UN personal envoy continued efforts to resume talks between parties ahead of mandate expiry and Hizbollah threatened to strike Cyprus should it support Israel’s war in Gaza.

Efforts to relaunch formal talks remained stalled. UN Sec Gen’s Personal Envoy Maria Holguin’s efforts to find common ground between Republic of Cyprus and Turkish Cypriot leadership for return to formal talks remained fruitless; during month, Türkiye and Turkish Cypriots appeared opposed to extension of Holguin’s mandate beyond 5 July, while Greece and Greek Cypriots appeared open to idea. Speaking at event marking 50th anniversary of Turkish invasion of Cyprus, Turkish Defence Minister Yaşar Güler 5 June called for two-state solution in Cyprus. Holguin 21 June said “no visit” to Cyprus was planned but that she would meet Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders separately outside Cyprus in coming weeks. Council of Europe’s parliamentary assembly 27 June adopted resolution denouncing Türkiye and Turkish Cypriot leadership’s unilateral reopening of fenced-off area of Varosha city since Oct 2020 and calling for Varosha’s immediate return “to its lawful inhabitants”; Republic of Cyprus next day welcomed resolution.

Hizbollah threatened to strike Cyprus. Hizbollah in Lebanon 19 June threatened to strike Cyprus if it allowed Israel to use airports and ports to strike Gaza; Republic of Cyprus govt next day clarified “Cyprus is not involved, and will not be involved” in any military operations in Middle East. Turkish FM Hakan Fidan 24 June alleged Republic of Cyprus serves as military base for Israel’s operations in Gaza, warned of risk of regional escalation; Republic of Cyprus govt next day denied claims.

UN personal envoy carried on with diplomacy in bid to find common ground aimed at returning to formal talks.

UN Sec-Gen’s Personal Envoy to Cyprus Maria Holguin Cuellar conducted third round of visits to stakeholder countries since Jan. After meetings in Turkish capital Ankara 6 May, Holguin said Turkish FM Hakan Fidan was “willing to listen with an open mind”. Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar 8 May refused to hold trilateral meeting with Holguin and Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides unless “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) is considered separate and sovereign entity. After briefly meeting Tatar 13 May, Holguin expressed her surprise at Tatar’s refusal to entertain trilateral meetings and reiterated her wish to pursue formal talks until end of her mandate in July. Holguin 13 May met Greek FM Gerapetritis in Greek capital Athens who said Greece was exerting all its influence to bring about trilateral meeting on Cyprus. Tatar 15 May revealed he insisted on “direct flights, direct trade and direct contact” in addition to recognition of “TRNC’s” equal sovereignty as preconditions for return to formal talks. Christodoulides 15 May said sole aim of his govt was return to talks.

UN personal envoy maintained her search for common ground between parties, aiming for return to formal talks.

Ahead of expiration of UN Sec-Gen’s Personal Envoy to Cyprus Maria Holguin Cuellar’s mandate in early June, Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar 5 April met UN Sec-Gen António Guterres in New York City, after which Tatar reiterated his scepticism toward envoy by saying he did not believe Cuellar could find common ground between sides; Tatar urged all parties to recognise existence of “two peoples, two democratic states, two authorities” and also warned against flare-up of tensions on island, saying “little misunderstanding” such as accidental shooting of Turkish soldier could “turn the situation into a new Gaza”. Republic of Cyprus next day described Tatar’s remarks as incompatible with future of their “mutual” homeland. Republic of Cyprus FM Constantin Kombos 11 April voiced readiness to resume formal talks but said Turkish Cypriots and Türkiye had imposed new conditions. Holguin 29 April visited Belgian capital Brussels for meetings with high level EU officials, including European Council President Charles Michel. Meanwhile, EU Council’s declaration 18 April hinged enhancement of ties with Türkiye in part on progress on Cyprus issues; Ankara same day accused EU of “reductionism” in tying broader cooperation to Cyprus. 

UN personal envoy continued careful diplomacy to explore potential common ground between parties for return to formal talks.

Prospects of new round of negotiations between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots for settlement remained uncertain. UN Sec-Gen’s Personal Envoy to Cyprus Maria Angela Holguin 11 March returned to island for second round of meetings with Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides and “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) leader Ersin Tatar, as well as political parties, civil society, and religious representatives from both communities. Holguin 16 March called for “transforming the hardships of the past into the foundation for a sustainable future”, while indicating that she was carrying on with her mission to explore whether common ground for negotiations existed. Meanwhile, in reference to 1974 Turkish invasion of island, Turkish President Erdoğan 19 March said “perhaps if we had pushed south […] there would be no more south and north, and Cyprus would be completely ours”, triggering strong rebuke from Republic of Cyprus and Greece. Christodoulides 21 March said that positive steps regarding enhancement of Türkiye’s relations with EU was dependent on “concrete progress” on Cyprus issue. 

Newly-appointed UN personal envoy kickstarted first round of deliberations in search of common ground between parties. 

UN Sec-Gen’s new Personal Envoy for Cyprus, Maria Holguin Cuellar, 30 Jan commenced visit to Cyprus, stating that her first mission would be to investigate whether there is “common ground” and “listen attentively” to parties’ positions; Cuellar early Feb met Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides and “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) leader Ersin Tatar before visiting Athens, Ankara and London. Notably, Turkish Cypriot leadership remained sceptical of prospects of new negotiations, as de facto FM Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu suggested he did not expect Holguin to finish her mandate and that there was no common ground to be found. “TRNC” seeks recognition of existence of “two states and two democracies” on island, while Republic of Cyprus seeks return to dialogue on basis of 2017 framework.

UN appointed new personal envoy, which could mark possible step toward eventual return to formal talks although sides clung to long-held positions. 

UN Sec Gen filled “personal envoy” role. UN Sec Gen António Guterres 5 Jan announced former Colombian FM Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar would fill UN “personal envoy” position, last appointed in 2017 and vacant since Oct 2021, after relevant parties gave their consent to appointment. Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides same day welcomed appointment and said he was determined to resume formal talks based on UN resolutions. Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar cautioned that new negotiations could only begin if de facto Turkish Cypriot administration in north was given same international status as Republic of Cyprus, while both Ankara and “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) clarified they approved appointment on condition that mandate does not exceed six months and focuses solely on exploring if there exists “common ground” for talks. Turkish Cypriot “FM” Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu 11 Jan rejected possibility of continuing negotiations from where they left off in failed 2017 summit, calling for new process based on rectifying unequal status of two sides. Cuellar 29-30 Jan visited Cyprus and met with various political and civil society actors, including leaders of two communities. Meanwhile, Christodoulides 27 Jan unveiled fourteen-point plan of measures and benefits for Turkish Cypriots; “TRNC’s” “PM” Ünal Üstel denounced plan as attempt to “fool Turkish Cypriots”. UN Security Council 30 Jan voted unanimously to renew mandate of UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for another twelve months. 

Arrest of Turkish Cypriot lawyer stoked controversy. Tatar 11 Jan said that late Dec arrest of lawyer Akan Kürşat in Italy, prompted by Republic of Cyprus police filing complaint over money laundering and embezzlement, was attempt to disrupt Cuellar’s work; Christodoulides 13 Jan denied any link between case and recent attempts at putting negotiations back on track.

Tensions persisted over activity in buffer zone, while Greek and Turkish Cypriots appeared to inch toward agreement on new UN envoy.

Tensions continued in buffer zone and over other issues. Strains between Republic of Cyprus and “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) remained high over buffer zone activities following what Republic of Cyprus in Nov called Turkish Cypriot “violations”, including installation of camera and antenna on uninhabited house; after late Nov announcing “invisible and visible” measures in response to activity, Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides 1 Dec discussed situation in Ayios Dhometious area with UN Sec Gen Antonio Guterres and 3 Dec visited area. Meanwhile, Republic of Cyprus parliament 21 Dec approved “Maritime Spatial Plan” concerning maritime resource exploitation off Cyprus; Turkish Cypriot “foreign ministry” 23 Dec denounced plan as “unacceptable”, saying it ignored Turkish Cypriot rights. Republic of Cyprus 22 Dec said it was closely monitoring property developments in “TRNC” concerning appropriation of Greek Cypriot properties. Christodoulides 7 Dec suggested improved Greek-Turkish ties could help progress on Cyprus issue (see Türkiye).

Parties reportedly moved closer to appointing first UN envoy in six years. Greek sources announced Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot sides had agreed on new UN envoy, vacant since 2017, but Ankara, “TRNC” or UN did not officially confirm appointment during Dec; Republic of Cyprus 6 Dec announced its consent to appoint envoy, rumoured to be former Colombian FM Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar.

UN-brokered understanding on buffer zone faced strains, while agreement on new UN envoy remained elusive.

Tensions resurfaced around buffer zone, undermining UN deal struck in Oct. After UN in early Oct brokered deal on road construction by Turkish Cypriots to connect Pile/Pyla village (located in UN buffer zone) to “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”), leader of “TRNC” Ersin Tatar 1 Nov met UN Deputy Sec Gen for Peace Operations, claiming Greek Cypriots had “started construction activities” in areas around village and requesting UN intervention. “TRNC” FM Tahsin Ertugruloglu same day argued such works breached UN-brokered mutual understanding and demanded cessation. Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides 6 Nov reported that UN had “requested a short pause” in construction to deal with “TRNC” complaints and 11 Nov denied the works violated UN understanding, asserting that “TRNC” had effectively “backed away” from it. Republic of Cyprus 21 Nov ruled out renegotiating deal and called on UN to facilitate “swift resumption of work”. Republic of Cyprus 27 Nov claimed “serious ongoing violation of the buffer zone” in reference to installation by Turkish Cypriots of rotating camera and antenna on uninhabited house; TRNC said it was aimed at preventing illegal immigration. Christodoulides 28 Nov warned of consequences if status quo not restored after around 40 armed Turkish Cypriot soldiers were sighted in buffer zone previous day.

Search for agreement on UN envoy continued. After Greek Cypriot media late Oct reported that “TRNC” had rejected Julie Bishop, potential candidate to fill UN envoy role vacant since 2017, due to her Australian nationality, Christodoulides 11 Nov accused Türkiye of “making excuses” by not accepting her for coming from “Commonwealth country”. Tatar 15 Nov said “TRNC” was waiting for new envoy proposal; Christodoulides 20 Nov said he expected new choice imminently.

In another important development. International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) and nearly 70 media organisations 14 Nov published report alleging dozens of Russian oligarchs used financial services in Republic of Cyprus to evade Western sanctions, including those imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022; Republic of Cyprus police subsequently opened criminal investigation.

Tensions continued to diminish following agreement on disputed road constructed by de facto Turkish Cypriot authorities and intensified diplomatic efforts to appoint UN envoy.

UN brokered deal between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. UN Mission in Cyprus 9 Oct announced “understanding” between sides on road construction by Turkish Cypriots to connect Pile/Pyla village (located in UN buffer zone) to “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”), which had contributed to upsurge in tensions in Aug that led to violent skirmishes in buffer zone; deal granted Turkish Cypriots permission to continue building road, while both sides confirmed inviolability of Green Line demarcating boundary between sides. Republic of Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides 17 Oct said agreement was “important” in restoring status quo in buffer zone, while “TRNC” de facto foreign ministry 18 Oct accused Republic of Cyprus of trying to portray agreement as “own victory” and as step to expand UN Security Council “authority and dominance”; Türkiye 9 Oct welcomed agreement, saying it exemplified “TRNC’s” “constructive attitude”. De facto Turkish Cypriot authorities 23 Oct resumed construction of road as per agreement.

Signs emerged of possible progress toward appointment of UN envoy. After “TRNC” last month refused further talks on UN envoy’s appointment, saying it would not compromise its sovereignty, Republic of Cyprus 16 Oct said it had not reached final decision on appointment, amid reports circulating about potential candidates for role; position has been vacant since 2017 and filling it could symbolise step toward return to formal talks. After meeting with UN Sec Gen António Guterres during Cairo Peace Summit, Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides 22 Oct said he was more optimistic about prospects of resuming formal talks on Cyprus question; govt next day said appointment of UN Envoy to Cyprus as soon as possible would be important development for resumption of negotiations with Turkish Cypriots. Christodoulides 26 Oct said govt had given its consent for UN envoy appointment; Ankara and “TRNC” had not yet announced their consent.

Tensions diminished in buffer zone following violent skirmishes in Aug, while rhetoric from Republic of Cyprus and Turkish Cypriot leadership signalled wide gulf between sides.

After tensions in UN buffer zone subsided following violent skirmishes between Turkish Cypriots and UN personnel in Aug, parties during Sept traded criticism and rhetorical barbs over different visions to resolve Cyprus question. In fiery speech, “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) leader Ersin Tatar 13 Sept asserted that Cyprus is Turkish island and accused those supporting federative formula of aligning with “game” played against Turkish Cypriots. Addressing UN General Assembly, Republic of Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides 20 Sept said “just like in Ukraine, in Cyprus the UN Charter and international law continue to be violated” and asserted “there is not, and never will be, another basis for settlement of the Cyprus question to that dictated by the United Nations Security Council resolutions”, requesting UN to appoint envoy to prepare for resumption of talks. In response, Tatar 21 Sept called remarks “shallow and insincere”, saying that Greek Cypriot administration could not represent Turkish Cypriots. After rejecting calls for unification on 20 Sept, Tatar 23 Sept reiterated “TRNC” “will not compromise on the principle of sovereignty” after meeting UN Sec Gen Antonio Guterres. Ankara and Turkish Cypriot leadership on various occasions during Sept pressed for recognition of de facto Turkish Cypriot administration in north.