CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Parliament enacted contentious ‘foreign agents’ legislation, prompting West to impose punitive measures; South Ossetia held parliamentary elections.

Parliament enacted “Foreign Agents” bill and other controversial legislation. Parliament speaker Shalva Papuashvili 3 June signed into law ‘foreign agents’ bill, which compels NGOs and independent media receiving over 20% of their funding from abroad to register as entities “representing the interests of a foreign power”; law comes into full force in August. Many of Georgia’s most prominent NGOs continued to vow defiance, dubbing measure the “Russian law” for its resemblance to Moscow’s own bill used to stifle dissent. Meanwhile, ruling Georgian Dream party moved ahead with other controversial legislation. Notably, Papuashvili 4 June ratified “offshore law” easing movement of offshore assets to Georgia and raising fears country could become hub for illicit funds benefiting Georgian Dream’s billionaire founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, and his allies; parliament 27 July adopted bill limiting rights of LGBTQI+ community in first reading.

West imposed punitive measures on ruling party. In response to foreign agents law, U.S. State Department 6 June announced visa restrictions on dozens of ruling party members and their families, hinted that more sanctions would follow unless Georgia’s leaders “reconsider their actions”. EU High Representative Joseph Borrell 24 June announced EU will “downgrade our political contacts” with Georgia and reconsider financial assistance, all while reiterating threat to country’s EU path. 

South Ossetia held legislative elections, among most competitive yet. Thousands of voters in breakaway region South Ossetia 9 June headed to polls to elect legislature. Nykhas party, led by current de facto president Alan Gagloyev, secured majority with 10 out of 34 seats; opposition United Ossetia party, led by Anatoliy Bibilov, came second with seven seats. Polls among most competitive since Russia recognised region’s independence in 2008, with high participation from various political parties, raising hopes for more vibrant political scene going forward. Georgia, U.S., EU and other Western countries dismissed election as illegitimate. 

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Georgia descended further into crisis over ‘foreign influence’ legislation as protests expanded and opponents faced violence and intimidation; foreign partners condemned law.

Legislature approved ‘foreign influence’ bill. Parliament 14 May approved controversial law on ‘Transparency of Foreign Influence’, which requires NGOs and media outlets that receive over one fifth of their funding from abroad to register as organisations representing foreign interests. President Zourabichvili 18 May vetoed law, which parliament 28 May voted to override, paving way for speaker to sign bill into law.

Unrest in streets deepened as activists faced violence. Mass protests, led primarily by young people, continued in capital Tbilisi and spread to other cities amid fears legislation will lead to crackdown on media freedom and civil liberties – vital issues ahead of Oct parliamentary election. Police responded harshly to demonstrators, while activists, opposition politicians and journalists faced beatings and intimidation from unidentified assailants, including physical assaults and threatening phone calls; activists claimed authorities orchestrated actions. 

Efforts to reverse legislation extended beyond streets. On domestic front, President Zourabichvili 26 May proposed roadmap out of crisis, dubbed “Georgian Charter”, inviting fractious opposition parties to unite under one bloc to take on Georgian Dream in Oct elections; if successful at polls, provisional govt made up of opposition representatives would be established, tasked with enacting pro-EU reforms and scheduling early elections in 2025. Group of NGOs 30 May announced intention to contest legislation at Constitutional Court. On international front, U.S. Sec-State Antony Blinken 23 May announced visa restrictions on number of govt officials, while EU High Representative Josep Borrell 28 May warned law “will negatively impact Georgia’s EU path”.

Kobakhidze met Turkish leader in Ankara. PM Kobakhidze 16 May met with Türkiye’s President Erdoğan in Turkish capital Ankara, during which pair signed Memorandum of Understanding on energy cooperation.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Ruling party Georgian Dream reintroduced “Foreign Agents” law, triggering protests and harsh police response; EU warned of implications for accession process.

Ruling party reintroduced “Foreign Agents” law, prompting major backlash. Georgian Dream 3 April revived draft “foreign agents” law, having withdrawn bill in March 2023 after massive street protests and international opposition; law would require media and NGOs to register as organisations serving “interests of a foreign power” if they receive over 20% of their funding from abroad, which critics have warned mimics repressive Russian legislation. Parliament committee hearing on legislation 15 April led to brawl among MPs, while thousands took to streets in protest, prompting tough police response; rights group Amnesty International 17 April criticised “excessive force”. Thousands 28 April staged “March for Europe”. Ruling party next day passed law in second reading, organised pro-govt counter-rally; in speech to protesters, Georgian Dream founder and billionaire Bidzina Ivanshvili expressed support for draft law and accused Western “global party of war” of meddling in Georgia through opposition and NGOs. Protests 30 April led to harsh crackdown as police used tear gas, while reportedly beating and arresting scores. Meanwhile, EU and U.S. 17, 18 April respectively urged ruling party to retract law, with EU warning it could “compromise Georgia’s EU path”; European Parliament 25 April threatened revision of visa-free scheme and sanctions against Ivanshvili.

Political tensions continued to rise amid forthcoming elections. Georgian Dream 4 April voted to abolish gender quota for political parties in Oct parliamentary elections; opposition party Girchi proposed initiative in exchange for backing ruling party’s nominee for chairperson of Central Election Committee. President Zourabichvili 18 April vetoed amendments on gender quotas. Meanwhile, authorities 8 April revoked registration of pro-Kremlin Conservative Movement amid corruption allegations; party same day said move was politically motivated.

Latest round of Geneva International Discussions took place. 60th round of Geneva International Discussions – multilateral forum to address security and humanitarian consequences of 2008 Russo-Georgian War – 4-5 April took place without new announcements. Participants scheduled next round for June.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Breakaway regions voted in Russia’s presidential election, political camps stepped up preparations for October parliamentary polls, and new legislation sought to clamp down on LGBTQ+ rights.

Tbilisi condemned Russia for holding presidential elections in breakaway regions. Voters in breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia 15-17 March cast their ballots in Russian presidential election, voting overwhelmingly in support of incumbent Vladimir Putin. Foreign Ministry and EU 18 March condemned “illegal” polls in “occupied regions”. NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg 18 March visited capital Tbilisi, where he criticised Russia’s conduct of elections in breakaways and discussed ways to enhance partnership with “one of NATO’s closest partners”; PM Kobakhidze same day reiterated Georgia’s dedication to NATO integration. Meanwhile, speaker of South Ossetia’s de facto parliament 17 March said de facto authorities and Russia were “discussing” possibility of South Ossetia’s integration into Russian Federation.

New parties emerged ahead of October parliamentary elections. Ruling and opposition forces stepped up election preparations. Notably, former members and close allies of ruling Georgian Dream party 18 March held founding congress of new political party, People’s Power, whose main goal is to “finally prosecute” opposition United National Movement (UNM) party for alleged crimes committed during UNM rule 2004-2012; many view movement’s transformation into a political party as attempt to bolster Georgian Dream in election. Meanwhile, divided opposition also ramped up electoral preparations, with former chairman of UNM and founder of opposition Mtavari TV 11 March announcing new Akhali party.

Ruling party sought to crackdown on LGBTQ+ rights. Georgian Dream’s parliamentary leader Mamuka Mdinaradze 25 March unveiled draft legislation that would prohibit people from changing gender, outlaw same-sex couples from adopting children, and ban education and public gatherings it says “popularise” same-sex relationships. Mdinaradze said legislation designed to protect “family values and minors”. Human rights institution Council of Europe 28 March condemned “homophobic” bill amid fears move could endanger Georgia’s path toward EU membership.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Irakli Kobakhidze became new prime minister following ruling party reshuffle, and breakaway Abkhazia stepped up restrictions on international organisations and civil society. 

Parliament named new PM as Oct elections inched closer. Following resignation of former PM Gharibashvili late Jan and return to politics of ruling Georgian Dream party’s billionaire founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, parliament 8 Feb appointed Irakli Kobakhidze as new PM; move came as Georgia gears up for Oct parliamentary elections. Opposition same day dismissed reshuffle as little more than a swap between “Ivanishvili’s political puppets”. 

Concerns grew about deepening restrictions in breakaway Abkhazia. EU Special Representative Toivo Klaar 14 Feb met with key Georgian officials in capital Tbilisi to discuss situation in breakaway regions and EU’s conflict resolution efforts. Meetings came after Abkhazia late Jan declined Klaar’s request for visit to region, prompting concern about region’s reduced engagement with EU and, according to Klaar, “increasing restrictions being placed on our work and the work of UN agencies, international NGOs and local civil society organisations”. De facto presidential administration 7 Feb submitted draft “foreign agents” law to de facto govt, which mimics Russia’s increasingly repressive legislation on “foreign representatives”; if approved, bill would designate individuals and organisations that receive money from abroad (excluding countries that recognise Abkhazia as an independent state) “foreign agents”.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

PM Garibashvili resigned from office, official in breakaway Abkhazia announced construction of Russian naval base in region could begin in 2024, and ruling party sought closer ties with China. 

PM Garibashvili tendered his resignation. PM Garibashvili 29 Jan resigned from his post, citing ruling Georgian Dream party’s “internal democratic principle of rotation” amid reports he will switch positions with party chairman, Irakli Kobakhidze; news came month after return to politics of party’s founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili. 

De facto Abkhaz official said work on Russian naval base could commence in 2024. During interview with Russian news agency RIA Novosti, breakaway Abkhazia region’s de facto Security Council secretary 12 Jan confirmed Moscow is preparing to build naval base in region, and that construction would likely begin in 2024; de facto president Aslan Bzhania in Oct 2023 had announced agreement with Moscow to construct base in Ochamchira town along Black Sea coast amid stepped-up Ukrainian attacks on its Black Sea Fleet in Russian-annexed Crimea. 

Tbilisi strengthened ties with China and Armenia. Kobakhidze 14-20 Jan led delegation to China, held meetings with senior officials to ensure “proper implementation” of 2023 Strategic Partnership Agreement; Chairman of the Parliamentary Foreign Relations Committee Nikoloz Samkharadze 15 Jan said delegation “received a promise of unwavering support from China” to support Georgia’s territorial integrity. Meanwhile, then-PM Garibashvili and his Armenian counterpart 26 Jan signed memorandum on “strategic partnership” in capital Tbilisi.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

EU granted Georgia candidate status, prompting thousands to celebrate in capital as PM Gharibashvili hailed “historic victory”; breakaway Abkhazia’s FM declared U.S. official persona non grata.

European Council granted Georgia long-awaited candidate status. European Council 14 Dec granted EU candidate status to Georgia. PM Gharibashvili hailed decision and thanked European leaders, members of ruling Georgian Dream party and govt for their contributions to “historic victory”. Gharibashvili next day spoke in front of thousands gathered in capital Tbilisi to celebrate, saying victory “belongs to you”. Georgian Dream did not invite President Zourabichvili, currently embroiled in bitter dispute with ruling party, onto stage after accusing her of “doing everything to prevent Georgia from obtaining candidate status”.

In important developments in breakaway Abkhazia. Police in breakaway Abkhazia region 6 Dec reportedly beat up Georgian citizen Temur Karbaia, who died from injuries three days later. Abkhazia’s de facto FM Inal Ardzinba 7 Dec accused U.S. development agency of “non-transparent activities” and “perceived misinformation”, declared its South Caucasus director John Pennell persona non grata and announced foreign ministry would not certify new projects partially or fully funded by agency. European Court of Human Rights 19 Dec found Russia responsible for murder of Georgian citizen Giga Otkhozoria, killed in 2016 on Georgian side of line separating Abkhazia from Georgia proper.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

European Commission recommended Georgia be granted long-awaited candidate status; Russian border guards killed Georgian civilian in breakaway South Ossetia.

European Commission recommended EU candidacy status for Georgia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen 8 Nov announced that “Commission recommends that the (European) Council grants Georgia the status of a candidate country on the understanding that certain reforms steps are taken”; European Council will take formal decision in Dec 2023. Both PM Garibashvili and President Zourabichvili welcomed decision as thousands took to streets of capital Tbilisi to voice support for EU membership. Head of EU Delegation to Georgia, Paweł Herczyński, same day congratulated country but noted that candidate status is contingent on “fulfilling important steps”, including need to align Georgia’s foreign policy on Russia with EU.

Russian border guards killed Georgian civilian in South Ossetia. Russian troops 6 Nov shot dead Georgian civilian Tamaz Ginturi and detained another near line that separates breakaway South Ossetia from Georgia proper; de facto South Ossetian officials next day published statement claiming civilians had “illegally crossed” into breakaway region, “displayed an extreme level of aggression” and that Ginturi was killed “during the measures taken to detain the violators”. EU Monitoring Mission 6 Nov assembled officials from Georgia, Russia and breakaway South Ossetia, next day announced increased presence along separation line; de facto officials 9 Nov released second civilian.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Ruling party did not secure enough votes to impeach President Zourabichvili; de facto leadership in breakaway Abkhazia announced Russian plans for naval base in region.

Ruling Georgian Dream party’s attempt to impeach president failed. Constitutional Court 16 Oct ruled in favour of Georgian Dream’s claim that President Zourabichvili violated constitution when she travelled to EU countries late Aug-early Sept, though three of nine judges dissented decision. Georgian Dream 18 Oct initiated impeachment hearings in parliament, but was unable to secure 100 votes needed to remove her from office. Impeachment attempt triggered criticism from European countries, notably France, and threatens Georgia’s prospects for candidate status.

Russian plans to build naval base in breakaway Abkhazia drew condemnation. Following 4 Oct meeting between leaders of Russia and breakaway Abkhazia, region’s de facto president Aslan Bzhania 5 Oct said Moscow is planning to construct naval base in Ochamchira town along Black Sea coast; announcement came after satellite images 1 Oct showed Moscow had withdrawn bulk of its Black Sea Fleet from Russian-annexed Crimea to safeguard it from Ukrainian attacks (see Ukraine). Tbilisi 5 Oct said move would constitute “flagrant violation of Georgia’s sovereignty”, which number of Western countries echoed; several civil society activists in Abkhazia warned region risks becoming entangled in Ukraine conflict.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

President Zourabichvili faced impeachment, and PM Garibashvili underscored commitment to EU integration during UN General Assembly address.

Ruling party moved to impeach president over Europe tour. Ruling Georgian Dream party 1 Sept launched impeachment proceedings against President Zourabichvili, who days prior began touring EU countries to drum up support for Georgia’s EU candidate status, for which decision will be announced in Oct. Ruling party chairman Irakli Kobakhidze accused Zourabichvili of violating constitution by visiting EU member states without govt approval and claimed trip “directly opposes the efforts of the Georgian government to receive the said [candidate] status”. EU High Representative Josep Borrell 8 Sept said impeachment was “counterproductive polarisation” and urged Tbilisi to work on “depolarisation”, “de-oligarchisation” and reforms.

PM’s speech at UN focused on breakaway regions and EU integration. Speaking to UN General Assembly 22 Sept, PM Garibashvili emphasized Georgia’s desire to reunite with breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and urged Russia to engage in Geneva International Discussions – multilateral forum to address security and humanitarian consequences of 2008 Russo-Georgian War; Garibashvili further underscored govt’s commitment to EU integration. De facto foreign ministry of breakaway South Ossetia 24 Sept urged Georgia to “accept geopolitical realities” established in 2008.

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