Israel escalated deadly violence in West Bank and approved plans to recognise illegal settlements, while Israeli assault on Gaza Strip continued; Israel and Hizbollah intensified cross-border attacks, threatening expanded conflict.

Israeli security forces and settlers stepped up attacks across West Bank, govt approved plans to “legalise” settlements. Notably, Israeli forces 11 June killed six Palestinians in Kafr Dan village; Israeli airstrike 30 June killed Palestinian and injured five in Nur Shams refugee camp. UN Security Council members, including U.S., 25 June voiced concern about escalating violence in West Bank and expansion of illegal settlements. Israeli govt 27 June approved plan to “legalise” five settlement outposts illegal under Israeli law. 

Israel killed hundreds in operation to free hostages in Gaza. Israel’s June operations in Gaza killed over 1,500, bringing total death toll since Oct to at least 37,765 Palestinians. In central Gaza, Israeli forces 8 June launched operation in Nuseirat refugee camp, rescuing four Israeli hostages while killing 274 Palestinians. In south, Israel continued incursion into Rafah and 17 June claimed control of 70% of city. Israel maintained control of Gaza-Egypt border and Rafah crossing remained closed. Israel Defense Forces 16 June announced “tactical pause” in fighting during daylight along main road in southern Gaza to allow aid in from Kerem Shalom crossing; PM Netanyahu denounced pause. Israeli military 27 June ordered evacuation of residents east of Gaza city, displacing estimated 60,000-80,000 and leaving around 78% of Gaza Strip under evacuation orders. 

Ceasefire proposal made no headway and Israeli war cabinet dissolved. Following U.S. President Biden’s ceasefire proposal outlined late May, negotiations remained stalled, with Hamas demanding Israel’s commitment to permanent ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza, and Israel refusing to endorse end of war. Meanwhile, centrists Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot 9 June left Israeli war cabinet and coalition govt, citing failure to set out post-war plan for Gaza, and Netanyahu 17 June dissolved war cabinet. Israeli Supreme Court 25 June ruled to end military exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, setting stage for tensions in coalition.

Pressure mounted for all-out war against Hizbollah. Amid domestic pressure notably from displaced Israelis and right-wing ministers for all-out war against Hizbollah, cross-border attacks escalated (see Lebanon).

Israel launched long-feared Rafah offensive, displacing around 1m and exacerbating risk of famine, as international prosecutor sought arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders; domestic pressure mounted on Netanyahu.

Israel launched deadly and destructive offensive in Rafah. Israel killed over 1,700 Palestinians in May, bringing death toll since Oct to at least 36,224. Israeli forces 7 May launched ground invasion in eastern Rafah and gradually expanded assault into city, prompting around 1m of 1.4m seeking refuge there to flee; Israel same day occupied Rafah crossing and closed all humanitarian aid deliveries, worsening famine conditions. World Food Programme 22 May warned humanitarian operations are “near collapse”. International Court of Justice 24 May ordered Israel to halt Rafah offensive yet Israel continued advance; Israeli strike in Rafah 27 May killed at least 45, including many women and children. Alleged Israeli strike next day targeted camp in so-called “safe zone” hosting displaced in al-Mawasi, killing at least 21. Exchange of fire with Egyptian forces at border crossing 27 May killed Egyptian soldier; Israel 29 May announced full control of 14km “Philadelphi Corridor” along Gaza-Egyptian border (see Egypt). Meanwhile, Israel continued ground incursions in north, namely Jabalia city and areas around Gaza city, where Hamas demonstrated its ability to regroup and battle Israeli forces in areas previously “cleared”. Hamas 3-6 May launched attacks on Kerem Shalom crossing, killing four Israeli soldiers, and 26 May launched first rockets at Tel Aviv since Jan. Gaza’s authorities 8 May announced discovery of seventh mass grave of Palestinian bodies at a hospital.

Israel rejected ceasefire; International Criminal Court (ICC) mulled leaders’ arrest. Hamas 6 May accepted Qatar- and Egypt-mediated ceasefire proposal, which Israel 8 May rejected. ICC prosecutor Karim Khan 20 May sought arrest warrants against Israeli PM Netanyahu, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and three Hamas leaders.

Israel’s war cabinet faced widening cracks. Gallant 15 May criticised Netanyahu for failure to provide “day-after” Gaza plan. War cabinet member Benny Gantz 18 May criticised Netanyahu for acting in personal interests and 30 May proposed vote to dissolve parliament to bring elections.

Israel raided West Bank and battled Hizbollah. In West Bank, Israeli forces conducted deadly raids and demolitions, displacing hundreds, and settlers continued attacks. Tit-for-tat strikes with Hizbollah remained intense (see Lebanon).

Israel’s destructive war in Gaza killed hundreds more Palestinians amid worsening famine and threat of Rafah invasion, while settler violence surged in West Bank; Israeli strike triggered unprecedented confrontation with Iran. 

In Gaza, Israel’s deadly attacks continued amid discovery of mass graves, famine and Rafah offensive. Israel killed almost 2,000 Palestinians in April, bringing death toll to at least 34,535 since Oct. Israel 1 April lifted two-week siege on al-Shifa hospital, which killed hundreds including medical staff; after withdrawal, observers on ground reported mass graves with bodies allegedly displaying signs of extrajudicial executions, torture and rape. Israel 1 April repeatedly targeted World Central Kitchen aid convoy, killing seven aid workers, prompting international outcry; UN data showed Israel has killed more than 180 aid workers since Oct. Israel 7 April pulled out most troops from Khan Younis city but 22 April reportedly re-entered city’s east. Israel conducted repeated airstrikes on Rafah city, as it threatened ground invasion that could kill or again displace many of 1.4m Palestinians seeking refuge there. UNRWA chief 17 April warned “man-made famine is tightening its grip” across Gaza and accused Israel of continued aid obstruction, while World Food Program 24 April remarked “all three famine thresholds – food insecurity, malnutrition, mortality – will be passed in the next six weeks”. Round of ceasefire talks 7 April resumed in Egypt; new momentum late April reportedly improved prospects of deal.

Israel and Iran exchanged direct blows; Israel-Hizbollah hostilities intensified. Airstrike on Iranian consular facility in Syrian capital Damascus, widely attributed to Israel, 1 April killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel. In response, Iran 13 April unleashed barrage of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel in first ever direct attack (see Iran and Conflict in Focus). Meanwhile, hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah escalated (see Lebanon).

Settlers rampaged West Bank. Israeli forces and settlers killed dozens of Palestinians in April, bringing total killed in West Bank to at least 470 since 7 Oct. Notably, abduction and killing of 14-year-old Israeli 12 April sparked settler rampage in at least seventeen villages, killing four. In largest land seizure since Oslo Accords, Israel late March declared 800 hectares in West Bank “state land”.

Gaza faced “imminent famine” as Israel targeted and restricted aid and reiterated threat to invade Rafah amid stalled ceasefire talks; Israel intensified crackdown on West Bank and clashed with Hizbollah in north.

Amid imminent famine in Gaza, Israel killed thousands more and restricted aid. Israel continued its war, killing at least 32,700 since Oct and displacing two million; UNRWA head 13 March reported 12,300 of those killed were children, a higher toll than all children killed in conflict worldwide from 2019-2022. Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 18 March warned “famine is imminent as 1.1 million people, half of Gaza, experience catastrophic food insecurity”. Israel continuously blocked and restricted aid supplies in March, as starvation/dehydration killed at least 27 children in northern Gaza, and Israeli forces mid-March killed dozens of Palestinians waiting for aid delivery in Gaza city. Israel 24 March banned UNRWA food aid deliveries to north. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu repeatedly reiterated intention to invade Rafah, currently sheltering 1.5 million Palestinians, to eliminate remaining Hamas forces despite U.S. opposition; Israeli forces 18 March for second time besieged al-Shifa hospital, where over 30,000 have sought shelter, claiming Hamas re-organised itself there; following Israeli withdrawal, reports of alleged atrocities surfaced. Ceasefire negotiations continued. Hamas 15 March reiterated demand for 40-day ceasefire leading to end of hostilities, withdrawal of Israeli troops and detainee exchange, which Israel rejected as “unrealistic”. Stop-start talks thereafter continued, offering hope deal could avert Rafah offensive. UN Security Council 25 March called for “immediate ceasefire” during Ramadan; Israel rebuked U.S. for its abstention. 

Israel ramped up crackdown in West Bank and East Jerusalem. Settler violence remained high, while Israel deployed around 15,000 additional soldiers to West Bank during Ramadan and intensified crackdown on Muslim worshippers in East Jerusalem. Israeli forces continued raids, killing at least 434 since 7 Oct; notably, Israeli drone strike 20 March killed four in Jenin refugee camp. 

Internal divisions wracked Israeli govt. Israel’s war cabinet remained paralysed as signs of instability in PM Netanyahu’s coalition grew, including over looming military conscription law requiring ultra-Orthodox Jews to serve. 

Israel-Hizbollah attacks escalated. Israel expanded attacks against Hizbollah deeper into Lebanese territory, highlighting risk of expanded war (see Lebanon).

Israel killed thousands more in Gaza, as over half a million faced famine, and threatened all-out Rafah attack that could decimate 1.5m there; Israel’s Ramadan restrictions could fuel violence in West Bank and beyond.

Israel targeted Gaza’s south, as aid restrictions increased risk of mass starvation. Israeli forces continued massive bombardment and operations across strip, bringing Palestinian death toll to over 30,000 as of 29 Feb. Israel expanded attacks on Rafah in south that hosts over half of strip’s population, vast majority of which is displaced. Even as Israeli military intelligence warned Hamas will remain intact as guerrilla group, war cabinet repeatedly insisted on large-scale ground offensive in Rafah to take out remaining Hamas battalions and 18 Feb said all-out offensive would commence if hostages were not released by Ramadan on 10 March; operation will likely be bloodbath, worsen already-catastrophic conditions and fuel further displacement, including potentially into Egypt (see Egypt). Israeli forces also battled Palestinian militants in Jabalya and Gaza city (north), Deir el Balah (centre) and Khan Younis (south), as rockets into Israel continued. Risk of mass starvation rose further, as aid inflow fell by half in Feb and UN reported 90% of population facing high level of acute food insecurity and almost 600,000 “one step away from famine”; report by U.S./UK universities 19 Feb estimated tens of thousands could die in next six months due to collapsed services. UN special rapporteur on right to food 27 Feb asserted Israel is intentionally starving Palestinians and declared “situation of genocide”.

Ceasefire negotiations continued. After PM Netanyahu 7 Feb rejected Hamas ceasefire proposal as “delusional”, Israel and Hamas late Feb continued negotiations via mediators, offering hope ceasefire could avert Rafah offensive and release hostages; Netanyahu vowed any ceasefire would merely delay Rafah invasion.

West Bank braced for heightened turmoil during Ramadan. Israel mulled restrictions on Muslim worshippers’ access to Al-Aqsa mosque complex in Jerusalem during Ramadan, which could inflame tensions across West Bank and connect arenas by provoking violent actions by Hizbollah/Palestinian factions in Lebanon. Israeli settler violence could escalate, fuelled in part by extremists’ fears that international community may recognise Palestinian state.

Israel-Hizbollah hostilities continued. Deadly cross-border strikes persisted, underscoring lingering risk of wider war (see Lebanon).

Israel intensified assault on southern Gaza amid widespread starvation and disease, as momentum built toward possible ceasefire; West Bank braced for further turmoil and risk of wider conflict with Hizbollah loomed.

War approached fifth month. Israel’s assault on Gaza, which passed its 100th day, displaced 85% of population and killed over 27,000 Palestinians; Israeli soldier death toll reached 218 as of 30 Jan, with 22 Jan marking Israel’s deadliest single day of war. Israel stepped up bombardment in Khan Younis city, including zones it declared “safe”, and indicated plans to expand operations to Rafah, which hosts huge proportion of 2mn displaced. Israel also signalled intent to control Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and Egypt, fuelling tensions with Cairo who warned of “serious threat” to relations and raising risk of mass casualties or mass expulsion. Hamas continued ambush attacks and rocket fire, as reports late Jan suggested group had reconstituted in northern Gaza. Amid collapsing and besieged health services, starvation risks rose: after U.S. and other states suspended funding to relief organisation UNRWA, following allegations of staff involvement in 7 Oct attacks, UN special rapporteur on right to food 28 Jan said “famine is now inevitable”.

Hamas mulled latest ceasefire proposal; Israeli cabinet grew divided. Amid talks in Paris, Hamas 30 Jan said it was considering new ceasefire and hostage release proposal, signalling some diplomatic progress and fuelling hope of possible multi-stage truce. Public and international pressure mounted as Israel appeared no closer to achieving its two main objectives – destroying Hamas and liberating hostages – and war cabinet grew visibly conflicted over path forward: PM Netanyahu 18 Jan rejected two-state solution, openly contradicting Washington. International Court of Justice 26 Jan found it plausible Israel’s acts amount to genocide and ordered Israel to prevent committing/inciting genocide acts. 

Violence in West Bank continued. Israeli forces and settlers have killed 370 Palestinians since 7 Oct; Israeli air strike 7 Jan killed seven Palestinians in Jenin. Reports mid Jan indicated Israeli security agency Shin Bet had warned Palestinian Authority at risk of financial collapse and territory on brink of explosion of violence.

Israel-Hizbollah hostilities continued. Risk of expanded conflict on northern front grew (see Lebanon).

Israel resumed onslaught in Gaza, expanding operations in south as famine loomed, while violence in West Bank worsened; hostilities with Hizbollah escalated, highlighting regional conflict risks.

Israeli assault on Gaza intensified and expanded south, as risk of starvation spread. After seven-day humanitarian pause 1 Dec collapsed, Israel intensified ground operation in Gaza’s north and expanded in south, focusing on Khan Younis city and escalating bombardment, bringing Palestinian death toll since 7 Oct to over 22,000; clashes with Hamas and other militants killed at least 175 Israeli soldiers since start of ground offensive. Gaza authorities late Dec reported Israel had killed 106 Palestinian media workers, marking deadliest conflict for journalists globally. Israeli assault displaced 1.9m amid relentless bombing of hospitals, schools, mosques and churches. Notably, Israeli forces 12 Dec raided Kamal Adwan hospital in north, allegedly crushing dozens of patients and displaced persons with bulldozers; 16 Dec killed two women in Catholic church in Gaza city. Survivors alleged Israel summarily killed civilians, including at UN-run Shadia Abu Ghazala school and in Gaza city. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch 18 Dec accused Israel of using starvation as war tactic. Multi-stakeholder global initiative Integrated Food Security Phase 21 Dec estimated Gaza population at imminent risk of famine. Internationally, U.S. shifted rhetoric, warning Israel against indiscriminate bombing despite continuing to block UN Security Council resolutions for ceasefire.

Talks on hostage exchange resumed. Israeli soldiers 15 Dec mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages in Gaza, increasing pressure on govt to restart hostage negotiations. Israel 19 Dec reportedly offered week-long pause and prisoner release in exchange for 40 hostages; Hamas rejected negotiations without end of bombardment. 

Conditions in West Bank continued deteriorating sharply. Since 7 Oct, Israeli forces and settlers killed over 319 Palestinians, with over 4,500 arrested amid ubiquitous drone strikes and raids. Notably, Israel 14 Dec launched 60-hour operation in Jenin, killing at least twelve.

Border clashes with Hizbollah intensified. Israel expanded targets to residential areas in southern Lebanon. Hizbollah 7 Dec killed Israeli civilian in first non-military casualty since 7 Oct (see Lebanon).

Qatar-brokered truce won pause in Israel’s war in Gaza amid humanitarian crisis, but efforts to extend deal may falter and see return to onslaught; West Bank violence escalated amid hostilities with Hizbollah.

First respite in Israel’s pummelling of Gaza, which killed over 15,000. Israel and Hamas 22 Nov agreed to Qatar-mediated four-day truce beginning 24 Nov that was extended until 30 Nov, pausing hostilities in Gaza to exchange over 100 women and children captured by Hamas with 240 Palestinian women and children detained in Israel; truce held but Israeli forces 24, 26 Nov reportedly killed three Palestinians in Gaza trying to move north. Ahead of pause, Israel escalated bombing campaign and broadened ground incursion, bringing Palestinian death toll to over 15,000, including 6,150 children, with at least 75 Israeli soldiers killed. Despite announcing “safe corridors” for civilians to leave north, Israel bombed evacuation routes and so-called “safe areas” in south, and 15-16 Nov dropped leaflets on eastern Khan Younis calling for evacuation ahead of potential operations that could commence after truce in Gaza’s south. In north, health infrastructure collapsed amid shortages and Israeli assault on hospitals; malnutrition and dehydration killed at least dozen, as UN warned disease could kill more than bombardment. Israel 15-24 Nov conducted ground operations inside al-Shifa hospital in Gaza city, making unverified claims that it contains Hamas command centre.

Conditions in West Bank continued to deteriorate sharply. Since 7 Oct, Israeli forces killed over 240 Palestinians and Israeli settlers – launching almost 300 attacks on properties and individuals – killed at least eight and forcibly displaced fifteen Palestinian communities. Palestinians killed seven Israelis; Hamas 30 Nov claimed gun attack in West Jerusalem that killed three. Palestinian armed groups began to reestablish in north and spread into Bethlehem, Hebron and Ramallah, clashing with Israeli forces; in Jenin, Israeli forces 9 Nov killed fourteen and 29 Nov killed four, including eight-year-old boy.

Border clashes with Hizbollah continued, underscoring risk of wider war. Cross-border attacks penetrated further into respective territories, killing civilians and risking spiral of escalation that could trigger all-out war. Israel-Hamas pause was upheld along Israel-Lebanon front late Nov (see Lebanon).

Hamas slaughtered 1,400 in unprecedented attack, triggering indiscriminate Israeli bombardment of Gaza that killed over 8,500 and set off humanitarian crisis; threat of regional war loomed large, as Qatari mediation offered slim hope for talks.

Hamas’s assault triggered full-scale war. Hamas 7 Oct launched multi-pronged offensive into southern Israel, killing around 1,400 Israelis and taking at least 200 hostages. Israeli PM Netanyahu 7 Oct declared Israel “at war” and 11 Oct formed emergency govt with opposition. Israel launched 6,000 airstrikes on Gaza in first six days after attack and thousands more since, killing over 8,500 Palestinians, including over 3,500 children, according to Gaza’s health ministry (as of 31 Oct). Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant 9 Oct announced “full siege” of Gaza Strip, cutting off electricity, food, medicine, and water; disease and starvation are poised to become serious additional threats to civilians. Israel 13 Oct ordered evacuation of northern and central Gaza Strip, displacing around 1.4m, and 27 Oct expanded ground operations; while it seems plausible Israel can occupy northern Gaza, how it will deal with Hamas forces in south is unclear; speculation Israel may seek to forcibly displace Gazans into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula triggered fierce Egyptian opposition. Israeli airstrikes 31 Oct hit Jabalia refugee camp, killing dozens. Gaza-based militants fired daily rockets; Israel 31 Oct announced eleven soldiers killed during incursion. Qatari mediation secured release of four hostages, raising prospect indirect communication could release more captives and serve as basis for ceasefire talks. Netanyahu 30 Oct rejected ceasefire, saying “this is a time for war”.

In West Bank, Israeli forces and settlers killed scores of Palestinians. Israel 7 Oct imposed total closure on West Bank and East Jerusalem and reportedly arrested 1,500 Palestinians, while Israeli forces and settlers dramatically stepped up violence, killing at least 118 Palestinians, amid Palestinian protests across territory. In first in decades, Israeli airstrikes 19 and 22 Oct in West Bank killed over dozen.

Border clashes with Hizbollah raised risk of regional war. Near-daily border clashes between Hizbollah and Israeli forces killed dozens of Hizbollah fighters and at least eight Israeli soldiers, raising risk of war spreading to other fronts (see Lebanon).

Lethal Israeli raids and settler violence continued unabated across West Bank amid Palestinian attacks, Israel launched strikes in Gaza and Saudi Arabia signalled possible normalisation deal.

Israeli forces killed over dozen Palestinians. Israeli forces continued arrest raids across West Bank and killed at least 14 Palestinians. Notably, Israeli forces 19 Sept killed four Palestinians and injured 30 in Jenin, and 24 Sept killed two Palestinians in raid on Tulkarem city. Israeli soldier stationed on watchtower overlooking Al-‘Arroub refugee camp in Hebron 9 Sept opened fire on three children, killing one. Daily Israeli settler violence continued: notably, settlers 9 Sept assaulted shepherd in Jordan Valley and 16 Sept stabbed Palestinian in Hebron. Meanwhile, Palestinians continued attacks: 6 Sept injured one Israeli in stabbing in Jerusalem and shooting attack 13 Sept injured two Israelis in Huwara. Israel advanced home demolitions, mainly in East Jerusalem, bringing total to 261 in 2023.

Israeli forces staged attacks in Gaza. Israeli soldiers 13 Sept opened fire at Palestinians protesting at Gaza border in solidarity with prisoners in Israeli jails and marking eighteenth anniversary of Israel’s withdrawal from strip, killing seven and injuring over 25. Israeli forces 19 Sept killed Palestinian in Gaza and 15, 22, 23 Sept launched air attacks at alleged Hamas targets, while protestors continued activities until late month.

Saudi Arabia signalled progress on possible normalisation deal. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 20 Sept said normalisation with Israel was getting closer “every day” (see Saudi Arabia); Kingdom during Sept hosted first official Israeli delegation at UNESCO meeting and Israeli tourism minister, while Palestinian delegation also visited seeking measures on Palestinian statehood in any deal. First Saudi ambassador to Palestine 26 Sept presented credentials to PA President Abbas.

Regional tensions remained high with Syria and Iran. Syrian state media reported Israeli airstrike on Tartous city 13 Sept killed two soldiers. Israel 20 Sept struck two Syrian structures in Golan Heights; alleged Israeli drone next reportedly killed two near Syrian town Beit Jinn (see Syria). Defence Minister Yoav Gallant 11 Sept accused Iran of building airport in southern Lebanon as launchpad for attacks.