RED-Tabara rebels launched deadly attacks, dealing major blow to security forces and confirming group’s comeback in Burundi after lull in violence since 2021; Gitega accused Kigali of supporting rebellion.

Rebel group made comeback with several security forces and civilians killed. DR Congo (DRC)-based RED-Tabara rebels 10 Dec allegedly clashed with army in Bubanza province, killing three soldiers, and 22 Dec launched attack in Vugizo town near border with DR Congo; govt said raid left 19 civilians and one policeman dead, while RED-Tabara claimed nine military and one policeman killed, saying attack targeted Vugizo border post. Incidents come after RED-Tabara in Sept launched first attack on Burundian soil since 2021. Violence led to renewed tensions with Rwanda after months of improvement. President Ndayishimiye 29 Dec accused Kigali of funding and training rebel group, which Kigali immediately denied.

Allegations persisted of Burundian troops fighting Rwanda-backed M23 in DRC. Army 11 Dec reported “all” soldiers of Burundian contingent deployed in eastern DRC as part of East African Community regional force had returned to Burundi after force’s mandate ended. Army same day refused to comment on allegations that Burundian troops have been deployed to DR Congo as part of bilateral agreement between Kinshasa and Gitega, including various accounts of Burundian soldiers wearing Congolese army uniform and combatting Rwanda-backed M23 rebels.

In other important developments. Supreme Court 8 Dec sentenced former PM Alain-Guillaume Bunyoni to life imprisonment on several charges including attempting to overthrow govt and threatening president’s life; alleged violations by security forces during his time as security minister until 2020 were not investigated. Ahead of 2025 legislative elections and 2027 presidential election, Senate 6 Dec and National Assembly next day approved composition of electoral commission, with govt spokesman, Prosper Ntahorwamiye, as commission’s president.

Violence continued in Anglophone and Far North regions; release order in high-profile judicial case caused confusion.

Violence persisted in Anglophone regions. In North West, separatist militia 12 Dec briefly held eight secondary school students hostage and kidnapped two school staff in Wum town, Menchum division; suspected separatists 20 Dec targeted military convoy with improvised explosive device in same area, killing five soldiers. Defence Minister Beti Assomo 31 Dec started visit to Bakassi Peninsula (South West) following weeks of violence and threats from Nigeria’s Biafra separatist militia, which in Oct 2023 signed cooperation agreement with Anglophone separatist group Ambazonia Governing Council. Separatist faction (self-proclaimed Interim Govt of Ambazonia) 11 Dec opened Washington D.C. office after hiring U.S. firm in Oct to lobby for referendum.

Jihadist and other violence continued in Far North region. Suspected Boko Haram combatants 18 Dec attacked security post in Mayo-Sava division; soldiers killed two combatants. Also in Mayo-Sava, residents of Tokombere town 19 Dec demonstrated to demand resignation of mayor, accusing him of land grab and corruption, with some rioters setting gendarmerie office on fire; security forces used live rounds to push back protesters, leaving at least eight dead and others injured.

Military judge dismissed amid tug-of-war over high-profile judicial case. State scandal triggered by kidnapping and murder in Jan 2023 of journalist Martinez Zogo, who had denounced corruption at top of state, continued to linger. Yaoundé military court 1 Dec allegedly ordered provisional release of former intelligence minister Eko Eko and wealthy businessman Amougou Belinga, who have been in detention since March for alleged involvement in Zogo’s murder. Decision was reversed later same day, however, and President Biya 13 Dec replaced military judge in charge of case.

Political manoeuvres started ahead of 2025 presidential election. Opposition party Mouvement pour la Renaissance du Cameroun 10 Dec re-elected Maurice Kamto, runner-up in 2018 presidential election, as chairman; Kamto was sole candidate as internal critics avoided event. Another opposition leader, Cabral Libii, 19 Dec accused govt of trying to prevent him from standing in 2025 after authorities banned his party’s elective congress initially scheduled for 15-17 Dec.

Rebel groups remained active in northern regions, exposing limits of govt’s strategy of weakening them from top down; battle for influence raged between Russia and U.S.

Northern regions remained subject to armed violence, mainly along Chadian border. Clashes between Russian paramilitary Wagner Group and rebels of Central African Patriotic Movement (MPC) 9 Dec left 30 fighters and one Wagner officer dead in Markounda town (Ouham prefecture); violence, which took place after MPC leader Mahamat Al-Khatim in Nov signed agreement with govt allowing MPC’s return to 2019 Khartoum peace deal, illustrated limits of govt’s strategy of pushing warlords to announce dissolution of their groups in absence of credible way out for militiamen under their command. Drones 10 Dec dropped explosive charges on Wagner’s Kaga-Bandoro base (Nana-Gribizi prefecture), killing four Wagner elements and wounding another 13; alliance of major rebel groups Coalition of Patriots for Change denied responsibility. 3R armed group 21 Dec killed 23 civilians in Nzakoundou village, Lim-Pendé prefecture; UN force 27 Dec announced deployment of peacekeepers to reinforce security in area and facilitate humanitarian access.

Russian govt tightened grip on paramilitary Wagner Group empire in CAR. Unconfirmed rumours circulated in capital Bangui of upcoming departure of Vitali Perfilev, once in charge of Wagner Group military operations in Central African Republic, and his replacement by secret intelligence agent Vladimirovich Denis Pavlov, who arrived in Bangui in Sept. Move would suggest that Russian defence ministry is taking control of paramilitary organisation’s activities in country.

U.S. activism against Wagner sparked tensions. As part of its strategy to reduce Wagner influence in Bangui, Washington continued to negotiate security alternatives. U.S.-based private military company Bancroft Global Development late Dec denied having deployed to Bangui but admitted contacts with President Touadéra’s govt to discuss potential cooperation. Presidency late Dec confirmed govt is working to diversify security partnerships, said U.S. is offering to train soldiers. Recent cases of harassment against U.S. nationals suggest reaction to U.S. activism from pro-Wagner factions in govt. Notably, authorities have arrested at least ten international and private sector American workers in Bangui since Oct.

Country approved junta-sponsored constitution in divisive referendum marred by calls for boycott; mounting accusations of Chad taking sides in Sudan conflict strained bilateral relations.

New constitution approved by referendum amid opposition boycott. Constitutional referendum held 17 Dec, with low turnout observed in most major towns and particularly in country’s south; military rulers promoted new constitution as key step toward elections in late 2024 and return to civilian rule, but some opposition and civil society groups had called for referendum boycott, saying new constitution silences debate on federalism by entrenching unitary state, and prepares ground for election of military leader Gen Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno as president. Succès Masra, president of prominent opposition party Les Transformateurs, who returned from exile in Nov, 9 Dec however called for “yes” vote, paving way for his appointment as PM. Electoral commission 24 Dec said new constitution approved by almost 86% of voters, and placed turnout at 63.75%; some opposition leaders including former PM Pahimi Padacké and former minister Yaya Dillo 26 Dec contested figures before Supreme Court, which nonetheless validated results 28 Dec.

Accusation of Chadian interference in Sudanese conflict soured bilateral relations. Sudanese army and foreign affairs ministry late Nov-early Dec alleged Chad is facilitating United Arab Emirates’ support to paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. N’Djamena vehemently denied allegation and 16 Dec expelled four Sudanese diplomats. Khartoum immediately took reciprocal action and expelled three Chadian diplomats.

Several incidents of violence reported across country. In south, farmer-herder violence 7 Dec broke out in Koida village, Moyen-Chari province, with one dead and at least two injured, and 11 Dec left several people seriously injured in Birigui village, Logone Oriental province. Road blockers made comeback to Nord Kanem department, Kanem province in west near border with Niger, with 9 Dec attack on vehicle leaving at least two dead in Nokou locality.

Chad disengaged from region amid reconfiguration of Sahel security architecture. Amid pull-out of UN Mission (MINUSMA) from Mali, Chadian contingent 1 Dec returned home. Chad and Mauritania 6 Dec said exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from G5 Sahel means effective dissolution of anti-jihadist alliance created in 2014.

Opposition rejected presidential election results giving victory to President Tshisekedi, amid widespread logistical issues and reports of irregularities; former election commission chief launched political-military alliance including M23, vowing to oust Tshisekedi.

Electoral commission declared Tshisekedi presidential winner, opposition cried foul. Electoral commission 20 Dec extended voting for general elections by one day amid widespread reports of voting stations unable to operate properly due to missing equipment, voter registers or other paperwork. Four opposition candidates, including Martin Fayulu and Denis Mukwege, 20 Dec denounced breach of electoral law and uneven playing field, calling for rerun. Former President Kabila’s political party same day issued strong statement, implicitly threatening destabilisation. Banned opposition protest 27 Dec left several people wounded in capital Kinshasa, with some protesters throwing stones at security forces who fired tear gas and stormed Fayulu’s campaign headquarters. Election observers from DR Congo’s Protestant and Catholic churches 28 Dec reported “numerous cases of irregularities likely to affect the integrity of the results”. Electoral commission 31 Dec said Tshisekedi re-elected with over 73% of vote. Moïse Katumbi and Fayulu, who came second and third respectively, denounced election as sham and rejected result outright.

Fighting continued between M23 rebels and govt-aligned forces in east. In North Kivu province, M23 maintained pressure on govt forces and allies especially around Sake town in Masisi territory. Fighting reported 4-7 Dec near Mushaki and Kilolirwe towns as M23 reportedly attempted to take over Mushaki. U.S.-sponsored 72-hour ceasefire 11 Dec entered into force, but M23 reportedly used pause to reinforce positions around Sake, allegedly with major reinforcements from Rwanda. M23 around 26 Dec moved closer to Sake and attempted breakthrough toward mining town of Rubaya, further west. East African regional force 21 Dec completed withdrawal after mandate expired.

Political-military coalition, allied to M23, created in Kenya. In Kenya’s capital Nairobi, former head of Congolese electoral commission Corneille Nangaa 15 Dec presented new political-military alliance with M23 and other groups. Kinshasa next day summoned Kenyan ambassador and recalled its own ambassador to Nairobi in protest. Nangaa, speaking from M23 stronghold of Rutshuru territory, 31 Dec vowed to march on Kinshasa to oust Tshisekedi from power.

Kinshasa’s rhetoric against Kigali reached new heights, while Burundi accused Kigali of supporting RED-Tabara rebel group.

Regional tensions remained elevated. Amid sustained offensive by Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in eastern DR Congo (see DR Congo), Congolese President Tshisekedi 8 Dec compared President Kagame to Hitler and his “expansionist aims”, and around 19 Dec threatened to declare war should Rwanda “persist in its aggression”. Renewed RED-Tabara rebel attacks in Burundi ratcheted up bilateral tensions after months of improvement. Burundi’s President Ndayishimiye 29 Dec accused Rwanda of funding and training rebel group, which Kigali immediately denied (see Burundi).

In another important development. Election commission 12 Dec scheduled presidential and parliamentary polls for 15-16 July 2024; Kagame expected to run for fourth term in office.

23rd anniversary of Algiers Agreement with Ethiopia passed amid deteriorating bilateral relations.

12 Dec marked 23 years since Ethiopia and Eritrea concluded Algiers Agreement to establish peace and demarcate common border. U.S. and UK issued statements urging sides to honour their commitments under deal and emphasising respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and pursuit of regional peace and stability. Anniversary came amid deteriorating bilateral relations, however, fuelled by competing ambitions and unresolved grievances; Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed’s Oct comments on access to Red Sea port exacerbated mistrust. Rising tensions have increased prospect of slide toward war, though unlikely in near term given both countries’ weakened militaries and war-ravaged economies. Meanwhile, clashes 30 Dec erupted in UK capital London between supporters and opponents of Isaias’ govt, with supporters reportedly calling on Eritrean community to prepare for another war with Ethiopia; police intervened, said four officers were injured in violence.

Cost of living crisis remained centre stage; Al-Shabaab and cattle-related violence persisted.

Govt struggled with cost of living crisis, bribery allegations. Treasury Cabinet Secretary Njuguna Ndun’gu 6 Dec admitted govt has been unable to pay public servants for five months. During independence celebrations, President Ruto 12 Dec acknowledged cost of living crisis but said tough fiscal policies were necessary and helped stabilise economy. Opposition leader Raila Odinga 31 Dec warned of new wave of demonstrations if Finance Act of 2023 is not repealed. Meanwhile, allegations mid-month surfaced in local media that Odinga received $30mn from President Ruto to stop anti-govt protests.

Al-Shabaab and cattle-related attacks continued. Al-Shabaab 2 Dec attacked police station in Hagadera refugee camp, Garissa County, injuring one; 15 Dec detonated explosive device on govt vehicle travelling on Dabaab-Garissa road, killing four. Meanwhile, gunmen 5 Dec attacked herders in Kangeta settlement, Meru County, killing one; herders retaliated killing one. Local residents 9 Dec killed three suspected cattle rustlers in Isiolo County, and police next day killed two cattle raiders in Kapturo village, Baringo County. Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki 28 Dec announced extension of Operation Maliza Uhalifu, launched in early 2023 in Rift Valley, to other banditry-prone areas in Meru, Isiolo and Marsabit counties.

Nairobi withdrew troops from DR Congo, prepared for deployment to Haiti. Kenyan-led East African Community regional force 21 Dec completed withdrawal from eastern DR Congo as force’s mandate expired. Nairobi prepared for deployment of police officers to lead UN-backed multinational force in Haiti despite High Court temporarily blocking deployment: Kenyan delegation 5-7 Dec visited Haiti, and Kenyan police chief Japhet Koome 14 Dec received Haitian police chief in capital Nairobi.

Puntland made breakthrough to resolve electoral dispute, reducing prospect of conflict; govt took steps to resume operations against Al-Shabaab.

Puntland president announced return to clan-based voting system for parliament. Puntland President Said Deni 6 Dec abandoned plan to move from clan-based system to universal suffrage, saying parliamentary elections would be held 8 Jan with clan representatives selecting MPs, who in turn would choose state’s next president; decision significantly reduced prospect of conflict between state govt and opposition-aligned forces, but challenges remained. Puntland’s parliament 7 Dec announced plans to form committee in charge of electing state’s next president and voted to extend its own mandate for another year. Puntland’s constitutional court 10 Dec annulled one-year extension following request by govt. Deni 28 Dec announced re-election bid.

Military operations against Al-Shabaab set to resume as rainy season ended. Govt forces took positions in preparation for resumption of offensive as rainy season concluded mid Dec, and clashed with Al-Shabaab in some areas of Galmudug and Hirshabelle states (centre). Harardhere district of Mudug region saw most significant activity: govt claimed around 30 Al-Shabaab members killed 7 Dec in Baraag Gugurte, and 80 insurgents killed around 26 Dec near Caad town. In Hiraan region, govt-aligned clan militias 3 Dec clashed with Al-Shabaab militants trying to infiltrate area along Shabelle river, claimed 60 militants killed. Operations also continued in recently opened front in South West state. Notably, army 1-4 Dec cleared several villages on border between Bay and Bakool regions. Govt said U.S. airstrike 17 Dec killed senior Al-Shabaab leader Maalim Atman in group’s stronghold of Jilib (Middle Juba region, Jubaland state). Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab suicide bomber 3 Dec wounded five military recruits at Turkish-run training centre in capital Mogadishu.

In other important developments. AU mission (ATMIS) 17 Dec resumed drawdown including from president’s residence in Mogadishu. Meanwhile, Somalia continued to reach milestones on international stage, including UN Security Council 1 Dec lifting arms embargo imposed in 1992. President Mohamud and Somaliland President Bihi 28-29 Dec met in Djibouti, agreed to resume talks to resolve political tensions, after previous negotiations stalled in 2020.

Intercommunal fighting continued in Abyei region and spilled into Warrap state, tensions between Riek Machar’s forces and defected commander escalated in Unity state, and concerns about 2024 poll persisted.

Hostilities between rival Dinka in Abyei and Warrap state continued. Fighting between Ngok Dinka from disputed Abyei Administrative Area and Twic Dinka from Warrap state continued in Abyei. Notably, Twic 2 Dec set up checkpoints in Athony-Ayuok village, prompting clashes 2, 3 Dec that killed at least six. Armed men 31 Dec killed six, including Abyei deputy chief administrator, on Abyei-Aneet town road; Abyei authorities blamed Twic youth from Warrap state. Crisis contributed to breakdown of security situation in Warrap. Notably, Twic youth 3 Dec attacked state prison, freeing and arming 57 cattle guards, 35 of which reportedly joined militias. Two sections of Rek Dinka 8 Dec fought over ownership of cattle camp, killing five armed Dinka youth. Fighting in Atonj area 14 Dec killed at least eight, 17 Dec killed seven.

Tensions between Riek Machar’s forces and defected commander sparked fighting. Standoff between forces of Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) and Simon Maguek Gai (IO commander who defected to army in Oct) sparked sporadic fighting in Unity state. SPLA-IO late Nov left Leer town following clashes and by 2 Dec fighting had reached Guit county. Weakened SPLA-IO 14-15 Dec also withdrew from Bentiu town near Guit and moved to cantonment after army allegedly threatened force if they did not leave, which army denied; Panyijiar county now last SPLA-IO stronghold in Unity and likely target of Maguek Gai’s next military operation.

Concerns about election preparedness mounted. 70 local civil society organisations 1 Dec issued statement warning country is not ready for elections; UN Special Representative Nicholas Haysom 14 Dec reiterated concerns before UN Security Council. Meanwhile, President Kiir 12 Dec replaced Minister of Presidential Affairs Barnaba Marial Benjamin with new ally Joseph Bakosoro, an Equatorian Zande seen as possible running-mate in election to garner support in Equatorian region.

Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured Wad Madani city in first major offensive east, raising fears group could try and conquer entire country by force; RSF leader embarked on major diplomatic tour.

RSF seized Gezira state capital, triggering mass displacement. RSF 15 Dec launched offensive on El-Gezira state capital Wad Madani in east, sparking clashes with army and shattering relative stability of regional state. Paramilitary 18 Dec stormed Wad Madani after capturing army base, army next day announced withdrawal from city. Fighting displaced around 300,000 people, while UN humanitarian agency 15 Dec suspended field missions in state. RSF 20 Dec claimed capture of military base in Gezira’s al-Hasaheisa town. Paramilitary’s advance east marked new phase in war and signalled it could attempt to conquer Sudan by force.

RSF eyed capture of North Darfur capital El Fasher. Joint Force of Armed Groups, comprised of Juba Peace Agreement signatories, 2 Dec announced troop deployment to North Darfur in preparation for RSF attack on El Fasher, only Darfur state capital not under its control. Chairman of rebel group Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council Al-Hadi Idris 12 Dec warned RSF attack could “transform the ongoing war into a tribal conflict”. Army and RSF 16 Dec clashed in northern El Fasher and Abu Shouk displacement camp.

Fighting continued in capital Khartoum, RSF clashed with rebel group in South Kordofan. Clashes 14 Dec reignited around strategic sites of Khartoum North and persisted elsewhere in capital, killing dozens. In North Kordofan, clashes continued over state capital El Obeid. In South Kordofan state, RSF 5 Dec launched attack on Tukma village, sparking clashes with rebel group Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North.

In other important developments. After army official late Nov accused Chad and United Arab Emirates of supporting RSF, N’Djamena and Abu Dhabi expelled Sudanese diplomats, prompting tit-for-tat measures from Sudan. Regional bloc Intergovernmental Agency on Development (IGAD) 9 Dec held emergency summit in Djibouti; sides agreed to ceasefire and face-to-face meeting, but next day denied commitments were unconditional. RSF leader Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo late Dec embarked on major diplomatic tour, meeting with leaders of Uganda, Ethiopia and Djibouti in effort to improve RSF’s diplomatic standing.

Islamic State-affiliated rebels intensified violence and govt remained under pressure over human rights abuses.

Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) stepped up attacks on Ugandan soil. Two bombs 2 Dec exploded in suburbs of capital Kampala, injuring one. President Museveni next day blamed Islamic State-affiliated ADF and vowed to “intensify” army operations against group in neighbouring DR Congo. ADF 19 Dec launched attack in Kitehurizi village in Kamwenge district, killing ten civilians and forcing hundreds to flee; Museveni 20 Dec announced retaliatory airstrikes against group in DR Congo. ADF 25 Dec killed three civilians in another village of Kamwenge.

Controversy over human rights persisted, inflamed by army scandal. As political opposition 30 Nov ended month-long parliamentary boycott over human rights abuses, U.S. 4 Dec expanded visa restrictions on senior govt officials over human rights and democracy concerns. Govt 13 Dec ordered investigation into viral video purportedly showing soldiers torturing suspected thief in Lagot village, Kitgum district, and military court 15 Dec sentenced soldiers identified in video to one year in prison.

In other important developments. Military court 5 Dec remanded into custody 31 people, including seven soldiers, on charges related to alleged plot to overthrow Museveni between Feb 2022 and Oct 2023. Leader of Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”, 27 Dec said he travelled to Uganda to discuss developments in Sudan with Museveni; trip is Hemedti’s first confirmed appearance outside of Sudan since war between RSF and Sudanese army broke out in April.

Top court confirmed President Rajoelina’s re-election for third term as opposition insisted it will not recognise result.

High Constitutional Court 1 Dec validated re-election in November polls of President Rajoelina, who was sworn in for third term 16 Dec. Collective of 11 opposition candidates 1 Dec once again rejected election results and called for national protest movement, and 8 Dec announced creation of “crisis unit” aimed at coordinating nationwide action. Police 11 Dec detained prominent journalist Gascar Fenosoa and opposition politician Christian Tabera for allegedly inciting police mutiny during 4 Dec TV interview. Antananarivo court 13 Dec gave senior opposition party official Ny Riana Randriamasinoro two-year suspended sentence for participating in unauthorised demonstration before election. Rajoelina sworn in 16 Dec; ahead of inauguration ceremony, authorities banned protests in capital.

Ruling party won most parliamentary seats in controversial by-elections; conduct of election cycle stymied international re-engagement efforts.

Ruling party won majority of seats in contested recall vote. ZANU-PF 9 Dec won seven of nine by-elections for parliamentary seats which had been secured by main opposition party Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) candidates in Aug elections; by-elections were triggered by recall of CCC MPs by party’s self-proclaimed secretary-general Sengezo Tshabangu, who CCC leader Nelson Chamisa claims is working for ruling ZANU-PF party. ZANU-PF now holds 184 National Assembly seats, three short of two-thirds majority lost during Aug elections, with CCC claiming govt is using recalls to reclaim majority. Tensions likely to continue with another round of by-elections due 3 Feb as dozens of other CCC MPs, senators and local councillors have been recalled by Tshabangu. In lead-up to by-elections, High Court 7 Dec barred recalled CCC MPs from contesting votes, while police 3 Dec reportedly prevented opposition rallies in cities of Bulawayo and Masvingo.

Conduct of elections continued to isolate Zimbabwe internationally. Govt’s international re-engagement drive, which seeks to receive debt and sanctions relief, faltered amid widespread criticism of handling of votes. Notably, U.S. 4 Dec announced additional sanctions including visa restrictions on individuals responsible for “undermining democracy”.

Civilians remained caught in crossfire between jihadists and govt forces, and Ouagadougou continued to draw closer to other military govts in Sahel region.

Levels of violence remained elevated, with heavy toll on civilians. Gunmen wearing military uniform 8 Dec allegedly killed over 30 civilians in Dongounani village, Hauts-Bassins region; local sources blamed attack on members of armed forces or army auxiliaries (VDPs). Suspected jihadist militants 14 Dec reportedly killed dozens of people in Balavé commune, Boucle du Mouhoun region. Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) 24 Dec attacked gendarmerie post in Gorgadji town, Sahel region; security forces claimed repelling attack with a dozen assailants killed. Unidentified jihadist militants 30 Dec attacked Nouna military base (Boucle du Mouhoun), killing unknown number of soldiers and civilians.

Ouagadougou pulled out of G5 Sahel, announced Sahelian confederation. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger 1 Dec announced intention to form three-state confederation and to establish stabilisation fund, investment bank and eventually common currency. Burkina Faso and Niger 2 Dec announced withdrawal from regional anti-jihadist alliance G5 Sahel, following in Mali’s footsteps; two remaining members Mauritania and Chad 6 Dec acknowledged departure of three founding members, which paves the way for alliance’s dissolution. Meanwhile, West African regional bloc ECOWAS 10 Dec lifted travel restrictions on key transition officials.

Silencing of dissent continued. Unidentified individuals 1 Dec abducted rights defender Daouda Diallo, who was targeted in Nov by govt’s conscription order forcing dozen people into army including journalists, civil society activists and opposition party members; administrative tribunal of Ouagadougou 6 Dec deemed conscription order illegal. Authorities 2 Dec suspended all distribution methods of French newspaper Le Monde, citing “biased article” about large-scale jihadist attack on Djibo town (Sahel region) in late Nov. Unidentified individuals 24 Dec abducted another critic of transitional authorities, former FM Ablassé Ouédraogo.

In other important developments. Relations with France continued to worsen as authorities 1 Dec arrested four French citizens in capital Ouagadougou on suspicion of espionage, saying they were intelligence agents; France denied accusations. Transitional President Capt. Traoré 17 Dec reshuffled cabinet, notably replacing education and mine ministers. Russia 28 Dec reopened embassy in Ouagadougou after 31-year gap.

Main opposition party’s elective congress highlighted internal divisions and rekindled animosity with ruling party.

Main opposition party Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) prepared to hold extraordinary congress on 16 Dec to elect successor to long-time party leader, Henri Konan Bédié, who died in Aug. In last-minute ruling, Abidjan court of first instance 15 Dec ordered suspension of congress following urgent request from two senior party members, who alleged lack of transparency and irregularities in process. Controversy highlighted internal divisions between party’s old guard and younger reformist wing, and rekindled animosity between PDCI and ruling party Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP). PDCI interim president Alphonse Cowppli-Bony Kwassy 16 Dec denounced “practices from another era that undermine democracy and freedoms”, seemingly accusing RHDP of orchestrating suspension of congress. Plaintiffs 21 Dec withdrew complaint, and congress was held 22 Dec in capital Yamoussoukro. Former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam won bid with 96,48 % of votes, defeating businessman and diplomat Jean-Marc Yacé.

In alleged attempt to tighten grip on power following major jailbreak in Nov, transitional authorities muzzled critical press and continued anti-corruption campaign targeting former state officials.

Manhunt continued after high-profile prison escape. Former minister of presidential security, Col. Claude Pivi, who escaped from prison in Nov alongside former President Moussa Dadis Camara and several collaborators, remained at large; all escapees had been on trial for alleged involvement in Conakry stadium massacre of 28 September 2009.

Authorities clamped down on critical media. Guinea’s media regulator, High Authority for Communication, 6 and 9 Dec ordered suspension of Djoma TV Channel, owned by close aide of deposed President Condé, and two other radio and television stations critical of military rule, citing unspecified “national security reasons”. In response, Guinean press union 7 Dec called for boycott of govt-sponsored events, while NGO Reporters Without Borders 14 Dec denounced “attacks on press freedom” and urged authorities to remove restrictions on private media.

Govt continued to harness legal system to silence opponents. Anti-corruption court 11 Dec summoned Amadou Damaro Camara and Mohamed Diané, former president of National Assembly and former defence minister under Condé, respectively, for hearings in corruption cases; Diané failed to appear and was ordered to come before court in Jan. Authorities have used anti-corruption campaign both to build popular support and silence potential opponents and critics.

Fighting broke out between security forces aligned with rival political factions; President Embaló described incident as attempted coup.

Battle overnight 30 Nov-1 Dec erupted between National Guard and special forces in Bissau, leaving two dead. Tensions started to rise after Economy and Finance Minister Souleiman Seidi and Treasury Secretary Antonio Monteiro were detained 30 Nov over corruption allegations prompting National Guard, which reports to Interior Ministry aligned with Seidi’s African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), to free pair from police custody in capital Bissau. Fighting 1 Dec subsided by noon after army captured Seidi and Monteiro, as well as National Guard commander. President Embaló immediately called incident “attempted coup” and 4 Dec dissolved PAIGC-dominated parliament, requesting fresh elections without setting date. PAIGC leader and parliamentary speaker Domingos Simões Pereira same day labelled move unconstitutional, vowed to continue holding parliamentary sessions, and 8 Dec reported deputies were being blocked from accessing parliament. Security forces 13 Dec used tear gas to disperse group of PAIGC deputies and supporters attempting to enter parliament. Embaló 20 Dec sacked PM Geraldo Martins, later appointed new govt.

As UN mission completed troops drawdown, jihadist and rebel blockades in north increased hardship facing civilians, and jihadist attacks targeted army positions in various regions.

Authorities faced challenges as they took steps to cement control of Kidal region. Govt late Nov-early Dec sent hundreds of soldiers and police to help enforce order in Kidal region after recently capturing regional capital from coalition of 2015 Algiers Accord signatory armed groups Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP) – which includes Coordination of Azawad Movements separatists. New Kidal governor Gen. El Hadj Ag Gamo – tutelary figure of pro-govt signatory armed group, Imghad Tuareg Self-Defence Group and Allies – took office 13 Dec. Troops 20 Dec moved into rural town of Aguelhok and regained control of only vacated UN mission (MINUSMA) camp that had come under CSP control. In leaked document dated 8 Dec, CSP announced blockade on roads leading to major northern towns of Menaka, Kidal, Gao, Timbuktu and Taoudeni in effort to step up pressure on govt forces. Meanwhile, MINUSMA completed drawdown of troops with handover of Sévaré base (Mopti region) and Timbuktu camp on 8 and 28 Dec, respectively.

Jihadist violence continued in north and centre. Jihadist groups 3 Dec launched spate of attacks mainly on military targets in northern regions. Notably, Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel) attacks in Ménaka town (Ménaka region) and Labbezanga army base (Gao region) left at least 33 soldiers and three civilians dead; 14 militants also killed, including prominent leader Adamou Diallo. Suspected al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) same day attacked other military posts including Tessalit (Kidal region). JNIM 11 Dec reinstated blockade on Timbuktu town after easing it in Nov following negotiations with local elites. In Ségou region in centre, suspected JNIM militants 12 Dec killed at least 30 soldiers, allied militiamen and civilians in Farabougou village and nearby military camp.

In other important developments. West African regional bloc ECOWAS 10 Dec lifted travel restrictions on key transition officials and refrained from denouncing electoral delays. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger 1 Dec announced forming three-state confederation and establishing stabilisation fund, investment bank and eventually common currency.

West African regional bloc recognised military govt and set up committee to negotiate return to civilian rule; Niamey continued to expand ties with military-led neighbours and move away from erstwhile partners.

West African leaders recognised junta, set conditions for sanctions relief. Regional bloc ECOWAS Court of Justice 7 Dec dismissed junta’s request to lift sanctions imposed by ECOWAS after July coup, and 15 Dec ordered “immediate” release of deposed President Bazoum. At ECOWAS summit in Nigeria, West African leaders 10 Dec dropped demand for coup reversal, set up committee of three heads of state to negotiate with junta for “short transition” period to constitutional order, saying sanctions relief would depend on outcome of discussions.

Niger announced federation with Burkina Faso, Mali, withdrew from G5 Sahel. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger 1 Dec announced intention to form three-state confederation and to establish stabilisation fund, investment bank and eventually common currency. Burkina Faso and Niger 2 Dec announced withdrawal from G5 Sahel anti-jihadist alliance, following in Mali’s footsteps; two remaining members Mauritania and Chad 6 Dec acknowledged departure of three founding countries, which paves the way for alliance’s dissolution. Meanwhile, junta 4 Dec ended two EU defence and security partnerships, and next day joined Mali in denouncing tax cooperation treaty with France. Transitional President Gen. Tchiani 4 Dec received Russian delegation and signed treaties strengthening bilateral military cooperation. Following visit to Niamey, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee 13 Dec said U.S. was ready to resume cooperation with Niger. Last French soldiers deployed in Niger 22 Dec left country following end of bilateral military cooperation.

Insecurity persisted in Tillabery region (south west). Suspected al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims 3 Dec killed two civilians in Tondia village, Gotheye department. Armed forces 27 Nov-3 Dec conducted security operations in Abala and Banibangou areas, killing two suspected Islamic State Sahel Province militants and arresting 19. Unidentified jihadist militants 29 Dec attacked Amara and Loutchi villages, Téra department, reportedly killing 11 civilians.

Armed groups and govt forces killed 300 civilians as violence remained widespread in North West and North Central zones; Supreme Court ruled separatist leader must be tried for terrorism.

Army mistakenly launched drone strike on civilians in North West Zone. During routine security operation in Kaduna state, army 3 Dec mistook villagers celebrating Muslim festival in Tudun Biri village for armed group members, and struck them with two drones, killing at least 85 people. After some initial confusion, army 4 Dec confirmed striking civilians by mistake, and President Tinubu 5 Dec ordered investigation. UN Human Rights Office 6 Dec urged authorities to “take all feasible steps” to protect civilians as they combat various armed groups in northern states.

Gunmen went on killing spree in North Central Zone. Armed groups 24-25 Dec rampaged through about 25 farming villages of Bokkos and Barkin Ladi areas in Plateau State, killing at least 198 people, and displacing more than 10,000. No group claimed responsibility, but attacks occurred in area long plagued by herder-farmer violence. Kidnappings for ransom continued to surge in Federal Capital Territory, with victims abducted not only in peripheral settlements but also inside city: at least 73 residents abducted 9-29 Dec in Bwari and Kuje areas, as well as villages in neighbouring Niger state.

Supreme Court reinstated terrorism charges against Biafra separatist leader. Supreme Court 15 Dec ruled leader of separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu, must be tried for terrorism although his extradition from Kenya in 2021 was illegal; decision, which reversed Appeal Court’s October 2022 ruling, may prompt hardline IPOB faction to escalate violence. Meanwhile, unidentified gunmen 10 Dec killed seven people, including members of local vigilante group, in attack on nightclub in Oba town, Idemili area of Anambra state.

Cost-of-living crisis deepened as inflation rose to 18-year high. World Bank 13 Dec said national currency (naira) has lost 41% of its value against dollar on official currency market since May and 30% on parallel market, urged govt to “take additional measures” for economy. National Bureau of Statistics 15 Dec said consumer inflation rose to 28.20% in Nov from 27.33% in Oct.

Fallout from alleged coup attempt continued to loom large, with former president named as suspect.

Govt 4 Dec announced 43 new arrests, the vast majority of them military personnel, in connection with 26 Nov attack on military barracks and other locations in capital Freetown, which authorities called “attempted coup”. Authorities 9 Dec said former President Ernest Bai Koroma had been confined to his home and summoned for questioning as part of police investigation into case. Police chief 12 Dec confirmed Koroma was “suspect” in organisation of late-Nov events. Authorities 20 Dec lifted nationwide curfew imposed following late-Nov incidents. Meanwhile, leaders of West African regional bloc ECOWAS 10 Dec condemned attempted coup and ordered deployment of stabilisation mission to Sierra Leone; ECOWAS delegation 23 Dec visited country to prepare ground for deployment.

Hostilities in Amhara and Oromia regions continued unabated; Tigray region faced prospect of large-scale famine.

Amhara rebellion persisted amid human rights abuses. Clashes between federal forces and Amhara nationalist militia known as Fano continued, with govt stepping up airstrikes. Notably, Ethiopian Air Force early Dec conducted drone strikes in North Wollo and North Shewa zones, killing fifteen; drone attacks in South Wollo Zone 10 Dec killed around 40. Civilians suspected of Fano ties faced extrajudicial killings; notably, BBC 12 Dec reported that Ethiopian soldiers killed around 30 people allegedly providing Fano with resources. Rebels, meanwhile, targeted local officials, notably claiming 7 Dec assassination of ruling party head in Sayint Woreda (South Wollo).

Violence in Oromia intensified. Hostilities escalated in Oromia region following collapse of negotiations between govt and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Nov. Notably, govt-insurgent clashes erupted in Kombolcha district late Dec, with drone strike 25 Dec killing eight. Meanwhile, Oromo-Amhara tensions triggered more attacks on civilians. Notably, suspected Fano militants 12 Dec attacked civilians in Horo Guduru Wollega Zone, killing at least thirteen; Oromo militants, possibly OLA, 24 Nov-4 Dec attacked Orthodox Christians and mostly Amhara civilians in Arsi Zone, killing around 40.

Tigray truce held despite unresolved issues, threat of famine loomed. African Union’s monitoring team, established to oversee implementation of Tigray peace process, 1 Dec met with federal and Tigray leaders in capital Addis Ababa; sides extended team’s mandate until Dec 2024 and committed to talks within two months to address outstanding issues, including demobilisation of Tigray combatants, disputed territories and Eritrean troop presence. Meanwhile, interim administration 29 Dec appealed to federal govt and international partners, warning that over 90% of Tigray’s population are on brink of starvation due to drought, exacerbated by war’s destruction of agricultural systems.

In other important developments. Authorities 12 Dec arrested State Minister of Peace and former ally of PM Abiy, Taye Dendea, who days before criticised govt’s failure to end conflicts and tackle corruption. Latest round of talks on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam failed (see Nile Waters). Ethiopia-Eritrea relations remained strained (see Eritrea).

Tensions persisted between govt and Dhulbahante clan militias in Sool region, while new Dhulbahante authorities insisted on becoming federal member state of Somalia.

Situation remained precarious in Sool region despite lull in fighting. Govt and Dhulbahante clan militia in Dec continued to reinforce positions near frontline, leading to concerns of resumption in fighting. Risk of further skirmishes between Isaaq (Somaliland’s largest clan) and Dhulbahante militias around Buhoodle town also remained high. Meanwhile, govt 4 Dec and 8 Dec claimed arresting spies working for Somali, Dhulbahante and Puntland authorities.

Dhulbahante administration continued to assert independence. SSC-Khatumo state (new self-declared administration for Dhulbahante community) 23 Dec rejected participation in Puntland elections in Jan and insisted on being autonomous Somalia state.

Somaliland and Somalia agreed to resume dialogue. President Bihi and Somalia President Mohamud 28-29 Dec met in Djibouti, agreed to resume dialogue to resolve political issues, after previous talks stalled in 2020; sides also agreed to cooperate on security and fight against organised crime. Bihi 31 Dec also travelled to Ethiopia for talks with PM Abiy Ahmed.

Insurgents launched deadly attacks on security forces and continued move southward in northern Cabo Delgado province, while partial re-run of municipal elections kept political tensions high.

Islamic State launched deadly attacks on security forces, continued to move south. Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) combatants 7 Dec attacked military positions near Manhiça, Muidumbe district, killing five soldiers and looting food and weaponry in deadliest attack on security forces since Sept; ISMP 26-28 Dec killed unconfirmed number of soldiers in Pangane and Mucojo-Sede areas of Macomia district, displacing hundreds of civilians. Group of militants continued to move toward Cabo Delgado’s southern districts of Meluco and Quissanga in apparent attempt to avoid Rwandan and Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) patrols in Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia and Muidumbe districts; at least 50 armed insurgents 11 Dec passed through village in Quissanga without engaging local community. President of Islamic Council of Mozambique late Nov announced creation of international commission due to begin work in Jan to promote talks between govt and insurgents in Cabo Delgado.

Political fallout from contested municipal elections continued. Preliminary results gave ruling FRELIMO party winner of by-elections held 10 Dec in four municipalities where Constitutional Court had ordered new vote (either for whole municipality, or only for number of polling stations) due to widespread irregularities in October local elections. In some places, notably in Nacala, where main opposition party RENAMO boycotted vote, turnout was below 30%. Heavy police presence and clashes with opposition supporters reported near most polling stations on voting day, and RENAMO alleged police attacked party supporters in run-up to vote including raiding party offices in capital of Nampula province 5 Dec. Following elections, RENAMO 11 and 16 Dec marched in capital Maputo and police 12 Dec killed civilian bystander during opposition protest in Marromeu town, Sofala province. Constitutional Court 26 Dec said process had “deficient organisation, administration and management” but 30 Dec confirmed FRELIMO had won repeated votes.

Court cleared opposition leader Ousmane Sonko to run in February presidential election, but his candidacy continued to face obstacles.

Dakar court of first instance 14 Dec reinstated Sonko on electoral register, clearing him to run for president in February. Sonko’s lawyers same day called on govt to issue Sonko with sponsorship forms needed for candidacy registration ahead of 26 Dec deadline. Sonko’s representatives 18-20 Dec claimed govt was refusing to follow court order and reinstate Sonko on electoral roll, said security forces had denied them access to electoral commission headquarters to collect sponsorship forms. Govt in following days reportedly challenged court decision to reinstate Sonko on electoral roll before Supreme Court. Sonko’s lawyers 26 Dec said they had submitted Sonko’s presidential candidacy to Constitutional Council despite lack of required documents. “Sonko President 2024” coalition 31 Dec nominated Sonko as presidential candidate in online ceremony after authorities banned nomination meeting initially scheduled for 30 Dec in Dakar, citing risks to public order.

Cotonou continued to strengthen ties with Western partners as govt forces combat jihadist violence in northern departments.

Sporadic jihadist violence against military and civilian targets persisted. Troops 12 Dec hit explosive device likely planted by al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) in Karimama commune, Alibori department, leaving two soldiers dead. Meanwhile, 223 of 250 Beninese troops deployed in Mali as part of UN mission (MINUSMA) 11 Dec returned home as peacekeeping force pulled out; soldiers will reportedly be deployed to Benin’s northern border to help guard against jihadist incursions.

Govt discussed partnership with Western partners amid jihadist threat. Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Fructueux Gbaguidi, received French and Belgian counterparts to discuss deepening military cooperation. France Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Thierry Burkhard, travelled to Benin 8-9 Dec, and Belgium Chief of Defence Staff, Adm. Michel Hofman, followed suit 13-14 Dec. Military cooperation with former colonial power remains highly unpopular, however, and Burkhard’s visit gave wind to rumours on social media of French military base in Benin, which both generals denied in joint press conference.

Latest round of talks on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) failed to produce agreement.

Latest round of trilateral talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on GERD 19 Dec ended without agreement. Cairo 19 Dec issued statement saying “meeting was unsuccessful due to Ethiopia’s persistent refusal … to accept any of the technical or legal compromise solutions that would safeguard the interests of all three countries”; Addis Ababa same day said it sought “amicable agreement” but accused Egypt of maintaining “colonial era mentality” and erecting “roadblocks against efforts toward convergence”.

North Korea conducted third test of solid-fuelled inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) and kicked off annual ruling party review, while U.S. and South Korea held nuclear consultations.

Pyongyang conducted operational exercise of solid-fuel ICBM. North Korea 18 Dec conducted its third test of solid-fuelled ICBM, marking its fifth ICBM test of 2023; new ICBM HS-18 forms third prong of North Korea’s current ICBM armoury. Latest test was described as “launching drill of an ICBM unit”, presumably intended to imply new ICBM is operational. State media described launch as being conducted with due regard for other states in region, as missile flew for more than 70 minutes on very lofted trajectory without crossing Japanese territory.

North Korea held annual ruling party performance review. Start of ruling Korean Workers’ Party’s annual review meeting was reported by state media on 27 Dec; forum, held in capital Pyongyang, serves as review of party performance during 2023, gauging implementation of goals set down in country’s five-year plan; leader Kim Jong Un called 2023 “year of great transformation” in fields ranging from military development to construction and warned “war can break out at any time” on peninsula. Results will give clearer indication of regime’s foreign policy priorities and stance for 2024.

U.S. submarine made port visit to South Korea after second nuclear talking shop. U.S. and South Korea 15 Dec held second Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting in U.S. capital Washington; NCG, part of Washington Declaration agreed in April 2023, aims to give South Korea more voice in deciding alliance nuclear strategy and, accordingly, to reduce domestic pressure for Seoul to pursue an independent nuclear deterrent capability. Following meeting, U.S. nuclear-powered submarine USS Missouri 17 Dec made port visit to Busan in South Korea.

In another important development. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and U.S. late Nov both raised concerns that North Korea had begun to bring experimental light-water nuclear reactor – type of reactor that Pyongyang has no experience in operating – online at its Yongbyon nuclear research facility.

Cross-strait tensions heightened ahead of Taiwan’s tight January election as China maintained military activity and described reunification as an “inevitability”.

China stepped up stern rhetoric in final days before Taiwan’s high-stakes election. Competition ahead of 13 Jan presidential and legislative polls remained fierce, with polls during Dec indicating that support for incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and opposition Kuomintang (KMT) remain within five percentage points, underscoring chance DPP may secure unprecedented third term. Amid electoral preparation, Taiwan officials warned of China’s potential influence through disinformation, including narratives casting doubts on U.S. credibility as partner and competency of DPP. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office 30 Dec condemned DPP candidate William Lai’s remarks at recent debate, calling him “the instigator of a potential dangerous war in the Taiwan Strait”. In New Year’s address, China’s leader Xi Jinping 31 Dec described “reunification” with Taiwan as “historical inevitability”. If DPP wins vote, China will likely opt for show of force, stepping up its military activities in strait as well as economic and other forms of coercion in bid to deter new DPP govt from crossing its red line, namely declaration of formal independence; such actions heighten risk of misjudgement or miscalculation. Alternatively, if KMT or smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) wins, cross-strait tensions might ease, at least temporarily, and prospects for cross-strait dialogue could improve.

Chinese military maintained pressure on island ahead of vote. As of 31 Dec, Taiwan spotted 313 Chinese military aircraft around island during Dec, of which at least 92 crossed unofficial “median line” or were detected in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone; Taiwan sighted 172 Chinese navy vessels in surrounding waters. Notably, China’s Shandong aircraft carrier group 11 Dec sailed through Taiwan Strait.

U.S. moved toward deepening military support for Taiwan. U.S. Senate 7 Dec passed 2024 National Defense Authorisation Act, which calls for military cooperation with Taiwan, including comprehensive training, consultation, and institutional capacity-building plans for Taiwan’s military, as well as military cybersecurity cooperation, and authorises information sharing between U.S. and Taiwan militaries.

Taliban continued crackdown on Islamic State’s local branch as armed opposition groups raised political profile abroad, while tensions persisted between Taliban and Pakistan.

Anti-Taliban groups continued armed and political activities. Taliban security forces 8 Dec targeted Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) cell in Herat province (west) and neighbouring Nimroz province (south west). While attacks by ISKP have reduced in recent months, Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) has emerged as one of most active armed opposition groups inside Afghanistan: group 24 Nov claimed attack against Taliban in Bagram district of Parwan province (north east). Although no attacks were attributed to National Resistance Front (NRF), group’s leader participated in conference organised in Russian capital Moscow, marking first time Russia has invited anti-Taliban groups to publicly held conference; NRF also held event in Austrian capital Vienna in early Dec, where it presented its roadmap for new Afghanistan, after group’s spokesman 28 Nov attended Herat Security Dialogue in Tajikistan capital Dushanbe. Increased international activity by armed opposition groups suggest level of international frustration with de facto authorities’ refusal to meet external demands.

Relations with Pakistan continued to exhibit strains. Militants 12 Dec conducted major attack in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, killing 23 soldiers (see Pakistan); hours later, Pakistani FM Jalil Abbas Jilani delivered strong demarche to Afghan chargé d’affaires, calling for Kabul to take verifiable action against perpetrators.

In other important developments. Taliban’s FM Amir Khan Muttaqi 16 Dec met with Turkmenistan FM Rasit Meredow at Torghundi border crossing of Herat province, marking first such high-level interaction between Taliban and Turkmenistan. U.S. Department of Treasury 8 Dec imposed sanctions on two Taliban officials, Fariduddin Mahmoud and Muhammad Khalid Hanafi, allegedly for their role in restrictions on women; Taliban criticised move, pointing to U.S.’ opposition to Security Council resolutions on Gaza as evidence of country’s duplicitous approach to human rights.

Amid govt crackdown on opposition, country braced for potentially chaotic, violent and disputed general election in January 2024.

Govt continued crackdown on opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Ruling Awami League-controlled courts convicted at least 1,600 BNP leaders and activists since 1 Aug, while authorities reportedly arrested up to 25,000 BNP members since late Oct, with most leaders in prison and many members in hiding. Having formally boycotted 7 Jan general election by refraining from registering any candidates before 30 Nov deadline, BNP continued campaign of demonstrations, blockades and “hartals”: party members 10 Dec formed human chains countrywide to draw attention to human rights situation. BNP 16 Dec organised its largest rally since late Oct crackdown, with tens (possibly hundreds) of thousands demonstrating in capital Dhaka. BNP reportedly sought to assemble political parties not participating in vote into single platform. In attempt to lend credibility to vote, ruling Awami League struck series of seat-sharing deals to give impression of opposition participation. While Awami League appeared set to win with large majority, it remained unclear whether it can successfully project image of credible election amid risks of voting descending into chaotic violence between rival supporters within ruling party or so-called opposition parties, as well as clashes involving BNP; if voter turnout proves low, officials could resort to rigging ballots.

Violence and insecurity continued in Rohingya refugee camps. Security forces 15 Dec broke up Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) meeting in camps, arresting four following shootout. Separate attacks 21 Dec killed three refugees – at least one linked to rival group Rohingya Solidarity Organisation. Dire conditions in camps prompted growing numbers of refugees to flee to Indonesia’s Aceh province, bringing total to 1,500 since mid Nov: Indonesian authorities signalled patience was wearing thin, while some locals refused to provide assistance and demanded deportation of refugees.

Chittagong Hill Tracts remained restive. Dialogue between govt and Kuki-Chin National Front was postponed until 2024. Armed group formed by Bengali settlers 11 Dec reportedly killed four activists from armed organisation United People’s Democratic Front in Khagrachari; three others were abducted in attack.

Deadly militant attack killed five soldiers in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) despite onset of winter, while Supreme Court in landmark ruling upheld govt’s decision to scrap J&K’s special status.

Militants continued attacks, defying harsh winter conditions. Militants 21 Dec ambushed two army vehicles in Jammu’s Rajouri district, killing five soldiers and injuring two. Army subsequently launched security operation; three of eight civilians apprehended for interrogation died due to injuries next day, with some family members alleging torture. Earlier, security forces 6 Dec arrested two alleged militants in Rajouri district, recovering arms. Militants 9 Dec shot and injured police officer in Srinagar; The Resistance Force claimed responsibility. Security forces 17 Dec claimed to have arrested cell of three militants targeting police officers in Srinagar.

Supreme Court upheld govt’s abrogation of Article 370. Five-judge Supreme Court bench headed by Chief Justice of India 11 Dec upheld govt’s decision in 2019 to revoke Article 370 of constitution, which offered J&K semi-autonomous status; court also ordered Election Commission to organise J&K regional polls – last of which were held in 2014 – before 30 Sept 2024 and directed govt to restore J&K’s statehood. In response, former chief minister Omar Abdullah vowed “the struggle will continue”, national newspaper The Hindu said ruling “legitimises subversion of federal principles”, while Pakistan denounced ruling, saying “international law doesn’t recognise India’s unilateral and illegal actions” and decision has “no legal value”. Police same day reportedly placed political leaders in Kashmir in detention.

Central govt passed two controversial bills. Parliament 6-11 Dec adopted The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation (Amendment) Bill, allowing for increase in number of constituencies and nominations by New Delhi, and The Jammu & Kashmir Reservation (Amendment) Bill, declaring two communities – Hindu community of Kashmiri Pandits and hill tribe of Pahadis – eligible for affirmative action; critics of legislation accused govt of attempting to manipulate political landscape to its advantage ahead of 2024 national elections by wooing Pandits and Pahadi community.

In deadliest attack of 2023, jihadist militants killed almost two dozen soldiers in north west; authorities prepared for 8 February general election as opposition leaders battled legal challenges.

Militants staged deadliest assault of 2023. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, militants 12 Dec rammed explosive-laden vehicle into gate of military compound in Dera Ismail Khan district and conducted multiple suicide bombings, collapsing building and killing at least 23 soldiers and wounding over 30 – marking deadliest attack of year; Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan militant outfit claimed responsibility. Militant attack on military-police checkpoint in Khyber district 15 Dec killed two paramilitary personnel and three police officers.

Relations with Afghanistan continued to exhibit strains. Islamabad attributed spike in militant attacks to Afghan Taliban authorities’ refusal to take action against Pakistani Taliban and its affiliates. Notably, hours after 12 Dec attack, FM Jalil Abbas Jilani delivered strong demarche to Afghan chargé d’affaires, calling for Kabul to take verifiable action against perpetrators; Taliban dismissed claims of Afghan link to attack as “baseless”. Meanwhile, Pakistan continued to deport undocumented Afghans to Afghanistan, with more than 500,000 forcibly sent across border since Oct.

Political tensions continued to mount ahead of Feb elections. Supreme Court 15 Dec suspended Lahore High Court’s ruling two days earlier in favour of petition of former PM Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) against deployment of bureaucrats (as opposed to judicial officers) to oversee elections on 8 Feb. Election Commission same day issued election schedule, ruling out any further delays in election process. Continuing to criticise appointment of bureaucrats as election supervisors, PTI still vowed to contest polls; Khan’s ability to stand for public office, however, rests on whether courts will overturn his corruption conviction. Khan’s legal hurdles mounted further as special court 12 Dec indicted him in relation to case of misusing diplomatic cables. Khan’s main political opponent, former PM Nawaz Sharif, benefitted from two Islamabad High Court rulings 29 Nov and 12 Dec overturning corruption cases; to stand in election, Sharif requires Supreme Court to overturn life ban on holding office, issued in 2017.

Govt unlocked new tranches of international financial assistance in bid to raise revenue, while inter-ethnic reconciliation generated debate and allegations of abuse dogged police leadership.

Govt secured international financial support. International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Executive Board 12 Dec announced completion of first review of Extended Fund Facility, opening way for cash infusion of $337mn; IMF judged govt’s performance “satisfactory” for raising revenue and rebuilding reserves, while noting challenges ahead, including need to further raise revenue, eradicate corruption and enhance governance. Meanwhile, Asian Development Bank 8 Dec announced it had approved $200mn concessional loan to help stabilise financial sector and World Bank 20 Dec announced release of $250mn in budget support. Parliament 13 Dec approved govt’s 2024 budget featuring plans for ambitious increase in revenue.

Inter-ethnic reconciliation initiatives provoked controversy. Sangha for Better Sri Lanka, comprising half a dozen Buddhist monks, and members of diaspora-based Global Tamil Forum (GTF) 7-15 Dec jointly conducted series of meetings with wide range of religious, political, civil society leaders and diplomats in effort to launch “national conversation” based on “Himalaya Declaration” agreed by pair in April 2023; GTF described initiative as attempt to create country based on “pluralistic character”, “equal citizenship” and devolution of power to provinces. Domestic and diaspora Tamil groups attacked initiative for falling short of long-standing Tamil demands and for supporting govt’s reconciliation agenda, including controversial truth and reconciliation commission due for 2024 launch. In eastern district Batticaloa, Buddhist monk-provocateur Ampitiye Sumanarathana physically blocked two Tamil parliamentarians from joining Tamil cattle herders demanding return of land forcibly seized by Sinhala farmers.

Controversy swirled around leadership of Sri Lanka police. Supreme Court 14 Dec ruled that acting Inspector General of Police (IGP), Deshabandu Tenakoon, and three other police officials had illegally detained and tortured man in 2011. Police arrested more than 15,000 people in island-wide anti-drug blitz, amid allegations of excessive force and lack of due process; campaign was personally directed by Tenakoon and public security minister Tiran Alles, who 16 Dec announced police had been authorised to use “maximum force” against suspected criminals.

China brokered limited truce between military and ethnic armed group in Shan State before talks faltered, while fierce fighting persisted in several areas between regime and other ethnic armed groups.

Armed groups expanded control over northern Shan State. Following launch of “Operation 1027”, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – member of Three Brotherhood Alliance – early Dec continued to expand control over northern Shan State by capturing several major bases and outposts, including around Laukkaing town where group established stranglehold; MNDAA 29 Nov said 184 regime soldiers surrendered in area. Elsewhere in Shan State, Three Brotherhood member Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) continued to press regime along much of Mandalay-Muse highway; clashes 1 Dec took place near Kyaukme town and group 6 Dec seized regime outpost in Monglon town. TNLA 15 Dec captured Namhsan town despite intensive regime airstrikes. Offering respite after six weeks of hostilities, China 11 Dec brokered limited ceasefire between regime and MNDAA in meeting in China, as sides reportedly agreed to halt fighting until end of Dec and create safe corridor for civilians and officials to leave Laukkaing; however, limited fighting continued and then escalated after further talks on 23 Dec broke down.

In Rakhine State, Arakan Army (AA) struggled against well-prepared regime. AA clashed with regime forces in several parts of Rakhine State during Dec, as regime maintained blockade on major roads and waterways that led to skyrocketing food, fuel and medicine prices. In Chin State, AA early Dec captured two large bases on Kaladan River in Paletwa Township, after weeks of heavy fighting.

Hostilities persisted in Kayah and Kayin states and Bago Region. In Kayah State, regime and resistance forces remained locked in month-long battle for state capital Loikaw; Karenni Nationalities Defence Force claimed control of more than half of town, but regime airstrikes destroyed hundreds of homes. Regime artillery fire 9 Dec scorched town’s main market. In Kayin State, Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) struggled to capture Kawkareik town on Yangon-Myawaddy highway. In Bago region, KNLA and allied PDF forces 2 Dec captured most of Mone town before subsequently retreating under heavy regime airstrikes.

Jihadist bombing killed four Christians in Marawi city in south, while hostilities persisted between military and Communists despite dialogue deal struck in Nov.

Jihadist bombing killed four in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Members affiliated with remnants of Maute Group – also known as Dawlah Islamiyah – 3 Dec bombed church service at Mindanao State University in Marawi city, killing four and injuring over forty individuals. In response, military conducted several air and ground offensives in Maguindanao province and adjacent areas of Cotabato province, particularly Ligawasan marsh area, killing at least nine members of Dawlah Islamiyah 7-9 Dec. Dawlah Islamiyah 8 Dec launched ambush on Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) near Ligawasan marsh on boundary of Maguindanao del Sur and Cotabato provinces, reportedly killing several MILF members. Clashes 18 Dec erupted between armed men associated with MILF’s 105 Base Command in Mamasapano town over existing feud, lasting for several days until ceasefire was brokered.

Clashes persisted between Communist rebels and military. Despite agreement struck in Nov in Norwegian capital Oslo between main Communist umbrella group and govt to renew talks after six-year hiatus, hostilities on ground continued. Clashes between govt forces and Communists in Luzon Island (Quezon and Batangas) in north and Visayas Islands (Negros and Samar) in centre killed at least 25 combatants and injured three civilians.

Militant attacks in deep south subsided as part of annual end-of-year lull, while courts prosecuted activist and opposition MP on lèse-majesté charges.

Deep south witnessed annual lull in militant violence. Heavy rain and flooding across southernmost provinces brought customary end-of-year lull in militant attacks. Nonetheless, rangers and police 14 Dec detained militant suspect in Si Sakhon district, Narathiwat province, and recovered AK-47 assault rifle and ammunition. Motorcycle-borne militants 21 Dec fired several rounds at army base in Tak Bai district, Narathiwat province, wounding one soldier. Security forces 23 Dec used robot to disarm IED in Panare district, Pattani province.

Courts handed down series of lèse-majesté convictions. Thai Lawyers for Human Rights reported series of convictions in Dec: notably, group 6 Dec reported that South Bangkok Criminal Court convicted online clothes seller of lèse-majesté for three Facebook posts deemed to have defamed king, sentencing individual to six years imprisonment; 12 Dec reported same court convicted computer programmer of royal defamation and resisting arrest, sentencing individual to three years imprisonment. Group 13 Dec reported Bangkok Criminal Court convicted Move Forward Party MP Rukchanok Srinork for posts deemed damaging to people’s faith in monarchy. Court 14 Dec convicted pro-democracy activist and protest leader Shinawat Chankrajang for comments made in speech, sentencing him to three years in prison.

China maintained high naval activity in East China Sea and conducted joint aerial operations with Russia, while Beijing and Tokyo continued diplomatic engagement.

Maritime and aerial activity continued around disputed East China Sea islands. As of 31 Dec, Japan spotted 91 Chinese vessels in Japan’s contiguous zone during Dec and eight vessels within Japan’s territorial sea. China’s and Japan’s coast guards 10 Dec accused other of intrusions previous day in territorial waters of Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands; two Chinese Coast Guard ships 9 Dec and 10 Dec, and four ships 18 Dec entered Japan’s territorial waters around Senkaku/Diaoyu. Japanese Coast Guard revealed Chinese vessels made incursions into island’s contiguous zone on 352 days in 2023, highest number since records began in 2008. Meanwhile, Japan’s defence ministry 14 Dec reported two Chinese H6 bombers flew from East China Sea to Sea of Japan, meeting with two Russian TU95 bombers for joint flight, just as around seventeen Chinese and Russian aircraft flew around Japan, prompting Japanese fighter jets to scramble.

Japan and China continued diplomatic engagement. China’s ambassador to Japan Wu Jianghao 6 Dec met with representative of Japan’s Komeito political party Natsuo Yamaguchi to discuss promoting exchanges and communication in various fields, including party exchanges. China’s foreign ministry 8 Dec stated China holds open attitude towards exchanges and cooperation with Japan, including party-to-party exchanges, and expressed hope that Japan will make efforts to build constructive and stable relationship. Japan’s new ambassador to China, Kanasugi Kenji, 19 Dec arrived in China’s capital Beijing, expressing his intention to advance dialogue between two countries and address pending issues, including China’s restrictions on imports of Japanese fishery products over concerns related to release of treated water from Fukushima nuclear power plant.

In other important developments. Japanese, U.S. and Australian militaries 4 Dec initiated their first trilateral command post drill aimed at enhancing their readiness for Japan’s defence. China’s defence ministry 14 Dec urged Japan to stop interfering in China’s internal affairs and spreading false narratives about “Chinese military threat” as excuse for its military expansion.

Instability and violence persisted in Manipur state in far north east, Maoist militants increased attacks in centre, and breakthrough on border dispute with China remained elusive.

Ethnic conflict in Manipur state entered seventh month in Dec. Intra-community clashes 19 Dec flared up between Kuki-Zo tribes over naming of tribal burial site ahead of mass burial of 87 victims on 20 Dec by Indigenous Tribal Leader’s Forum, in line with Supreme Court ruling late Nov instructing govt to ensure dignified burials of tribal victims whose bodies had been held in morgues in state capital Imphal. In response, Manipur state govt same day imposed restrictions on Churachandpur district for two months, prohibiting assembly of five or more people and carrying of sticks or weapons. Suspected militants 30 Dec fired RPG rockets in ambush injuring five security forces personnel in Moreh district. Unidentified gunmen 1 Jan killed four Meitei Muslims, who have remained neutral in ethnic conflict, in Manipur’s Thoubal district.

Centre saw uptick in Maoist attacks. Following state elections in Chhattisgarh state (centre) in Nov, Maoist attacks killed several. Maoists 9 Dec killed ruling Bharatiya Janata Party member in Narayanpur district. IED blast 11 Dec injured two security personnel in Sukma district. IED blast 13 Dec killed security forces member in Narayanpur district. IED blast 14 Dec killed one security forces member in Kanker district. Gun battle 17 Dec erupted during anti-Maoist security operation in Sukma district, killing one security forces member.

Border dispute with China continued to smoulder. India and China 30 Nov held fourteenth meeting since May 2020 of Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs, but made no progress despite in-depth discussions on proposals to achieve complete disengagement in Eastern Ladakh; troops from both sides remain forward deployed in Demchok and Depsang friction points. Indian and Chinese commanders reportedly continued to meet during Dec. Reports during Dec indicated counter-insurgency force Assam Rifles will undertake preparations for deployment along Line of Actual Control in event of contingencies.

China and Philippines remained in tense dispute over contested South China Sea (SCS) features, leading to maritime collision near Second Thomas Shoal.

Amid war of words, Chinese and Philippine vessels collided in SCS. Philippines 3 Dec reported “alarming” increase of over 135 Chinese naval ships “swarming” Whitsun Reef in SCS. Manila 9 Dec accused Chinese coast guard of obstructing three military boats on resupply mission to fishing boats near Scarborough Shoal. Further fuelling animosity, Chinese and Philippine vessels 10 Dec collided near Second Thomas Shoal – source of tensions between pair in recent months – after similar incident in Oct: Philippine coast guard accused Beijing of firing water cannons and ramming resupply vessels and coast guard ship, causing “serious engine damage”, while China’s coast guard accused Manila of intentionally ramming one of its boats. Collision occurred after Manila deployed “Christmas convoy” of around 40 vessels to distribute gifts and provisions to Philippine troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal. U.S. 11 Dec underscored “ironclad” commitment mutual defence treaty with Philippines. Philippines foreign ministry 12 Dec summoned China’s ambassador to protest “back-to-back harassments” in SCS. Philippine ambassador to U.S. next day warned SCS was more dangerous flashpoint than Taiwan and called for multilateral responses to China’s coercive actions. Earlier, USS Gabrielle Giffords 4 Dec sailed past Second Thomas Shoal, which China strongly protested. Philippine President Marcos Jr. 19 Dec called for “paradigm shift” in approach to SCS, citing poor progress in diplomacy with Beijing.

In other important developments. Philippines 1 Dec inaugurated new coast guard station on contested Thitu Island to enhance monitoring capabilities. Chinese leader Xi Jinping 12 Dec visited Vietnam, declaring that pair will “enter a new era”; Vietnam elevated ties with U.S. and Japan to “comprehensive strategic partners” in recent months, a status previously reserved for China. Japan and regional bloc ASEAN 17 Dec held special summit commemorating 50 years of official ties; leaders adopted joint vision emphasising security and economic cooperation and respect for rule of law.

Bishkek repatriated 96 Kyrgyz nationals from displaced persons camp in Syria; talks between Tajik and Kyrgyz security officials on disputed border issue continued.

Authorities repatriated 96 women and children from Syria. Authorities 8 Dec announced they had repatriated 96 women and children from al-Hol displaced persons camp in north-east Syria, bringing total number of Kyrgyz nationals repatriated in 2023 to 333. U.S. same day welcomed announcement, praising Kyrgyzstan’s “tremendous commitment to both its nationals and to alleviating a security and humanitarian crisis”.

Bishkek and Dushanbe made further progress on border demarcation. Chief of State Committee for National Security Kamchybek Tashiev and his Tajik counterpart Saimumin Yatimov 12 Dec said 90% of Kyrgyz-Tajik border had been agreed upon following negotiations in Batken city, and promised talks on remaining parts of disputed border would continue; earlier, pair 1 Dec announced progress on issue after talks in Tajikistan’s Buston town. President Japarov 11 Dec said he hoped sides could finalise border demarcation by spring of 2024.

Talks between Tajik and Kyrgyz security officials on disputed border issue continued.

Chief of State Committee for National Security Saimumin Yatimov and his Kyrgyz counterpart Kamchybek Tashiev 12 Dec said 90% of Kyrgyz-Tajik border had been agreed upon following negotiations in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken city, and promised talks on remaining parts of disputed border would continue; earlier, pair 1 Dec announced progress on issue after talks in Buston town. Kyrgz President Sadyr Japarov 11 Dec said he hoped sides could finalise border demarcation by spring of 2024.

Jailing of lead activist raised concerns over media freedom.

Following 1 Dec sentencing of popular blogger from Ferghana region to eight years in prison for “insulting” and “slandering” public officials, NGO Human Rights Watch 5 Dec warned decision “will have a chilling effect on free speech and media freedoms in Uzbekistan”; statement added that “respect for freedom of speech and media freedoms has taken a negative turn and these rights are increasingly coming under attack”.

Tensions persisted over activity in buffer zone, while Greek and Turkish Cypriots appeared to inch toward agreement on new UN envoy.

Tensions continued in buffer zone and over other issues. Strains between Republic of Cyprus and “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) remained high over buffer zone activities following what Republic of Cyprus in Nov called Turkish Cypriot “violations”, including installation of camera and antenna on uninhabited house; after late Nov announcing “invisible and visible” measures in response to activity, Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides 1 Dec discussed situation in Ayios Dhometious area with UN Sec Gen Antonio Guterres and 3 Dec visited area. Meanwhile, Republic of Cyprus parliament 21 Dec approved “Maritime Spatial Plan” concerning maritime resource exploitation off Cyprus; Turkish Cypriot “foreign ministry” 23 Dec denounced plan as “unacceptable”, saying it ignored Turkish Cypriot rights. Republic of Cyprus 22 Dec said it was closely monitoring property developments in “TRNC” concerning appropriation of Greek Cypriot properties. Christodoulides 7 Dec suggested improved Greek-Turkish ties could help progress on Cyprus issue (see Türkiye).

Parties reportedly moved closer to appointing first UN envoy in six years. Greek sources announced Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot sides had agreed on new UN envoy, vacant since 2017, but Ankara, “TRNC” or UN did not officially confirm appointment during Dec; Republic of Cyprus 6 Dec announced its consent to appoint envoy, rumoured to be former Colombian FM Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar.

President Erdoğan’s visit to Greece marked significant improvement in bilateral ties following months of engagement.

Summit in Greece produced numerous agreements. Relations with Greece further improved as Erdoğan and Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis 7 Dec met in Greek capital Athens, signing fifteen agreements alongside “Athens Declaration on Friendly Relations and Good Neighbourliness”, committing to military confidence building measures, consultations on political issues and cooperation on issues of mutual interest. Leaders agreed to continue dialogue and spoke of turning Aegean into “sea of peace and cooperation”.

Military clashed with Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and affiliates, leaving dozen soldiers dead in Iraq. In Türkiye, security forces 4 Dec killed two wanted PKK militants in rural area of Mardin province. Main focus of anti-militant efforts remained concentrated in northern Iraq and northern Syria, with authorities claiming to have killed, including with targeted strikes, several high-ranking insurgents. In northern Iraq, attacks included 1 Dec drone strike that killed five, while militants 12 Dec killed Turkish second lieutenant. Marking escalation in casualties, clashes with PKK 22-23 Dec killed twelve Turkish soldiers; Turkish Defence Minister 27 Dec said retaliatory attacks struck 71 sites in Iraq and Syria, “neutralising” 59 PKK/People’s Protection Units militants. In Syria, Turkish forces 19 Dec said they had killed seven militants in Türkiye-controlled area.

Tensions continued with Israel and U.S. over Gaza. Ankara continued war of words with Israel over latter’s military campaign in Gaza (see Israel-Palestine); Erdoğan 8 Dec asserted all perpetrators of “genocide” must be punished, including Israeli PM Netanyahu. Events in Gaza also increased strains on U.S.-Türkiye relationship; Erdoğan 8, 14 and 19 Dec criticised Washington’s policy. Turkish parliamentary commission 26 Dec approved Sweden’s NATO membership bid, which awaits parliamentary ratification.

Operations against Islamic State (ISIS) continued. Security forces in Dec detained at least 630 individuals with alleged links to ISIS, marking notable increase compared to Nov. Notably, security forces 29 Dec apprehended three allegedly senior ISIS members and 29 others who were suspected of planning attack on churches and synagogues in Istanbul.

Yerevan and Baku agreed to confidence-building measures, including prisoner swap, in bilateral deal; Armenia accused Azerbaijani forces of killing soldier.

Baku and Yerevan announced surprise deal. PM’s Office and Azerbaijan’s Presidential Administration 7 Dec issued joint statement announcing sides had agreed to seize “historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace” with bilateral deal on confidence-building measures. Statement said Baku would release 32 Armenian soldiers and Yerevan would release two Azerbaijanis in “gesture of goodwill”; as part of deal, Armenia also voted in support of Azerbaijan’s bid to host UN climate change conference in 2024 (COP29), while Azerbaijan agreed to support Armenia’s candidacy for membership in COP Bureau. EU, U.S., Türkiye and Russia 7-8 Dec welcomed agreement.

International efforts to resume formal peace talks continued. U.S. Assistant Sec State James O’Brien 6 Dec met with Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev in Baku; during meeting Aliyev acknowledged that U.S. “could contribute” to peace process, O’Brien said he looked forward to hosting both countries’ FMs “soon”. PM Pashinyan and Aliyev 26 Dec met informally on sidelines of Commonwealth of Independent States summit in St. Petersburg city (Russia); Kremlin same day announced sides expressed readiness to finalise peace treaty, offered Russian assistance but gave no indication on timeline. Meanwhile, Yerevan 25 Dec confirmed receiving latest peace deal draft from Baku.

Armenia claimed Azerbaijani forces killed soldier. Yerevan 4 Dec accused Baku of killing Armenian soldier, which latter denied. Meanwhile, EU 11 Dec agreed to expand civilian mission in Armenia from 138 to 209 staff; Azerbaijan next day criticised move, claiming mission had failed to foster regional stability.

In other important developments. Authorities rejected proposal from former Nagorno-Karabakh representatives to create govt-in-exile in capital Yerevan (see Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict).

Baku and Yerevan agreed to confidence-building measures in bilateral deal, Armenia accused Azerbaijani forces of killing soldier, and President Aliyev called for snap election in February.

Baku and Yerevan announced surprise deal, Baku denied killing Armenian soldier. Armenian PM’s Office and Presidential Administration 7 Dec issued joint statement announcing sides had agreed to seize “historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace” with bilateral deal on confidence-building measures. Statement said Baku would release 32 Armenian soldiers and Yerevan would release two Azerbaijanis in “gesture of goodwill”; as part of deal, Armenia also voted in support of Azerbaijan’s bid to host UN climate change conference in 2024 (COP29), while Azerbaijan agreed to support Armenia’s candidacy for membership in COP Bureau. EU, U.S., Türkiye and Russia 7-8 Dec welcomed deal. Earlier in month, Yerevan 4 Dec accused Baku of killing Armenian soldier, which latter denied; Azerbaijan 12 Dec criticised EU decision to expand civilian mission in Armenia, claiming mission had failed to foster regional stability.

International efforts to resume formal peace talks continued. U.S. Assistant Sec State James O’Brien 6 Dec met with President Aliyev in Baku; during meeting Aliyev acknowledged that U.S. “could contribute” to peace process, O’Brien said he looked forward to hosting both countries’ FMs “soon”. Armenian PM Pashinyan and Aliyev 26 Dec met informally on sidelines of Commonwealth of Independent States summit in St. Petersburg city (Russia); Kremlin same day announced sides expressed readiness to finalise peace treaty, offered Russian assistance but gave no indication on timeline. Meanwhile, Yerevan 25 Dec confirmed receiving latest peace deal draft from Baku.

President announced elections in Feb 2024. Aliyev 7 Dec called snap presidential election for 7 Feb 2024, previously slated for April 2025; several opposition parties announced they would boycott poll. News came amid harsh crackdown on independent media, with around thirteen govt critics and journalists detained in Nov and Dec. EU 21 Dec criticised “narrowing space” for independent journalism and free speech. Meanwhile, Baku 26 Dec expelled two French diplomats for actions “incompatible with their diplomatic status”; Paris next day denied allegations and reciprocated with expulsion of two Azerbaijani diplomats.

EU granted Georgia candidate status, prompting thousands to celebrate in capital as PM Gharibashvili hailed “historic victory”; breakaway Abkhazia’s FM declared U.S. official persona non grata.

European Council granted Georgia long-awaited candidate status. European Council 14 Dec granted EU candidate status to Georgia. PM Gharibashvili hailed decision and thanked European leaders, members of ruling Georgian Dream party and govt for their contributions to “historic victory”. Gharibashvili next day spoke in front of thousands gathered in capital Tbilisi to celebrate, saying victory “belongs to you”. Georgian Dream did not invite President Zourabichvili, currently embroiled in bitter dispute with ruling party, onto stage after accusing her of “doing everything to prevent Georgia from obtaining candidate status”.

In important developments in breakaway Abkhazia. Police in breakaway Abkhazia region 6 Dec reportedly beat up Georgian citizen Temur Karbaia, who died from injuries three days later. Abkhazia’s de facto FM Inal Ardzinba 7 Dec accused U.S. development agency of “non-transparent activities” and “perceived misinformation”, declared its South Caucasus director John Pennell persona non grata and announced foreign ministry would not certify new projects partially or fully funded by agency. European Court of Human Rights 19 Dec found Russia responsible for murder of Georgian citizen Giga Otkhozoria, killed in 2016 on Georgian side of line separating Abkhazia from Georgia proper.

Discussions on normalisation process between Kosovo and Serbia continued amid breakthrough on license plate dispute.

Efforts to normalise Kosovo-Serbia relations persisted. Belgrade 14 Dec told EU that March 2023 agreement with Pristina to normalise relations was “not legally binding”, prompting PM Kurti 22 Dec to accuse Serbia of withdrawing from deal. EU Special Representative Miroslav Lajčák 21 Dec promised EU would formalise “Serbia’s commitments” from March agreement by Jan 2024; he added that Kosovo could advance without Serb signature on EU and U.S. proposal for creation of Community of Serb municipalities – which enables self-governing association for Serb municipalities – as it is Kosovo’s “internal document”. Kurti 22 Dec responded with proposal to draft new proposal on the “Community” and sign normalisation deal with Serbia at European Council summit in March 2024.

Belgrade moved to allow Kosovo license plates. Authorities 15 Dec ended amnesty for use of Serb license plates registered before 1999, which marked end of Kosovo-Serbia war. Serbia 25 Dec decided to allow vehicles with Kosovo license plates to enter its territory; EU same day welcomed move, calling it “a positive step” toward normalisation. Dispute over license plates had long stirred tensions between the two.

Russia pounded Ukrainian cities in largest wave of airstrikes since full-scale invasion, govt sought to reform mobilisation system, and U.S. approved military aid to Ukraine amid uncertainty about future assistance.

Russia launched wave of deadly airstrikes on Ukrainian cities. Russia 8 Dec launched nineteen cruise missiles in attack on capital Kyiv and Dnipro city, killing one; 28-29 Dec conducted largest wave of air attacks since full-scale invasion, striking cities across Ukraine using cruise and ballistic missiles, killing at least 40 and wounding over 160. Three-month pause in cruise missile use prior to strikes had raised fears that Moscow was stockpiling for massive attack that could overwhelm air defences. In Donetsk region, Russian forces advanced in pincer movement around Avdiivka town, which remained under Ukrainian control; Moscow 25 Dec claimed capture of Marinka town. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops retained hold of bridgehead on Russian-occupied left bank of Dnipro River in southern Kherson region, but were unable to advance under heavy Russian fire. Kyiv 26 Dec destroyed Russian warship during air raid in Russian-annexed Crimea.

Tensions emerged over conscription system and plans for demobilisation. President Zelenskyy 1 Dec announced plans to reform conscription system amid increasing recruitment difficulty. Zelenskyy 19 Dec said military proposal to mobilise up to 500,000 additional troops required revision, citing lack of information on funding or plan for demobilisation and rotation of long-serving soldiers; announcement came amid several protests in Dec calling for demobilisation of troops fighting since beginning of war. Govt 25 Dec submitted conscription reform bill to parliament; Defence Minister Umerov previous day said document would give clarity about rotation but would not lead to demobilisation of long-serving soldiers.

U.S. approved military assistance to Kyiv while EU faced setback. EU member states 14 Dec voted to initiate accession talks with Ukraine, but Hungary next day vetoed €50bn military support package. U.S. 27 Dec approved more military aid to Ukraine, but future assistance will require Congressional approval and prospects for deal are uncertain. Senior army commander 18 Dec announced his troops had begun rationing artillery shells and scaling back operations due to uncertainty about Western assistance.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s (NK) former de facto authorities sparked controversy in Armenia over plans for govt-in-exile amid uncertainty over enclave’s future.

Yerevan and exiled de facto NK officials sparred over proposal for govt-in-exile. After Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan 6 Dec emphasised that his constitutional responsibility is solely for Armenia, NK’s exiled former de facto leadership 10 Dec criticised attempts to “finally close” NK issue and promised “to stand up for the rights of the people of Artsakh”. Armenian MP and deputy chair of ruling Civil Contract party Gevorg Papoyan 11 Dec ruled out proposal by former de facto NK officials to create govt-in-exile in Armenian capital Yerevan. Vladimir Grigoryan, adviser to NK’s former de facto leader, 22 Dec described Sept decree dissolving enclave’s de facto institutions as void, saying “Republic of Artsakh, its government and other bodies will continue to operate after 2023”. Comments elicited strong reactions from some Armenian govt officials, prompting Grigoryan to clarify his comments were his personal opinion and that he was no longer an adviser.

Political and public organisations from NK proposed UN-led transition for region. Around 200 civil society and political organisations from NK, now based in Armenia, 10 Dec issued statement calling for region to be placed under UN administration for transition period before referendum on its future; proposal indicated reluctance to return under Azerbaijani rule.

U.S. and UK issued new sanctions amid continued domestic repression, and President Lukashenko embarked on diplomatic tour in Asia, Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.

Lukashenko held intelligence summit, repression campaign continued. Lukashenko 14 Dec hosted intelligence chiefs of regional bloc Commonwealth of Independent States, claiming “foreign intelligence” operations on “our territory” were becoming “increasingly aggressive”. Meanwhile, crackdown on dissent continued. Notably, police 8 Dec detained two journalists in south-east city of Svetlahorsk on extremism charges; court in Hrodna city (west) 19 Dec sentenced human rights activist Alyaksandra Kasko to ten years in prison for participating in 2020 election protests.

President embarked on major diplomatic tour. Lukashenko 4 Dec met President Xi in Chinese capital Beijing before 8 Dec visiting United Arab Emirates for talks with Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed. Lukashenko next day travelled to Equatorial Guinea, signing cooperation agreements with President Obiang, concluded tour with 10 Dec visit to Kenya.

Opposition leader renewed drive for international support. Exiled opposition head Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 5 Dec testified before U.S. Congress, calling for increased support for opposition and expansion of sanctions against govt; Washington same day issued new sanctions targeting entities generating revenue for regime. UK 6 Dec announced new sanctions related to govt support for Russian invasion of Ukraine. Tsikhanouskaya 10 Dec met with EU FMs and EU High Representative Josep Borrell, who announced €30mn opposition support package.

President Putin reiterated objectives of war in Ukraine, campaign for presidential election in March 2024 kicked off, and Kyiv shelled Belgorod city in largest attack since full-scale invasion.

Putin confirmed Russia’s goals in Ukraine remain unchanged. In televised press conference, Putin 14 Dec proclaimed there will only be peace in Ukraine “when we achieve our goals”, which remain “Ukraine’s denazification, demilitarisation and neutral status”; he said 617,000 military personnel are in combat zone, of which 244,000 are mobilised soldiers. Putin 19 Dec reiterated remarks during meeting with top defence officials, said Moscow is upgrading its nuclear arsenal as west wages “hybrid war” against it but emphasised Russia will not attack NATO countries. Meanwhile, mothers and wives of mobilised soldiers organised more protests during month, 18 Dec called on Putin to end war for first time.

Putin announced presidential bid. Federation Council 7 Dec approved resolution setting date of presidential election for 17 March 2024. Putin next day announced bid for fifth presidential term; ten others announced their participation in poll, though some have yet to collect enough signatures to run. Independent candidate Yekaterina Duntsova, who has called for end to Ukraine conflict, announced bid but authorities 27 Dec barred her from running. Team of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny 7 Dec sponsored billboards in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other Russian cities urging Russians not to vote for Putin.

Kyiv launched deadliest attack on Belgorod since full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine 30 Dec attacked Belgorod city in heaviest shelling of Russian city since full-scale invasion, killing at least 24 and injuring over 100; Putin promised to retaliate (see Ukraine). Meanwhile, Freedom of Russia Legion (Russian combatants fighting for Ukraine) 17 Dec claimed responsibility for cross-border attack into Belgorod region. Former Ukrainian parliamentarian Ilya Kiva, who fled to Russia early 2022 ahead of full-scale invasion, was shot dead 6 Dec in Moscow region; media reports alleged Ukrainian special services carried out operation.

Japan and EU introduced further sanctions on Russia. Japan 15 Dec imposed new sanctions against Russia. EU 18 Dec adopted twelfth sanctions package; Russia next day expanded list of EU representatives banned from entering country.

Criminal violence continued at high levels, govt faced criticism over reported number of disappearances, and President López Obrador called for disbandment of autonomous federal bodies.

Criminal violence remained rampant. Clash between La Familia Michoacan crime group and residents who reportedly resisted extortion attempt left four civilians and ten alleged criminals dead 8 Dec in Texcaltitlán town, State of Mexico (centre); at least fourteen people from area abducted by end of Dec in possible retaliation. Clash between Sinaloa and Jalisco Cartels in Boquilla del Carmen rural area, Zacatecas state (north), 12 Dec killed six. Efforts to tackle criminal activities continued. Notably, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen 6 Dec announced Office of Foreign Assets Control had sanctioned fifteen members of Beltran Leyva crime group and two affiliated companies for drug trafficking. Govt 14 Dec arrested sister and nephew of Genaro García Luna, former public security official sentenced in U.S. for collusion with Sinaloa cartel, for alleged involvement in organised crime and money laundering.

Govt faced criticism for alleged deflation of number of disappearances. Govt 14 Dec announced it had identified whereabouts of around one third of 110,000 persons on national registry of disappeared persons through census conducted by Ministry of Wellbeing, claimed number of missing people is much lower than previously thought. Rights groups and community organisations searching for disappeared people criticised authorities for making neither methodology nor data public for independent verification, said Ministry is not mandated to do count and accused govt of reducing true number by not taking new cases into account and leaving some states out of census.

Critics accused López Obrador of removing checks and balances. President López Obrador 11 Dec said he would call on parliament to dissolve all autonomous federal bodies, including one that processes freedom of information requests; judges belonging to National Magistrates’ Association 13 Dec submitted complaint before Inter-American Court of Human Rights against attacks on its independence. President next day designated member of ruling MORENA party a seat on Supreme Court after no candidate received required two-third majority of congressional votes, raising concerns about Supreme Court’s independence.

Govt resumed peace talks with FARC dissident faction and ELN after Constitutional Court set limits on scope of President Petro’s “total peace” policy; confrontations between armed groups continued.

Govt negotiations with FARC dissident faction and ELN resumed. Petro administration and dissident Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) faction known as FARC-EP Estado Mayor Central (FARC-EMC) 7 Dec returned to talks in Popayán town, Cauca department (Pacific Coast); dissidents had temporarily withdrawn from talks mid Nov to reconfigure negotiating team to favour military factions, 2 Dec appointed three temporary advisers to process including senior commanders, elevating level of delegation. Parties 12 Dec announced series of agreements, including FARC-EMC pledge to stop kidnappings for ransom and inauguration of joint monitoring mechanism for ceasefire; talks to resume 8 Jan in capital Bogotá, with ceasefire due to expire 20 Jan. Govt negotiations with National Liberation Army (ELN) 4 Dec also resumed in Mexico. Insurgents 17 Dec agreed to request from govt’s new peace commissioner Otty Patiño to stop kidnappings but suggested govt needs to fill gap in financing this would incur for rebels. Sides said they hope to extend ceasefire, due to expire end of Jan.

Constitutional Court upheld, with limits, govt’s “total peace” policy. Patiño 6 Dec began role amid new limits on govt’s overall strategy after Constitutional Court late Nov ruled executive could still decide which armed groups to engage with, but found that congress should pass legal framework setting terms for any eventual demobilisation agreement with criminal groups. In immediate term, decision may impact urban dialogue processes in cities of Buenaventura, Medellín and Quibdó, where Petro administration has secured truces between gangs. Govt can still advance conversations with country’s largest armed organisation, Gaitanista Self Defense Forces, but discussions about demobilisation or judicial guarantees must wait until congress approves legal framework.

Armed organisation sought to expand territory, clashing with FARC dissidents. Gaitanistas continued to expand in trafficking corridor that stretches from Bajo Cauca subregion of Antioquia department (north) to south of Bolívar department (north east), facing resistance from temporary ELN-FARC-EMC alliance; clashes between group and FARC dissidents displaced almost 1,000 people in Briceño municipality, Antioquia, late Nov-9 Dec.

Relations with Guyana remained tense after Caracas’ December referendum on disputed territory; Maduro administration continued to stall full implementation of Barbados deal with opposition.

Relations with Guyana remained tense despite agreement to avoid hostile acts. Maduro govt 3 Dec held referendum on policy toward contested Essequibo area, oil-rich region administered by Guyana, with voters answering affirmatively to all five questions on ballot, including whether they support non-recognition of International Court of Justice’s jurisdiction and creation of new Venezuelan state in disputed territory. Govt subsequently claimed binding mandate resulting from poll, ratcheting up tensions with neighbour. Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali 14 Dec met in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines under auspices of CELAC and CARICOM regional bodies and with UN, Brazilian and Colombian representatives; parties agreed not to “threaten or use force” and to establish joint commission to mutually “address matters” and report within three months. UK 24 Dec announced its warship would visit Guyana 29-31 Dec, however, prompting Venezuela 28 Dec to hold military exercises near disputed waters.

Govt-opposition tensions simmered ahead of 2024 elections. Flare-up with Guyana distracted attention from govt’s slow implementation of 17 Oct Barbados Agreement with opposition, with some progress but also attacks on opposition. Notably, Chief Prosecutor Tarek W. Saab 6 Dec announced arrest warrants for a dozen opposition activists; accused included three members of opposition presidential candidate María Corina Machado’s team and Roberto Abdul, head of NGO that Machado founded and member of opposition Primary Commission; authorities reportedly held Abdul incommunicado. In attempt to compete in next year’s polls, Machado 15 Dec appealed to govt-controlled Supreme Court to overturn ban from running for office, despite previously saying she would not.

Washington and Caracas agreed prisoner swap. U.S. official Brian Nichols 5 Dec said Washington continued to engage with Caracas and reiterated threat to reimpose sanctions if more prisoners were not released and Barbados conditions not fulfilled. Govt and U.S. 20 Dec announced prisoner swap, exchanging ten jailed Americans for Maduro ally Alex Saab, who was awaiting trial on money laundering charges; agreement also saw Abdul and twenty other Venezuelans released.

Political volatility remained high amid relentless attempts to discredit election winner Bernardo Arévalo, due to take office on 14 Jan; ability for president-elect to assume office will be test case for country’s stability.

Judiciary continued to interfere in electoral transition. Public Prosecutor’s Office 8 Dec argued elections should be annulled due to administrative irregularities, including falsified signatures used to create Arévalo’s party Movimiento Semilla, and accused Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) of complicity. TSE same day said results were “official” and “unalterable”, and warned that if Arévalo did not take office on 14 Jan it would “break institutional order”. Amid international and domestic scrutiny, outgoing President Giammattei 12 Dec promised transition of power would occur but criticised international pressure (see below). Constitutional Court 14 Dec declared all officials elected in 2023 elections must take office on 14 Jan, but allowed Prosecutor’s Office to continue investigations. Tensions also continued over late-Nov removal of TSE magistrates’ immunity, though they remained in post.

Continued assault on election result triggered more support for Arévalo. Washington 11 Dec restricted visas of almost 300 Guatemalans, including 100 Congress members and private sector actors suspected of supporting campaign against Arévalo. UN human right chief Volker Turk 9 Dec called “persistent and systematic” attempts to undermine election result “extremely disturbing”. Organization of American States 12 Dec gave its sec gen authority to conduct visits and make decisions to preserve democratic institutions. EU parliament 14 Dec called for asset freezes and travel bans of Attorney General Consuelo Porras, top prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche and judge Fredy Orellana, among others. Meanwhile, Arévalo 7 Dec organised march to “defend truth, justice and democracy”, attended by Indigenous groups, politicians from different parties and civil society organisations. Strike led by Indigenous leaders continued throughout month.

Security situation remained dire, with violence in capital Port-au-Prince and anti-gang operations in south; govt-opposition negotiations failed to secure deal; and preparations for multinational mission continued.

Gang-related insecurity persisted in capital and in south. Gang violence continued to spread in capital; notably, NGO Doctors Without Borders 15 Dec indefinitely suspended activities at emergency centre in Turgeau district after group of armed men 12 Dec stopped ambulance leaving facility and killed patient. Gunmen 25 Dec killed four members of family and kidnapped four others in Croix-des-Bouquet district. Meanwhile, public prosecutors in southern Haiti carried out operations against gangs amid concerns over legality. Notably, Minister of Justice Emmelie Prophète 15 Dec publicly criticised Miragoâne commune’s public prosecutor Jean Ernest Muscadin for conducting illegal operation to drive out gang that had taken over Mariani village south west of Port-au-Prince in early Nov.

Negotiations between interim govt and opposition continued. CARICOM (body of Caribbean nations) experts 6-14 Dec visited Haiti for fifth round of negotiations between interim govt and opposition, but no agreement was reached. Spokesperson for civil society platform Montana Accord 8 Dec declined invitation to join talks, alleging disagreement over attendees and that acting PM Henry’s resignation was not on agenda; next day, however, sixteen members of platform’s leadership denounced spokesperson’s unilateral decision and said they would continue negotiations. UN Sec Gen 7 Dec expressed concern over limited progress of dialogue.

Reciprocal visits took place in preparation for Kenyan-led multinational mission. Kenyan delegation 5 Dec visited Haiti and met with govt officials and U.S. diplomats. Head of police Frantz Elbé 13-15 Dec travelled to Kenya for fact-finding mission and bilateral discussions between security forces; media later suggested first batch of 300 officers may arrive in Feb 2024.

In other important developments. UN Security Council 8 Dec added four gang leaders to sanctions list, while UK and U.S. sanctioned various former officials for involvement in abuses and corruption. Judge in Miami 19 Dec sentenced former Haitian senator to life in prison for conspiring to kill President Moïse in 2021.

Crackdown on church continued amid international condemnation over human rights violations, and Managua upgraded diplomatic ties with China.

Authorities arrested senior bishop amid continued attacks on Catholic Church. Police 21 Dec arrested Bishop Isidoro Mora of Siuna diocese in north west; Mora day prior had spoken publicly about Bishop Rolando Álvarez, first major clerical figure detained by govt and sentenced in Feb 2023 to 26 years in prison for treason. Authorities 20-30 Dec arrested thirteen priests and two Seminarians.

Ortega regime rejected accusations of human rights violations. UN Human Rights Council 18 Dec held special session on Nicaragua, where Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada Al-Nashif asked Ortega govt to engage with her office and address human rights violations; govt rejected concerns as misinformation and foreign interference in domestic affairs. Nicaragua same day expelled International Committee of the Red Cross.

Beijing and Managua deepened ties. Nicaragua and China upgraded diplomatic ties, with pair 20 Dec announcing new strategic partnership; Chinese President Xi Jinping same day described move as beginning of relationship modelled on “solidarity, cooperation and mutual benefit”. Ortega and Xi also announced China-Nicaragua Free Trade Agreement will take effect 1 Jan 2024. Earlier, govt 4 Dec recalled Ambassador to Argentina after Argentinian President Javier Milei called Nicaraguan rulers “dictators”.

Institutional crisis persisted amid Congressional paralysis, and violence remained high despite state of exception.

Legislature remained blocked amid divides over appointment of officials. Parliament closed 2023 amid four months of congressional paralysis, during which no laws were passed, including 2024 budget. Ruling Libre party took advantage of situation to appoint more officials through controversial Congressional Permanent Commission, comprising eight pro-govt and one opposition legislator. Though opposition parties insisted govt’s appointments were illegal, actions appeared to push former toward compromise: notably, opposition National Party 7 Dec announced it was close to agreement with Libre party over members of Supreme Chamber of Accounts, body that oversees public finances. Crisis continued to hinder progress on creation of UN-led anti-corruption commission (CICIH); govt and UN 18 Dec extended memorandum for CICIH’s creation until June 2024.

Stringent security measures failed to slow violence. Despite state of emergency, new data showed that violence and crime still plague country. Notably, NGO Observatory of Violence 6 Dec reported 27% increase in multiple homicides in 2023 compared with 2022; Association for a Just Society 12 Dec reported 11% of citizens are victims of extortion; and violence against women remained acute, with UN body CEPAL 2 Dec reporting one woman is murdered every 21 hours.

Relations with Venezuela remained tense after latter’s December referendum on disputed territory, despite agreement to avoid hostile acts.

Venezuelan govt 3 Dec held referendum on policy toward contested Essequibo area, oil-rich region currently administered by Guyana. Voters answered affirmatively to all five questions on ballot, with authorities saying 10.5mn people participated. Caracas claimed binding mandate for non-recognition of International Court of Justice’s jurisdiction and creation of new Venezuelan state in disputed territory, ratcheting up tensions with its neighbour. Venezuelan President Maduro and President Ali 14 Dec met in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines under auspices of CELAC and CARICOM regional bodies and in presence of UN, Brazilian and Colombian representatives; parties agreed not to “threaten or use force” and to establish joint commission to mutually “address matters” and report within three months. UK 24 Dec announced its warship would visit Guyana 29-31 Dec, however, prompting Venezuela 28 Dec to hold military exercises near disputed waters.

Claudia Rodríguez became interim president as 2024 election cycle kicked off, and govt again extended state of exception.

Presidential designee appointed as Bukele stepped back for election campaign. President Bukele and VP Ulloa 1 Dec began leave of absence to focus on electoral campaign ahead of Feb 2024 presidential poll. Bukele ally Claudia Rodríguez, who independent media outlet Gato Encerrado previously accused of corruption, same day became interim president. At request of women candidates facing online harassment, Supreme Electoral Tribunal 5 Dec began investigating political violence against Nuestro Tiempo and ARENA political parties.

Emergency security measures extended amid human rights violations. Authorities 6 Dec extended state of exception for 21st time amid more concerns about human rights abuses under measures. Notably, NGOs Movement of Victims of the Regime and Humanitarian Legal Aid 3 Dec discovered four more people had died in prison, none of whom had been sentenced; according to NGOs, around 200 people have died in prison. Human rights monitor Amnesty International 5 Dec warned El Salvador “is experiencing an alarming regression in the respect for and protection of human rights”.

In other important developments. Bukele 1 Dec announced construction of National Stadium and Library with Chinese funding, signalling deepening ties. Court 22 Dec ordered arrest of former president Alfredo Cristiani for alleged cover-up in relation to 1981 El Mozote massacre during civil war.

Lebanon continued to face spectre of war as deadly border clashes between Hizbollah and Israel continued to increase in frequency and intensity.

Hostilities resumed on border after temporary de facto truce. Hizbollah and Israel 1 Dec resumed attacks after collapse of so-called humanitarian pause in Gaza lasting seven days, which sides had unofficially observed in north (see Israel-Palestine). Israel expanded its range of targets in southern Lebanon to include residential areas, notably destroying many homes in Aitaroun village on 12 Dec and bringing number of displaced on Lebanese side to over 50,000; Hizbollah reportedly lost some 134 fighters, as of late Dec, while Israeli strikes killed several civilians and one Lebanese Armed Forces soldier. Hizbollah during Dec frequently claimed “direct hits” on Israeli military personnel and infrastructure; notably, Hizbollah strike 7 Dec killed Israeli civilian, marking first such non-military fatality near border since 7 Oct. Although Hizbollah and Israel have avoided large-scale escalation to date, Israeli government increasingly faces domestic pressure to confront Hizbollah’s presence along border, as tens of thousands of residents in northern Israel have been displaced. Israel Defence Minister Yoav Gallant 6 Dec assured Hizbollah would be forced away from border, either by diplomatic or other means. Gallant and Israeli PM Netanyahu 18 Dec reportedly informed U.S. they will allow some time for diplomacy but expect tangible progress; spectre of wider conflict will continue to loom so long as no general ceasefire is reached in Gaza and border hostilities continue, raising risk of escalation by accident or design. Following alleged Israeli assassination of deputy Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut on 2 Jan, Hizbollah vowed retaliation.

Domestic crisis and executive vacuum persisted. Govt continued to struggle to secure funding for its national emergency plan to deal with spillover of Hamas-Israel war. Armed Forces 1 and 17 Dec announced it had rescued 110 and 50 refugees, respectively, off Lebanese coast on Europe-bound boats. Meanwhile, presidential vacuum entered its thirteenth consecutive month in Dec. Parliament 14-15 Dec convened on exceptional basis to extend term of army commander Joseph Aoun, who was scheduled to retire on 10 Jan.

Israel and U.S. traded deadly tit-for-tat attacks with Iran-backed groups amid tensions over Israel-Hamas war, hostilities persisted in north west, and Islamic State (ISIS) maintained its desert insurgency.

Israel launched airstrikes, U.S. and Iran-backed groups targeted each other. Israel continued to target various locations, including in retaliation against alleged Hizbollah rocket launches. Notably, Israeli airstrike 2 Dec killed four Iran-linked militants in capital Damascus; drone 8 Dec killed four, including three Hizbollah fighters in Quneitra province. In significant attack, airstrike 25 Dec killed prominent Iranian commander Razi Mousavi; Tehran warned Israel to expect “smart response”. Drone attack 29 Dec targeted warehouses in Al-Bukamal; confirmed casualties included at least four Hizbollah members and six Iranian-linked militants. Meanwhile, U.S. 1 Dec struck alleged “Islamic Resistance” headquarters in Al-Bukamal. Attacks 14 Dec targeted U.S. base in Conoco gas field, Deir ez-Zor, and Al-Tanf and Rukban bases, Homs; in response, U.S. 9 Dec struck military site in Al-Mayadin, Deir ez-Zor.

In north west, hostilities continued. Rebel raid 7 Dec targeted army in Aleppo province, claiming seven army members as casualties. Rebels 17 Dec targeted govt forces in Latakia province, prompting Russia 18, 19, 25 Dec to resume airstrikes targeting Idlib city and countryside, killing at least five civilians. Shelling in Idlib throughout Dec killed at least sixteen civilians; UN reported 40% of fatalities since early Oct were children. Meanwhile, in Aleppo province, Manbij Military Council 16 Dec fired rockets at Turkish base in Sheikh Nasser village. SDF claimed Turkish airstrikes 23-25 Dec killed eight civilians in SDF-controlled area (see Türkiye).

ISIS continued to show signs of resurgence. Suspected ISIS attack 8 Dec killed Iranian commander and four others in Al-Bukamal city, Deir ez-Zor province; same day killed seven pro-regime fighters near Al-Bukamal. Russian airstrike 15 Dec killed ISIS militants near Al-Sukhna village, Homs province, and Al-Rasafa villages, Hama province.

Anti-govt protests continued in south amid unstable Syrian-Jordanian border. Anti-govt protests in Suwayda city 1, 9, 10, 15, 20 Dec demanded political change, release of detainees. Jordan mid Dec reportedly launched airstrikes after cross-border raids (see Jordan).

War in Gaza reverberated across region as Iran-backed groups engaged in hostilities with U.S. forces and Israel, spotlighting risks of escalation; West imposed series of sanctions against Iran.

Iran-backed groups maintained regional pressure amid ongoing Gaza onslaught. Iran-backed groups continued engagement in hostilities with Israel and/or U.S. throughout Dec as Israel continued war in Gaza (see Israel-Palestine): hostilities between Hizbollah and Israel continued to expand in frequency and intensity, “Axis of Resistance” attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq reached 113 as of 31 Dec as Iran 25 Dec vowed retaliation for killing of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps official by alleged Israeli strike in Syria, and U.S. Navy killed Houthi militants in Red Sea amid threats against commercial vessels (see Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen). Iran disavowed direct engagement, but White House official 22 Dec accused Tehran of being “deeply involved in planning” Houthi attacks in Red Sea, and Israeli PM Netanyahu 30 Dec contended Iran was leading “aggression against us on various fronts”.

Western sanctions continued to mount on Iran-linked entities. U.S. Commerce Department 5 Dec added eleven companies linked with “Iranian-Russian efforts to develop unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) facility” to its Entity list. U.S. 7 Dec sanctioned another thirteen persons and companies said to be financing Houthis. U.S. 8 Dec blacklisted two Iranians for various operations, notably plots against U.S. officials. UK same day sanctioned five Iranian officials over human rights concerns. EU 11 Dec announced sanctions against eleven persons and entities involved in development of UAVs used in Russia-Ukraine war. U.S., UK 14 Dec designated several Iranian officials and Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad representatives to Iran.

In other important developments. Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for 15 Dec attack against police station in Balochestan (south east), which killed eleven. International Atomic Energy Agency 26 Dec informed member states that Iran increased production rate of 60% enriched uranium since Nov; U.S., UK, France and Germany 28 Dec jointly condemned Iran’s action.

Iran-backed groups and U.S. traded deadly attacks amid Israel-Gaza war, country held first provincial elections in a decade, and lethal clashes occurred in north between Türkiye and Kurdish militants.

Iran-backed militias attacked U.S. assets, U.S. conducted retaliatory strikes. Iran-linked groups throughout Dec continued multiple attacks targeting U.S. troops at Ain al-Asad base, Anbar governorate, and Hareer base, Erbil governorate; groups launched attacks into eastern Syria targeting U.S. bases. Notably, U.S. drone 3 Dec killed five Iran-linked militants in Kirkuk governorate. Rockets 8 Dec targeted U.S. embassy in capital Baghdad in first attack on non-military U.S. asset since outbreak of Gaza war (see Israel-Palestine) and rockets same day struck Ain al-Asad airbase; in response, govt took stance against groups, established investigative task force and 14 Dec announced detention of several affiliates of groups. Kataib Hizbollah 25 Dec attacked Erbil airbase, injuring three U.S. personnel; U.S. same day struck three Kataib Hizbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba sites, killing one and injuring eighteen; govt condemned U.S. strike as “hostile act”.

Country held first provincial elections in ten years. Iraq 18 Dec held first provincial elections since 2013 in which Shia Coordination Framework reportedly won 101 of 285 seats. In southern governorates, Shiite State of Law Coalition, tied to former PM Nuri al-Maliki, and Nabni coalition, tied to Popular Mobilisation Forces, stood out among Shia parties. In Kirkuk governorate, where voter turnout reached highest nationwide at 66%, Kurdish parties such as Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and Kurdistan Democratic Party won most votes.

Türkiye-Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) clashes killed twelve Turkish soldiers. Marking escalation in casualties, clashes with PKK 22-23 Dec killed twelve Turkish soldiers in north; Turkish Defence Minister 27 Dec said retaliatory attacks struck 71 sites in Iraq and Syria, “neutralizing” 59 Kurdish fighters. Meanwhile, two explosive-laden drones 30 Dec struck Peshmerga base in Primam, north of Erbil; regional authorities blamed “government-linked outlaw groups”.

In another important development. Clashes in Baghdad between militiamen loyal to Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and rival Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) group 26 Dec reportedly injured two, after AAH erected portraits of slain Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

Security forces resisted cross-border armed raids by smugglers and militants from Syria, as military reportedly launched retaliatory airstrikes.

Security forces battled drug smugglers and cross-border raids from Syria. Notably, army 5 Dec killed three drug smugglers seeking to cross border from Syria during operation that seized over 200,000 captagon pills. Dozens of alleged drug smugglers from Syria 12 Dec crossed border at undisclosed location and exchanged fire with soldiers, leaving several smugglers and one soldier dead. Army 18 Dec said Iran-backed militants armed with advanced weaponry attempted to cross border from Syria’s southern Suwayda province into Jordan’s Mafraq governorate; armed forces reportedly struck vehicle and clashed with militants who fled back to Syria, killing several militants and injuring several army personnel. Armed forces that night reportedly launched multiple airstrikes in Syria’s Suwayda and Deraa provinces in retaliation. Earlier on 18 Dec, army said it seized nearly five million pills of captagon, marking one of its largest busts in years.

Kingdom continued rapprochement with Iran against backdrop of escalation in Red Sea, while Russian President Putin visited capital Riyadh.

Riyadh and Tehran reasserted commitment to normalisation. Saudi Arabia’s and Iran’s deputy FMs 15 Dec held tripartite meeting in Chinese capital Beijing to reassert commitment to normalisation deal brokered in March 2023. Iran previous day announced it would lift visa restrictions for 33 states, including Saudi Arabia, while Iranian pilgrims from 19 Dec were allowed to complete Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca city for first time in eight years. Despite improvement in relations between pair, Riyadh fears regional escalation as result of Israel’s war in Gaza and reportedly asked U.S. to show restraint in responding to attacks in Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis; regional media reports mid Dec surfaced accusing U.S. of putting pressure on Riyadh to postpone deal with Houthis and join maritime task force in Red Sea (see Yemen).

Crown Prince met Putin. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 6 Dec met Putin in capital Riyadh to discuss oil, trade, Ukraine, and Israel-Hamas war. Mohammed bin Salman 13 Dec met U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to discuss Gaza crisis.

In escalation in Red Sea, U.S. killed ten Houthi militants attempting to board commercial ship as group’s drones targeted Israel; Yemen’s warring parties agreed steps toward peace process under UN auspices.

U.S. took first military action to rebuff Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. After Houthis in Nov threatened to target any ship travelling to or from Israel unless food and medicine are allowed into Gaza (see Israel-Palestine), Houthi attacks on shipping since 19 Nov reached at least two dozen as of 31 Dec, according to U.S. forces. Notably, Houthi missiles and drones 3, 11, 15, 18 Dec struck ships in Red Sea; Houthis 15 Dec launched drones toward Israeli city Eilat; Egypt next day intercepted suspected Houthi drone off Red Sea coast. International naval presence grew: French navy 9 Dec shot down two alleged Houthi drones; UK navy 15 Dec downed drone; U.S. navy 16 Dec intercepted fourteen drones originating from Houthi-controlled territory and 30 Dec intercepted two missiles targeting container ship. U.S. 19 Dec announced maritime task force to protect shipping; Iran’s defence minister 14 Dec warned task force would face “extraordinary problems”. In significant escalation that may reset rules of engagement, U.S. navy helicopters 31 Dec fired on small boats carrying Houthis attempting to board container ship, killing ten; UK and U.S. vowed more action if necessary, underscoring risk of further hostilities that could broaden Gaza war.

Govt and Houthis committed to steps toward ceasefire and UN-led peace process. UN Envoy Hans Grundberg 23 Dec announced govt and Houthis committed to steps toward ceasefire, including resumption of oil exports, opening of roads in Taiz and easing restrictions on Sanaa airport and Hodeida port, and said parties would work toward roadmap under UN auspices. Announcement came after Houthis and Saudi-led coalition late Nov finalised draft deal addressing humanitarian issues, including Riyadh’s commitment to pay public sector salaries for one year.

In other important developments. U.S. 8 Dec imposed sanctions on thirteen individuals and entities accused of financing Houthis. World Food Programme 5 Dec suspended food aid in Houthi-controlled areas due to limited funding and disagreement with local authorities.

Israel resumed onslaught in Gaza, expanding operations in south as famine loomed, while violence in West Bank worsened; hostilities with Hizbollah escalated, highlighting regional conflict risks.

Israeli assault on Gaza intensified and expanded south, as risk of starvation spread. After seven-day humanitarian pause 1 Dec collapsed, Israel intensified ground operation in Gaza’s north and expanded in south, focusing on Khan Younis city and escalating bombardment, bringing Palestinian death toll since 7 Oct to over 22,000; clashes with Hamas and other militants killed at least 175 Israeli soldiers since start of ground offensive. Gaza authorities late Dec reported Israel had killed 106 Palestinian media workers, marking deadliest conflict for journalists globally. Israeli assault displaced 1.9m amid relentless bombing of hospitals, schools, mosques and churches. Notably, Israeli forces 12 Dec raided Kamal Adwan hospital in north, allegedly crushing dozens of patients and displaced persons with bulldozers; 16 Dec killed two women in Catholic church in Gaza city. Survivors alleged Israel summarily killed civilians, including at UN-run Shadia Abu Ghazala school and in Gaza city. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch 18 Dec accused Israel of using starvation as war tactic. Multi-stakeholder global initiative Integrated Food Security Phase 21 Dec estimated Gaza population at imminent risk of famine. Internationally, U.S. shifted rhetoric, warning Israel against indiscriminate bombing despite continuing to block UN Security Council resolutions for ceasefire.

Talks on hostage exchange resumed. Israeli soldiers 15 Dec mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages in Gaza, increasing pressure on govt to restart hostage negotiations. Israel 19 Dec reportedly offered week-long pause and prisoner release in exchange for 40 hostages; Hamas rejected negotiations without end of bombardment. 

Conditions in West Bank continued deteriorating sharply. Since 7 Oct, Israeli forces and settlers killed over 319 Palestinians, with over 4,500 arrested amid ubiquitous drone strikes and raids. Notably, Israel 14 Dec launched 60-hour operation in Jenin, killing at least twelve.

Border clashes with Hizbollah intensified. Israel expanded targets to residential areas in southern Lebanon. Hizbollah 7 Dec killed Israeli civilian in first non-military casualty since 7 Oct (see Lebanon).

Algiers reiterated commitment to Palestine amid war in Gaza, and relations with Bamako soured over northern Mali rebellion.

Algeria reiterated support for Palestine amid war in Gaza. Jibril Rajoub, secretary general of Palestinian political party Fatah’s central committee, 17 Dec visited Algiers and met with President Tebboune; Rajoub reportedly asked Algeria to help unify different Palestinian factions to constitute national unity govt.

Mali recalled ambassador to Algeria. Amid renewed conflict between Bamako and coalition of mostly Tuareg rebel groups (CMA) in northern Mali, tensions heightened between Mali and Algeria, which has been main mediator in peace efforts. Mali 20 Dec summoned Algeria’s top diplomat accusing Algiers of holding meetings with Tuareg separatists without involving Malian authorities. Algeria next day summoned Malian ambassador urging “all Malian parties to renew commitment to implementation of [2015] agreement on peace and national reconciliation”. Bamako 22 Dec recalled ambassador to Algeria condemning interference in internal affairs.

In other important developments. PM Nadir Larbaoui 10 Dec instructed govt to implement wage increase for civil servants starting next Jan, citing Tebboune’s commitment to improving purchasing power; increase will be third and final stage in process of raising civil servants’ salaries by 47% between 2022 and 2024. International Monetary Fund 14 Dec presented conclusions of visit carried out in Algeria 3-14 Dec, highlighting need to diversify economy in view of threats posed by volatile hydrocarbon price, among others; mission also recommended “gradual fiscal rebalancing to limit expected increase in financing requirements and public debt in medium term”. During Algerian-American military dialogue held 4-6 Dec in Washington, American suppliers of military equipment encouraged Algeria to diversify its suppliers (which are mostly Russian) by turning to American ones.

Election authority announced President Sisi’s re-election by landslide in presidential vote; Cairo accelerated talks for new loan with IMF, and put forward three-step plan for ending war in Gaza.

President Sisi secured third consecutive term in power. Following presidential election held 10-12 Dec, National Elections Authority 18 Dec declared Sisi winner with 89.6% of votes, and turnout highest ever at 66.8%; Alongside threats and intimidation deployed by authorities to make sure voters turned out, Gaza war seems to have had mobilisation effect on voters, who have rallied behind Sisi’s public stance against threat of forced displacement of Gazans and narrative that he is able to provide security and stability to country surrounded by crises.

Govt accelerated talks for new loan with International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF 7 Dec confirmed discussing with Egypt possible increase in loan that Cairo originally secured in 2022. News Agency Bloomberg 20 Dec reported IMF loan would be expanded from $3bn to $6bn; IMF expected to request depreciation of exchange rate as prerequisite to agreement.

Cairo continued to promote ceasefire in Gaza. Egypt maintained mediation efforts amid growing pressure from displaced Gazans crowding Rafah border area. Egyptian security sources 25 Dec said Hamas and allied Islamic Jihad rejected Egyptian proposal that they relinquish power in Gaza Strip in return for permanent ceasefire. Govt 28 Dec confirmed having put forward three-stage proposal to end conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, security forces 16 Dec shot down drone near resort town of Dahab on Red Sea, highlighting security repercussions that Gaza war and Yemen’s Houthi rebels’ attacks on shipping have on Egypt; another “flying object” reportedly shot down 26 Dec off coast of Dahab.

GERD talks ended with failure. Water Resources Ministry 19 Dec said fourth round of direct talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) ended without breakthrough.

UN-led push to convene meeting of five major political stakeholders faced setbacks as disagreements persisted on whether new govt or elections should come first.

UN envoy’s initiative to convene stakeholders’ meeting faced obstacles. UN Special Representative for Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, 18 Dec briefed members of UN Security Council on his latest initiative to convene meeting of Libya’s five main political stakeholders, said all invitees had submitted names of their respective delegations but lamented that “Libyan leaders show no commitment to ending the long-standing stalemate”. Stakeholders have reportedly stated irreconcilable conditions for their participation. Notably, eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR) Speaker Aguila Saleh conditioned attendance to focusing discussions on formation of “new govt for elections” and rejected participation of Tripoli-based PM Abdelhamid Dabaiba on grounds that he is no longer legitimate. Meanwhile, Dabaiba, while ready to discuss outstanding issues in electoral laws, categorically rejected any discussions on “new govt”. Libyan National Army (LNA) chief Khalifa Haftar conditioned Dabaiba’s Govt of National Unity (GNU) participation to inclusion of HoR-appointed govt, or exclusion of both govts.

Drone allegedly targeted Russian military cargo in country’s east. Local media reports suggested drone mid Dec targeted Russian Ilyushin military cargo aircraft in Jufra airbase in central Libya; U.S. Africa Command denied involvement. Cargo plane could have presumably been used to deliver equipment to Haftar or to his allies as Jufra airbase falls under LNA’s authority; base is also known, however, to be transit point for Russian military activity in neighbouring African states. Some foreign analysts suggested strike could be work of Tripoli-based authorities who possess armed drones but whether these have sufficient autonomy to carry out strike in Jufra, some 500 kilometres from capital, is unclear.

In other important developments. UN Mission 21 Dec expressed concern over death in custody of former Defence Minister Al-Mahdi al-Barghathi after authorities in Oct arrested him in Benghazi city, demanded independent investigation. Presidency Council early Dec expressed concern after Niger in Nov repelled law that criminalised transportation of irregular migrants to neighbouring Libya and Algeria for onward travel to Europe, while GNU reportedly appealed for urgent EU support to secure country’s southern border.

Local elections recorded low voter turnout amid boycott by parties across political spectrum; repression of govt critics continued.

Local council elections underscored voter disaffection. First round of local elections, which will determine composition of second chamber of parliament, took place 24 Dec; some 150 intellectual and political figures mid Dec signed petition calling for election boycott, saying vote would participate in “consolidation of the system of repression and oppression”. Election Commission 27 Dec placed turnout at 11.84%, highlighting high level of voter disaffection; second round scheduled for Feb 2024.

Crackdown on businessmen and journalists continued. Authorities 12 Dec issued arrest warrant against Adel Grar, former managing director of Al Karama Holding (responsible for sale of companies confiscated during 2010-2011 revolution), for allegedly using his position to obtain unjustified advantage and improperly disposing of public or private funds. Police 28 Dec arrested journalist Zied el-Hani and judge later issued arrest warrant against him for defamation against trade minister. Opposition Free Destourian Party mid Dec said authorities banned demonstration in support of party president Abir Moussi, who has been in detention since 3 Oct following scuffle with staff of president’s palace.

In other important developments. Shortages of basic commodities persisted, leading to tense scenes in queues, filmed and broadcast on social networks. Notably, Tunis region 7 Dec ran out of fuel for several days due to delayed delivery by tanker, and many bakeries around Tunis mid Dec were unable to make bread due to shortage of flour. Meanwhile, interior ministry said National Guard and military personnel 27 Dec killed three “terrorists” in mountainous area of Kasserine near Algerian border.

In renewed effort for Western Sahara conflict resolution, U.S. administration dispatched key North Africa diplomat to conduct new round of consultations with Algeria and Morocco.

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for North Africa, Joshua Harris, 7 Dec met with Algerian FM Ahmed Attaf in capital Algiers, and 17 Dec met with Moroccan FM Nasser Bourita in capital Rabat. Washington’s engagement with both Algeria and Morocco is part of U.S. efforts to take more balanced stance on Western Sahara dispute in context where regional repercussions of Gaza war increase risk of escalation.