into Gaza, frequent deadly exchanges occurred along Israel-Lebanon border (see Lebanon), in addition to more than 25 drone and rocket attacks by Iran-backed proxies against U.S. forces in region (see Iraq and Syria); in retaliation, U.S. 26 Oct struck Syrian sites used by “IRGC and affiliated group”. U.S. and allies warned Iran of dangers of regional escalation publicly, privately and by significant U.S. military deployments to region. In case of expanded Israeli ground incursion into Gaza, Iran could support or prod its proxies to escalate attacks against Israel and U.S. in calibrated manner, raising risks of miscalculation and tensions spinning out of control.

EU and UK retained sanctions set to be lifted under 2015 deal. EU and UK 17-18 Oct confirmed they would keep in place non-proliferation sanctions due to expire as part of 2015 nuclear deal’s “Transition Day”, citing Iran’s non-compliance with agreement. Iran 18 Oct labelled decision “unilateral, illegal and politically unjustifiable”. U.S., EU, UK alongside dozens of other states 18 Oct asserted “it is imperative that all States continue to take steps to counter Iran’s destabilising ballistic missile-related activities”. In parallel, U.S. unveiled sanctions against 26 persons, entities and vessel linked to ballistic missile and UAV programs.

Ties soured between Iran and nuclear watchdog amid safeguards concerns; govt implemented humanitarian deal with U.S., potentially clearing atmosphere for engagement on regional and nuclear files.

In “unprecedented” move, govt scaled back cooperation with nuclear inspectors. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi 11 Sept opened Board of Governors meeting by noting “no further progress” in resolving outstanding safeguards concerns and voiced worry over “decrease in interest” among IAEA members; while confirmed decrease in Iran’s rate of stockpiling uranium at highest end of enrichment likely forestalled formal censure resolution, 63 countries – including U.S. and E3 (France, Germany and UK) – urged Iran to “immediately” resolve safeguards concerns. U.S. and E3 13 Sept warned of possible censure resolution without Iran’s “urgent actions”. In move he described as “disproportionate and unprecedented”, Grossi 16 Sept announced Iran had “effectively removed about one third of the core group of the Agency's most experienced inspectors”; U.S. and E3 18 Sept demanded Tehran “immediately reverse” decision.

In positive step toward de-escalation, U.S. and Iran concluded humanitarian deal. Five U.S. nationals detained in Iran, along with two family members, 18 Sept departed for Qatar en route to U.S.; Washington in turn released five imprisoned Iranian nationals and, in parallel, approximately $6bn in Iranian assets held in South Korea were transferred to Qatari banks to be accessible for humanitarian purposes. Deal could serve as platform for more concerted diplomatic efforts to contain nuclear concerns and maintain momentum on regional engagement.

West continued sanctions. Citing Iran’s non-compliance with 2015 nuclear deal, E3 14 Sept announced intent “to maintain nuclear proliferation-related measures and arms and missile embargoes” due to expire in Oct; Iran pledged to respond. To mark anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death on 15 Sept, U.S. blacklisted 29 Iranian persons and entities and imposed visa restrictions on thirteen individuals, while UK, Canada and EU issued designations. U.S. 18 Sept sanctioned Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security as well as former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, citing their role in hostage-taking and human rights violations. U.S. 19 and 27 Sep sanctioned total of eighteen entities and individuals linked to Iran’s Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) program.