Moscow sees itself as having embarked upon a broad confrontation with Western powers aimed at reshaping the global order. Its continuing war in Ukraine is thus meant both to subjugate that country and assert and cement Russia’s place in Europe and the world. Russia’s global diplomacy, meanwhile, also aims to increase Moscow’s influence and underline its great power status. Crisis Group reports on developments in the war in Ukraine, domestic processes in Russia, and Russia’s relations with its neighbours and countries around the world. In its advocacy, Crisis Group encourages policies that can lead to more sustainable peace in Ukraine, Europe, and all of the conflicts in which Russia is engaged.
The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
Dagestan witnessed deadly terrorist attack, while Putin issued maximalist ceasefire demands to Ukraine and threatened reprisals after U.S. allowed Kyiv to use its weapons on Russian soil to defend Kharkiv region.
Terrorist attack in Dagestan left at least 21 dead. Gunmen 23 June targeted Orthodox churches, synagogue and police post in two cities in impoverished Dagestan region, killing at least 21, including priest and 16 police officers; five gunmen were also killed. No group claimed responsibility for violence, which came three months after ISIS carried out deadly attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow. UN human rights experts 27 June urged authorities to address issues that help fuel “extremist ideologies”, including “strengthening rule of law, tackling impunity for past and present human rights violations (and) addressing socioeconomic inequalities” in region.
President Putin issued ceasefire demands to Ukraine. Putin 14 June promised to order “immediate” ceasefire and talks if Kyiv withdrew troops from four regions annexed by Russia in 2022 (comprising fifth of Ukraine’s territory) and abandoned plans to join NATO; other demands included ‘denazification’ and lifting of Western sanctions. Kyiv same day dismissed conditions as “absurd”. Meanwhile, Putin continued campaign to delegitimise Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, 7 June claiming he “usurped” power and that Moscow will only negotiate with Ukraine’s legislature.
U.S. allowed Kyiv to use its weapons on Russian soil to defend Kharkiv. Drone attacks targeting key infrastructure in Russia occurred almost daily. Meanwhile, Ukraine began using U.S.-supplied weapons to strike Russian borderlands after U.S. President Biden loosened restrictions for defence of Kharkiv region late May (see Ukraine); Washington still prohibits use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles on Russian territory. Putin 5 June threatened “asymmetric response”.
West imposed more sanctions on Russia as Putin strengthened alliances. U.S. Treasury 12 June announced sweeping secondary sanctions on third parties supporting Russia’s war economy; EU 24 June adopted 14th sanctions package. Meanwhile, Putin 14 June called for creation of ‘Eurasian security architecture’, claiming that “Euro-Atlantic Security system” was collapsing; 19 June signed defence pact with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (see Korean Peninsula); and 19-20 June strengthened ties with Vietnam.
[Russia and Vietnam] were once on the same side of history, they shared the same ideology against Western capitalism and imperialism. And the legacy of shared ideology is...
Russian weapons and facilities are under solid control and there’s no evidence that Wagner or anyone else is looking to capture them.
If Russian soldiers feel their commanders are not in control, their trenches will be much easier to take for advancing Ukrainian troops.
I think they [the Kremlin] will use this [Biden's Kyiv trip] to repeat the line that this is a conflict between Russia and the West, not between Russia and Ukraine.
Russian engagement in the Sahel is very low-cost [financially]. It is distracting the West and diminishing the West’s symbolic power.
Moscow also has leverage over Türkiye in other conflict zones such as Syria and the South Caucasus, as well as a vested interest in driving a wedge between Turkey and its...
This week on Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon, Ibraheem Bahiss and Olga Oliker to discuss the ISIS-claimed attack on a music venue in a Moscow suburb, the global threat ISIS and its affiliates pose and what the strike might mean for Russia and the war in Ukraine.
ISIS has claimed the lethal assault on a music venue outside the Russian capital. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Jerome Drevon explores the various implications of this attack.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk to Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, about Russia’s response to the war in Gaza, its engagement with Middle Eastern countries and prospects for regional arms control.
Crisis Group's Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker and Senior Russia analyst Oleg Ignatov discuss the aftermath of the mutiny in Russia and what the future holds for the group.
On 24 June, President Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge in over two decades at Russia’s helm: a mutiny by a mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explore the implications for Putin’s rule and Russian foreign policy.
This week, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Jean-Hervé Jezequel and Richard Gowan about Wagner’s mutiny in Russia, what it means for the Ukraine war and for places in Africa where Wagner operates – particularly Mali, where the government’s ties to Wagner have informed its recent demand that UN peacekeepers leave.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts discuss the implications of the Wagner rebellion for Putin’s rule, the war in Ukraine, Russian foreign politics and the country’s power projections abroad.
In this Twitter Space, Crisis Group experts explore about the need for and purpose of a tribunal on the crime of aggression.
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