Ruling party CNDD-FDD leader incited violence against dissenting voices, while hundreds of Burundian soldiers officially deployed to DR Congo. Ruling party CNDD-FDD Sec Gen Révérien Ndikuriyo 2 Aug sanctioned killing anyone who “disrupts” national security as “legitimate”, urged CNDD-FDD youth wing Imbonerakure to continue night patrols. Imbonerakure continued to intimidate and harass population, in particular members of political opposition, in general climate of impunity. Notably, Imbonerakure elements 8 Aug killed one Rwandan national en route to visit Burundian family in Mugina commune, Cibitoke province; 13 Aug severely battered two members of main opposition party National Congress for Freedom (CNL) in Gashoho commune, Muyinga province. Fuel shortages in Aug impacted economic activities in major cities, notably economic capital Bujumbura, and heavily affected public transportation systems. After months of denial by Gitega and Kinshasa of any presence of Burundian army in DR Congo amid reports of Burundian forces fighting RED-Tabara rebels in South Kivu province, 600 Burundian troops 15 Aug officially crossed border into South Kivu; military authorities in South Kivu mid-Aug suggested Burundian contingent deployed as part of East African Community’s regional force agreed upon in April to thwart armed group violence in eastern DR Congo; Burundian military 26 Aug however said deployment is part of bilateral agreement between Congolese and Burundian authorities.

Govt forces and Anglophone rebels continued to clash amid resurgence of roadside bombs; jihadists continued attacks in Far North. In North West (NW) region, Anglophone separatist group 9 Aug reportedly lost four men in failed attack in Oku subdivision, and killed two gendarmes in Ndop subdivision; 10 Aug killed gendarmerie commander of Kumbo town (Bui division). Separatists 27 Aug killed two soldiers and one civilian near Nkwambe town (Donga-Mantung division), next day attacked govt forces in areas of Bafut (Mezam division), Dzekwa (Bui division) and South West region’s Eyumojock (Manyu division) using roadside bomb and a rocket-propelled grenade; three soldiers reportedly killed. Some separatist groups in Aug issued orders aiming to move reopening of schools from 5 Sept to 4 Oct in Anglophone regions to observe pro-independence protest anniversaries and mount pressure on govt for talks. Defence ministry 29 Aug said security will be stepped up ahead of school resumption to avoid disruptions. Ethnic tensions in Aug remained high in Wum town, Menchum division (NW) following late-July violent confrontations between Fulani and Aghem ethnic groups. Meanwhile, fresh attack confirmed separatists’ strategy of moving war into Francophone regions: suspected separatists 13 Aug crossed from Bui division into Noun division in West region, killing three including one civilian. Authorities 11 Aug arrested prominent advocate of Anglophone regions’ autonomy, Abdul Karim Ali, on undisclosed charges in Bamenda city (NW). NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) same day accused govt forces of summarily killing at least ten people and carrying out series of other human rights abuses in Anglophone regions between 24 April and 12 June; military next day dismissed allegations, claiming to protect country with “honour and loyalty”. Jihadist insurgency continued in Far North region. In Mayo-Sava division, Boko Haram (BH) insurgents 6 Aug killed one soldier and one civilian in Gogolom village, same day killed three more civilians in Kolofata commune. In Mayo-Tsanaga division, BH 9 Aug killed one soldier in Zeleved village, and 13-14 Aug killed two civilians in Tourou locality. Authorities 14 Aug arrested one gendarme at undisclosed location in Far North over accusations of supplying BH with weapons and ammunition.

Rebels kept up operations in rural areas and President Touadéra continued to move toward constitutional revision despite opposition. Rebels maintained attacks in hinterland despite govt forces and allies’ operations. In Ouham prefecture, presumed Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) elements 1 Aug killed three civilians and one gendarme travelling between Kabo and Moyenne-Sido localities; 6 Aug killed one soldier and injured another in Lady village. CPC-affiliated rebel group 3R 2-3 Aug launched attacks in Nana-Mambéré prefecture, killing six villagers near Baboua town. In Bamingui-Bangoran prefecture, govt 8 Aug imposed night curfew in Ndélé town, fearing attack by CPC rebels coming from Nda town, 300km away in Vakaga prefecture; govt and Russian forces 15 Aug carried out joint operation in Nda after CPC elements were reported heading toward Ndélé. In Haute-Kotto prefecture, Rwandan peacekeepers 14 Aug arrived in Sam-Ouandja town, demanded CPC elements leave within 48 hours; rebels did not comply but no incidents reported. Govt troops 11 and 15 Aug arrested 30 people suspected of cooperating with rebels in Haute-Kotto’s capital Bria. Meanwhile, tensions persisted over Touadéra’s proposed constitutional revision, which could allow him to run for third term in next presidential election. Over 1,000 govt supporters 6 Aug demonstrated in capital Bangui in favour of constitutional referendum; pro-govt gatherings also reported in other cities. Constitutional Court 8 Aug rejected opposition’s petition against draft law on constitutional change, which govt adopted in July. In address to nation, Touadéra 12 Aug announced constitutional referendum, invoking “people’s aspirations”; 26 Aug signed decree setting up committee to draft new constitution, made up of 53 members mostly from ruling party. In response, Republican Bloc coalition of opposition parties and civil society organisations next day gathered hundreds in capital Bangui to denounce Touadéra’s “manipulation” and slide toward “dictatorship”; 31 Aug lodged petition with Constitutional Court against decree.

Transitional authorities signed peace deal with armed groups in Qatar, national dialogue kicked off to immediate delays, and intercommunal conflict flared in south. In Qatar’s capital Doha, Transitional Military Council (CMT) President Mahamat Idriss Déby 8 Aug signed peace deal with dozens of armed groups, whose representatives 13 Aug returned to Chad to participate in upcoming dialogue. Prominent rebel group Front pour l’Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad (FACT) and several others however rejected deal, saying it overlooked their main requests, including adequate representation in national dialogue and political prisoners’ release. Rebel group Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic, which did not sign Doha agreement, 27 Aug claimed killing ten soldiers in northern Tibesti region’s Wouri district, which govt dismissed as “fake news”. Political tensions ran high in lead-up to national dialogue. After PM Albert Pahimi Padacké 4 Aug signed executive order fixing participation quotas, so-called “Harmonisation Committee” gathering civil society groups and political parties taking part in dialogue 8 Aug denounced authorities’ “monopoly” over process, with 1,220 delegates out of 1,360 reportedly stemming from ruling party. Déby 17 Aug signed decree making dialogue conclusions binding and preventing modifications by CMT; decree however failed to declare CMT members ineligible for next elections. National dialogue kicked off 20 Aug, but negotiations delayed by a few days for “technical” reasons. Harmonisation Committee delegates withdrew following 28 Aug presentation of dialogue’s presidium, prompting dialogue president 31 Aug to create ad hoc committee charged with “reinforcing inclusivity”. Behind-the-scenes negotiations to pave way for participation of non-signatory armed groups and some civil society and opposition actors (who boycott process) reportedly ongoing late Aug. Meanwhile, Boko Haram attack in Dabantchali locality (Lac region) 2 Aug allegedly killed two soldiers; ten militants also killed. Herder-farmer conflict continued in south. Nomadic herders and local farmers 7 Aug clashed in Kabbia department (Mayo-Kebbi East region), reportedly leaving many dead. Herder-farmer clashes 9 Aug also killed 13 people in Djongol locality (Guéra region), and 19 Aug killed nine people near Mengalang village (Logone Oriental region). Cattle-related violence 3 Aug also reportedly killed 27 people along Chad-Sudan border in east.

Amid widespread armed group violence in eastern provinces, hundreds of detainees released in jailbreak, while Burundi officially deployed troops. In North Kivu province, alleged Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels supported by local militiamen 9-10 Aug stormed Butembo central prison, freeing at least 800 detainees; authorities 11 Aug reported two policemen killed during raid, and claimed to have recaptured 250 fugitives. Youths in Butembo city 12 Aug demonstrated to denounce police force’s inability to provide security; armed protesters fired at police, leaving four policemen dead. After UN mission (MONUSCO) left Butembo base following deadly anti-MONUSCO protests in July, clashes 23 Aug erupted at deserted base between army and suspected Mai-Mai militia, leaving two militiamen dead. Suspected ADF combatants 25-30 Aug reportedly attacked six villages in North Kivu’s Beni territory and neighbouring Irumu territory in Ituri province, leaving at least 54 people dead, while many others were kidnapped. In Ituri’s Djugu territory, ethnic Hema “Zaire” militiamen 5 Aug killed at least 22 people in Damas village; in retaliation, ethnic Lendu militiamen from Cooperative for the Development of Congo (CODECO) 7 Aug attacked several Hema villages in Djugu, leaving seven Zaire militiamen dead and taking at least 20 people hostage. Also in Djugu, militiamen from CODECO 11 and 16 Aug attacked mining sites, leaving a least 20 people killed; 28 Aug reportedly killed at least six gold miners in Lodjo locality. Meanwhile, in confidential report leaked 4 Aug, UN experts said there was “solid evidence” that Rwandan troops have conducted military operations in eastern DR Congo in support of M23 rebels since Nov 2021 (see Rwanda); during African tour, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 11 Aug said Rwandan President Kagame and Congolese President Tshisekedi had agreed to hold direct talks. Clashes between Congolese forces and M23 rebels 16 Aug broke out in several villages of North Kivu’s Rutshuru territory; group notably targeted Rwanguba hydroelectric power plant site. After months of denial from Kinshasa and Gitega of any Burundian army presence in DR Congo, Burundian soldiers 15 Aug officially crossed into South Kivu province as part of bilateral agreement between the two countries (see Burundi).

UN experts found “solid evidence” of Rwandan military intervention in DR Congo. In confidential report leaked to the media on 4 Aug, UN experts said there was “solid evidence” that Rwandan troops have conducted military operations in eastern DR Congo in support of M23 rebels since Nov 2021. Kigali immediately denied accusations, while Kinshasa 5 Aug demanded Kigali take “responsibility for the instability” in eastern DR Congo. During visit to region, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 11 Aug met with President Kagame in capital Kigali and discussed “credible reports” indicating that Rwanda continues to support M23 rebels; Blinken same day said Kagame and Congolese President Tshisekedi had agreed to hold direct talks over fighting in eastern DR Congo.

Amid renewed Tigray conflict in neighbouring Ethiopia, threat of fresh clashes between govt troops and Tigray forces along Eritrea-Ethiopia border loomed large. Situation highly volatile late Aug at border with Ethiopia’s Tigray region amid resumption of hostilities between Ethiopia’s federal govt and Tigray (see Ethiopia). Notably, senior Tigray official Getachew Reda 31 Aug accused Ethiopia’s federal govt of sending “tens of thousands of troops to Eritrea”, while Addis Ababa same day accused Tigray’s forces of expanding fight to multiple fronts. Previously, after apparent failure of Asmara’s efforts since April to ally with Khartoum, Asmara’s attempts to forge ties with Sudanese subnational actors faced headwinds. After authorities invited high-profile delegation from eastern Sudan, including rebel group leaders who stayed out of 2020 Juba Peace Agreement, to participate in President Isaias Afwerki-sponsored forum on eastern Sudan’s insecurity, Sudanese border police 4 Aug reportedly prevented around 112 delegates from entering Eritrea at Laffa border crossing in Kassala state, citing lack of entry visas; Eritrea has long wielded influence in region, given geographical proximity and potential impact of eastern Sudan’s political and security dynamics on Eritrea’s national security. Meanwhile, foreign ministry 3 Aug criticised U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, accusing Washington of “provocative” attempt to contain China and “deplorable” violation of “norms and provisions of state sovereignty”.

Deputy President William Ruto declared president-elect as runner-up Raila Odinga submitted challenge to court. Kenyans 9 Aug voted in mostly peaceful general elections. Police however reported ten incidents on election day. Most notably, Kimilili MP shot and killed aide of rival candidate at polling station in Bungoma county, and unidentified assailants attacked police vehicle carrying election material in Wajir county, leaving two injured. Gunmen also held several people hostage in tallying centre in Wajir, injuring one. Electoral commission agent, who went missing 11 Aug, found dead 15 Aug just outside capital Nairobi. Election was marked by unusually low voter turnout at 65%; election observation missions, including from East African Community, in following days lauded polls as largely free and fair. Electoral commission 15 Aug declared Deputy President and leader of United Democratic Alliance William Ruto president-elect with 50.49% of votes, ahead of Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga with 48.85%. Four of seven electoral commissioners, including Vice Chairperson Juliana Cherera, same day disowned results alleging “opaque” tallying process, while some protests erupted in Odinga strongholds, notably Kisumu city and Nairobi’s Kibera neighbourhood, with angry supporters throwing stones and blocking roads. Odinga 16 Aug rejected result and announced he would pursue “all legal options” to challenge it; 22 Aug filed petition at Supreme Court, and in following days said he will respect court’s ruling, expected by 5 Sept. Elections in eight electoral areas, including gubernatorial races in Mombasa and Kakamega, held 29 Aug after being suspended due to ballot mix-ups on 9 Aug. Meanwhile, police 1 Aug killed four armed robbers in Lokwar village, Turkana county, after they allegedly attacked village in attempt to steal cattle. Suspected Al-Shabaab militants 4 Aug reportedly injured five police officers at Bamba Ola area in Mandera county. Al-Shabaab 27 Aug issued threat against Kenya saying it would continue attacks until Kenyan troops leave Somalia.

Al-Shabaab killed over 20 in first major assault in capital Mogadishu since President Mohamud returned to power; emerging political dispute in South West and Jubaland states could provide early test for Mohamud to prevent discord with federal member states. Al-Shabaab militants 19 Aug launched complex attack on Hayat Hotel in Mogadishu, killing at least 21 during 30-hour siege; Mohamud in following hours declared “all-out war” against group. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab’s late July incursion into Ethiopia brought about swift reaction to stymie movement. Ethiopian airstrikes 29 July-7 Aug targeted multiple locations in Somalia for first time in years, and Ethiopian troops early Aug reportedly deployed around Doolow town in Gedo region to prevent militants from crossing over into Ethiopia. Ethiopian military officials around 2 Aug also visited Beledweyne and Baidoa cities for security discussions with Somali actors. Govt forces operation targeting Al-Shabaab in Mataban and Mahas districts of Hiraan region also picked up in Aug, supported by U.S. airstrikes that killed at least 17 militants 9 and 14 Aug. Govt forces 15 Aug said they captured group’s stronghold outside Mahas town in Hiraan. On political front, PM Hamza Barre 2 Aug unveiled 75-member cabinet, with most members belonging to Mohamud’s Union for Peace and Development Party. In line with Mohamud’s determination to combat Al-Shabaab beyond military means, former top Al-Shabaab leader Mukhtar Robow was appointed religion minister. Parliament 7 Aug approved cabinet as Al-Shabaab fired mortar shells near govt complex in Mogadishu. State-level term extensions likely to form early challenge for Mohamud’s govt. In South West state, President Abdiaziz Lafta-Gareen, who argues state parliament extended his term by one year until Dec 2023 in order to align with its own elections, faced growing opposition; several prominent politicians in July formed new grouping, South West Salvation Council, to oppose term extension and demand elections in Dec 2022. Jubaland’s parliament 21 Aug also extended its administration by one year, pushing prospective elections back from Aug 2023 to Aug 2024. Mohamud 25-29 Aug travelled to Puntland state’s capital Garowe for discussions with Puntland leadership about its relations with federal govt.

Signatories of 2018 peace deal approved roadmap to extend transitional govt’s rule beyond Feb 2023 amid fierce criticism; deadly fighting displaced tens of thousands in Jonglei and Upper Nile states. Signatories of 2018 peace deal 4 Aug signed roadmap further extending transitional period beyond its anticipated Feb 2023 end; extension provides additional 24 months for transitional govt to address outstanding tasks of agreement, with elections to take place in Dec 2024 and transfer of power in Feb 2025. Troika (U.S., UK and Norway) 3 Aug denounced move citing lack of “inclusive consultation” with “all relevant parties”. Non-signatory armed groups, other opposition movements and civil society actors including People’s Coalition for Civil Action 6 Aug created joint platform to oppose transitional govt and “categorically” rejected term extension. Despite criticism, Council of Ministers 5 Aug approved roadmap and submitted it to parliament for approval. Meanwhile, nearly 22,000 troops from former rival groups 30 Aug integrated into unified armed forces; integration of first batch of former rebels originally scheduled to take place in 2019 according to peace deal. Violence continued in Mayom county, Unity state, as nascent rebellion of Gen. Stephen Buay faced security operations along Sudan’s border. Notably, alleged govt forces 7 Aug reportedly executed four of Buay’s men after Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces same day arrested them in Sudan’s al-Fula town and handed them over to South Sudanese authorities. Defence Minister Angelina Teny 9 Aug condemned executions and said investigations were under way. Meanwhile, Kitgwang faction – which broke away from VP Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) – continued to face internal challenges. Kitgwang leader, ethnic Nuer Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual, 9 Aug removed ethnic Shilluk Gen. Johnson Olony as his deputy. Clashes between Gatwech- and Olony-aligned groups 14-15 Aug broke out in Tonga town and neighbouring Panyikang county, Upper Nile state. Fighting by 18 Aug spread to Jonglei state as Olony’s reinforcements clashed with SPLM/A-IO in Diel military base (Pigi county), before advancing to New Fangak county. UN humanitarian office 19 Aug reported that fighting had displaced around 27,000 people since 14 Aug.

Amid ongoing anti-coup protests, impasse between military and civilian actors persisted; violence persisted in Darfur, and tensions with Addis Ababa ran high amid renewed Tigray conflict in Ethiopia. Civilian actors in Aug failed to agree on path forward after de facto head of state, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in July said army will step aside to make way for civilian govt. Meanwhile, al-Burhan-backed Sudan People’s Call initiative, led by religious Sufi leader Al-Tayeb Al-Jid, 13-14 Aug held roundtable conference gathering political figures affiliated with former ruling National Congress Party, as well as Egyptian, Saudi and African Union diplomats; political coalition Forces for Freedom and Change and grassroots network Resistance Committees boycotted event. Participants recommended would-be established Supreme Military Council (announced by al-Burhan in July) be given supreme authority, including sovereign powers, with technocratic cabinet assuming executive duties. Al-Burhan 25 Aug announced major reshuffling of military leadership. Anti-coup protests continued throughout month. Notably, security forces 6-7 Aug injured 23 protesters in capital Khartoum and twin city Omdurman; 25 Aug reportedly injured 18 and arrested at least 38 in Khartoum; 31 Aug killed one during protest march headed for Khartoum. Meanwhile, govt said Chadian gunmen 3-4 Aug killed 18 Sudanese herders in Beir Saliba and Ardeiba border towns, West Darfur state; Chadian military 6 Aug expressed regret, claimed nine Chadians also killed (see Chad). In North Darfur state, gunmen 15 Aug reportedly killed at least eight, kidnapped nine near Kutum town, allegedly in retaliation for killing of two in same area. Tensions increased with Addis Ababa amid renewed Tigray conflict in Ethiopia (see Ethiopia). Ethiopia’s forces 24 Aug claimed to have downed plane from Sudan carrying weapons for Tigray’s forces; Ethiopian ambassador to Sudan 29 Aug said Khartoum had “violated Ethiopian airspace”, prompting foreign ministry 31 Aug to summon ambassador. Addis Ababa 31 Aug accused Tigray forces of expanding fighting to new areas, notably border with Sudan, raising fears of conflict spilling into country.

Opposition parties joined forces against President Museveni, and latter conducted several security sector changes. Cooperation agreement signed in July between ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and opposition Democratic Party (DP), and subsequent appointment of DP leader Norbert Mao as justice minister, prompted backlash. Four opposition parties – National Unity Party, Forum for Democratic Change, Justice Forum and People’s Progressive Party – and pressure group People’s Front for Transition of four-time presidential candidate Kizza Besigye 1 Aug signed their own alliance, vowing to join forces in general elections set for 2026. Amid opposition to Mao-Museveni alliance from within DP, police 16 Aug arrested eight party members, including one MP, for allegedly storming party headquarters in capital Kampala. Meanwhile, in rare move, Museveni 4 Aug promoted over 770 senior police officers in possible acknowledgment of police forces’ key role in holding out against anti-govt protests; same day replaced commander of presidential guard after only seven months in office, along with other changes; and 18 Aug undertook major military reshuffle, including appointing senior officers into army’s reserve forces and foreign service. In Northern region, Adilang sub-county authorities 23 Aug said attacks by suspected Karimojong cattle rustlers in Agago district over past week killed three people and forced 200 families to flee. Following deadly shooting by UN peacekeeping troops at Uganda-DR Congo border post in late July, police early Aug announced deployment of standby force to border with DR Congo to monitor tensions. Ugandan and South Sudanese militaries 6-7 Aug signed agreement to share intelligence on South Sudan rebels alleged to be hiding in Uganda and Uganda rebels alleged to be operating in South Sudan.

Political tensions heated up months away from 2023 general elections as nomination fees sparked resistance, while ruling party supporters unleashed violence on political opposition. Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) around 19 Aug imposed hefty nomination fees to contesting candidates in 2023 general elections, with presidential candidates called to part with $20,000 each, up from $1,000 paid in 2018. ZEC also introduced exorbitant fees to access voters’ roll. Main opposition party Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) lawmaker, Tendai Biti, 20 Aug accused elections management body of working in cahoots with ruling party Zanu-PF to shut democratic space ahead of elections, called for street protests to demand reversal of exclusionary tariffs. Suspected Zanu-PF supporters around 23-24 Aug unleashed violence on CCC members, reportedly abducting one of them, in Mashonaland East province’s Wedza and Seke districts as part of efforts to prevent CCC leader, Nelson Chamisa, from addressing his supporters. Ahead of 27 Aug parliamentary by-election for Gokwe-Kabuyuni parliamentary seat (Midlands province), alleged Zanu-PF supporters 25 Aug attacked CCC team during campaign rally in Gokwe area, wounding 13; also assaulted and seriously injured four journalists covering CCC campaign rally. CCC Deputy Chairman and lawmaker Job Sikhala denied bail 30 Aug for fifth time since being detained in June on charges of inciting violence.

Govt forces increasingly targeted civilians as insecurity remained widespread despite notable reduction in violence in Sahel region. Military committed numerous abuses against civilians, notably ethnic Fulanis. Drone strike in Pognoa Sankoado village (East region) 1 Aug reportedly killed 37 residents; army in following days admitted to accidentally killing civilians in area. Soldiers 4 Aug allegedly arrested and summarily executed 14 civilians in Guilyende village (also East), and 8 Aug executed over 40 Fulani civilians in Tougouri locality (Centre-North region). Govt denied involvement in these killings and 18 Aug condemned calls circulating on social media for ethnic cleansing of Fulani community. In East region, govt-backed vigilantes (VDPs) 10 Aug routed attack by presumed al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) combatants near Otatougou village, killing 11 including one JNIM commander; unidentified gunmen 26 Aug killed at least seven civilians in attack on convoy coming from Boungou gold mine. In Centre-North region, presumed JNIM 4 Aug launched simultaneous attacks in several areas of Bam province, killing four soldiers and nine VDPs; govt forces allegedly killed 34 militants. Also in Bam, explosive device attack 9 Aug killed 15 soldiers near Namssiguia town. Amid lull in violence in Sahel region, jihadists continued to plant explosive devices in attempt to tighten their stranglehold around population centres, notably killing two soldiers in Djamana village 12 Aug. Insecurity increased marginally in North and Boucle du Mouhoun regions further west. Military-civilian convoy 4 Aug hit explosive device between towns of Gomboro (Boucle du Mouhoun) and Zogore (North), leaving three civilians dead. Suspected jihadists 8 Aug killed at least ten, including civilians and VDPs, in Sima village in North region’s Yatenga province. Govt sought to adjust response to insecurity amid public discontent as police 12 Aug dispersed anti-French demonstration in capital Ouagadougou with teargas. After transitional president, Lt-Col. Damiba, 1 Aug held National Defence Supreme Council meeting, Defence Minister Brig. Gen. Aimé Barthélémy Simporé 12 Aug announced military forces would undergo territorial reorganisation to better combat jihadists. Govt 6 Aug dismissed report from daily newspaper Aujourd’hui au Faso that it had agreed to 24-month ceasefire with jihadists.

President Ouattara pardoned former President Gbagbo as part of national reconciliation drive; negotiations for release of Ivorian soldiers held in Mali remained stalled. On occasion of Independence Day, Ouattara 7 Aug pardoned former head of state Gbagbo, who faced 20-year jail term over 2011 “robbery” of funds from country’s branch of Central Bank of West African States in economic capital Abidjan. Gbagbo’s party immediately rejected pardon and called for blanket amnesty for all party members convicted in aftermath of 2010-2011 post-electoral crisis, including Gbagbo – which would open the way for him to run for president in 2025 election. Meanwhile, Franco-Ivorian banker and former Minister Tidjane Thiam, 8 Aug returned to Côte d’Ivoire after more than 20 years in exile; Thiam, who fled in 2000 following coup d’état against then-President Bédié, likely harbours presidential ambitions and could be appealing candidate to the youth. Efforts continued to obtain release of 49 Ivorian soldiers who were detained in July upon arrival in Mali to work for UN mission (MINUSMA) contractor. UN Deputy Sec-Gen Amina Mohamed and UN Special Envoy for West Africa Mahamat Saleh Annadif 9 Aug arrived in Côte d’Ivoire to discuss mediation efforts with Ouattara, then went to Mali to discuss matter with military transition’s President Goïta. After holding soldiers for over four weeks, Bamako 12 Aug charged them with undermining state security. Ivorian Army Chief of Staff Gen Lassina Doumbia 25 Aug said “negotiations are continuing” for soldiers’ release.

Under mounting street pressure and lack of agreement with regional body ECOWAS over transition’s duration, ruling junta dissolved main opposition coalition, replaced PM and revamped cabinet. Following several anti-junta protests since June, Justice Minister Charles Wright 2 Aug directed public prosecutor’s office to begin legal proceedings against coalition of political parties, trade unions and civil society groups, National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC), on charges of “defamation”, “dissemination of false information likely to endanger public peace and security”, and “complicity of murder”. Interim govt 6 Aug dissolved FNDC by decree, citing threat to “national unity, public peace and cohabitation”. Despite regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 15 Aug dispatching official to meet with FNDC in effort to appease tensions, some clashes 17 Aug erupted between law enforcement and youths on outskirts of capital Conakry, reportedly leaving two dead, a few dozen injured or arrested. ECOWAS-appointed mediator, Benin’s former President Boni Yayi, 21-27 Aug visited capital Conakry to rekindle negotiations with junta leaders on transition’s duration and facilitate political dialogue between junta, political parties and civil society; upon departure, Boni said parties will continue discussions “in order to agree on a timetable and content for the transition that is accepted by all”. At ECOWAS’ request, FNDC 26 Aug reportedly suspended protests scheduled in Conakry for 29 Aug and 4 Sept, but maintained nationwide demonstration planned on 5 Sept. Meanwhile, PM Mohamed Béavogui, who has been in Italy since mid-July, 12 Aug said he would return to Guinea once his medical condition improves. Amid rumours that his absence stems from disagreements with interim President Col Doumbouya over transition timeline, latter 20 Aug appointed acting PM Bernard Gomou to permanently fill PM position as Béavogui’s replacement. Doumbouya same day also reshuffled cabinet ahead of first anniversary of 5 Sept putsch that overthrew former President Condé.

Jihadists launched deadliest attack on military since 2019 and continued southward expansion; govt met with northern armed groups to discuss stalled implementation of 2015 peace accord; and relations with UN mission and France remained tense. Jihadist violence continued in north and centre. In north, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) militants 7 Aug attacked Tessit town (Gao region), killing 42 soldiers in deadliest attack on military since 2019; 37 militants also killed. In Ménaka region, ISGS 7-8 Aug killed 20 Tuareg civilians near Tahabanat village, 12 Aug killed another 20 people in Assaylal village. In centre, suspected al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) militants 5 Aug killed 12 civilians in Bankass circle (Bandiagara region). In Sikasso region (south), suspected JNIM fighters 7 Aug killed five police officers and kidnapped at least one other in complex ambush involving explosive device near Karangana town. Amid stalled implementation of 2015 Algiers Peace Accord, govt 1-5 Aug met signatory groups’ leaders, announced agreement on number of ex-combatants to be integrated into regular forces; signatory alliance of rebel groups Coordination of Azawad Movements however citicised agreement’s lack of clarity regarding role of armed group leaders in future integrated units. Interim President Col. Goïta around 22 Aug appointed another colonel, Abdoulaye Maiga, to act as PM in absence of civilian PM Choguel Maïga. Tensions continued to run high with UN mission (MINUSMA) and France. Germany (largest Western troop provider to MINUSMA) 12 Aug announced suspension of its military mission in country after Bamako in July suspended MINUSMA troop rotations. Govt next day announced resumption of MINUSMA troop rotations under new procedures, prompting Germany to resume military flights to Mali on 18 Aug. Attorney general 14 Aug charged 49 Ivorian soldiers arrested in July – upon arrival to work for MINUSMA contractor – with “attempting to undermine state security” (see Côte d’Ivoire). In 15 Aug letter to UN Security Council, FM Abdoulaye Diop called for emergency UN Security Council meeting to stop French “acts of aggression”, including alleged espionage, and accused France of supporting jihadists; last soldiers belonging to French Operation Barkhane same day left country.

French Operation Barkhane completed relocation to Niger amid domestic opposition and persistent jihadist violence in southern regions. Insecurity continued to plague south. In Tillabery region in south west, al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) 1 Aug killed three civilians in Garbougna village (Gothèye department). Govt forces week of 4 Aug killed eight JNIM fighters near Samira mine (also Gothèye). Explosive device allegedly planted by JNIM militants 11 Aug killed two civilians near Bougoum town (Niamey capital region). In nearby Tahoua region, security forces week of 4 Aug killed four suspected Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) fighters near Tabatol locality (Tillia department). In Diffa region in south east, Multinational Joint Task Force troops week of 10 Aug arrested three suspected Boko Haram splinter Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) members in Toumour locality (Diffa department); JAS militants 12 Aug attacked civilian vehicles near Garin N’Gawaye town (N’Guigmi department), killing two and abducting 22. French Operation Barkhane 15 Aug completed relocation from Mali to Niger amid widespread domestic criticism. New anti-French coalition of 15 civil society organisations, M62, created 3 Aug; after Niamey authorities banned M62 protest scheduled for 17 Aug against rising fuel prices and French relocation, coalition vowed to organise “peaceful march for dignity” on 18 Sept. Former President Mahamane Ousmane’s opposition party 11 Aug denounced Barkhane redeployment to Niger, as well as country’s security and economic situation. In apparent response to rising pressure, President Bazoum 2 Aug called for greater unity against jihadists, 5 Aug met with opposition leader Tahirou Saidou in rare political move. Govt worked to bolster security apparatus: after cabinet late July extended state of emergency in parts of Tillabery, Tahoua and Diffa regions, defence minister 1 Aug announced plans to increase size of military from 33,000 to 100,000 troops by 2030.

Authorities beefed up security in federal capital Abuja and economic capital Lagos as jihadist, criminal and separatist violence continued in several regions. In North East, govt forces continued operations against Boko Haram (BH) and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Notably, in Borno state, airstrike 3 Aug killed key ISWAP commander, Alhaji Modu, in Gwoza area; military operations 11-25 Aug reportedly killed about 50 insurgents, including two senior BH and ISWAP commanders, in Sambisa forest and Lake Chad area. Military said 3,407 insurgents and their families 28 July-25 Aug surrendered to govt forces. ISWAP 8 Aug however attacked Auno security checkpoint, 24km from Borno capital Maiduguri, renewing fears that units may still be lurking around city. In Taraba state (also North East zone), unidentified gunmen 12 Aug invaded Karekuka village; fight with residents left at least 19 dead. Govt forces stepped up operations in North West and North Central zones amid violence by criminal groups and jihadists. Notably in North West, air force 6 Aug struck armed groups’ enclaves in Katsina state’s Safana area, killing prominent group leader. Military 13-18 Aug raided armed groups’ camps in Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto and Kaduna states, killing unspecified number, including wanted group leader, Sojan Madagwal, in Zamfara. In North Central zone, air force 13-18 Aug bombed armed groups’ camps in Shiroro area of Niger state, reportedly killing alleged BH leader Aminu Duniya. Following attacks in Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in July, FCT administration early Aug firmed up security in Abuja and troops 13 Aug raided armed group camps in Dei-Dei and Gwagwalada areas, arresting eight. In South West, Lagos police late July-early Aug placed city’s units on high alert amid fear of attacks by jihadist groups. Insecurity in South East, which security forces blame on secessionist group Indigenous People of Biafra’s armed wing, continued. In Imo state, gunmen 1 Aug killed seven security guards at Orogwe town in Owerri West area, and 5 Aug attacked Agwa police station in Oguta area, killing four police. Explosive device 21 Aug killed army major in Ihiala area, Anambra state. Security forces 15-21 Aug raided armed groups’ camps in Abia, Anambra and Ebonyi states.

Deadly protests over rising cost of living erupted across country, leaving two dozen dead; President Bio accused political opposition of insurrection. Protests over rising inflation and fuel crisis 10 Aug broke out in capital Freetown and elsewhere, with some protesters demanding Bio’s resignation; demonstrations turned violent as protesters clashed with security forces, reportedly leaving six police officers and at least 21 civilians dead in capital Freetown, Kamakwie town and Makeni city. In response, govt same day announced nationwide curfew and 10-11 August cut off internet access. Bio 12 Aug claimed deadly protests were orchestrated by political opposition attempting to overthrow his govt.

Fighting erupted between federal and Tigray forces, shattering March ceasefire and threatening to derail long-awaited peace talks; conflict will likely spread to new fronts in coming days. Clashes 24 Aug broke out between federal and Tigray forces around Kobo town near Tigray’s border in Amhara region, ending five-month ceasefire. Both sides blamed each other for renewed violence, which quickly escalated. Federal govt 24 Aug claimed it shot down plane coming from Sudan carrying weapons for Tigray forces; Tigray authorities dismissed statement as “lie”, while Sudan’s foreign ministry 31 Aug summoned Ethiopian ambassador over latter’s accusations that Khartoum “violated Ethiopian airspace”. Tigray authorities 27 Aug claimed control of Kobo. Senior Tigray official, Getachew Reda, 26, 30 Aug accused federal govt of launching two strikes targeting civilians in Tigray’s capital Mekelle; 31 Aug accused govt of sending “tens of thousands of troops” to neighbouring Eritrea. Federal govt same day said Tigray’s forces were expanding fight to different fronts, notably near border with Sudan. Meanwhile, UN 30 Aug said aid deliveries into Tigray suspended amid fighting. Earlier in August, tensions had been rising amid lack of progress toward peace talks. Positions had hardened amid disagreement about whether African Union Envoy Olusegun Obasanjo or Kenya’s govt should mediate; furthermore, Tigray’s authorities demanded return of Amhara-controlled Western Tigray to Tigray’s administration and resumption of basic services before talks occur. Conflict in Oromia region between security forces and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) persisted, notably in North and West Shewa Zones, and East, West and Kellem Wollega Zones. Fighting from 4 Aug also occurred in normally peaceful Buno Bedele Zone. Authorities 6 Aug captured senior OLA commander in Ethiopia-Kenya border town, Moyale; earlier in month, authorities arrested intelligence officer in Borena Zone on suspicion of working with OLA, hinting at growing collaboration between OLA rebels and local officials. OLA 17 Aug proposed humanitarian truce to facilitate aid deliveries into drought-stricken region, which federal govt 20 Aug rejected. Elsewhere, clashes 11 Aug erupted between Afar and Somali ethnic militias in Somali region’s Sitti Zone, reportedly displacing thousands. PM Abiy 12 Aug announced completion of third filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (see Nile Waters).

Protests over upcoming electoral cycle turned violent, leaving at least five dead. After mediation led by clan elders mid-July collapsed, failing to resolve impasse between govt and political opposition over sequencing of upcoming elections, opposition 11 Aug held nationwide demonstrations demanding presidential election be held as planned in Nov; President Bihi has insisted on holding political association election before presidential election, while opposition UCID and Waddani parties have maintained that no other ballot can precede presidential election. Clashes between security forces and protesters left five to seven people killed and 100 injured in capital Hargeisa, Burco and Erigabo cities. Bihi later same day said majority of those injured were security forces “who were attacked with clubs, metal bars, and stones”, pledged to “confront” violent protesters, while opposition leaders said some deaths occurred after security forces opened fire on demonstrators. Six foreign diplomatic missions, including U.S., UK and EU, immediately condemned “excessive use of force” by security forces. Grouping of prominent business leaders in following days attempted to mediate between govt and opposition, but failed to bridge gap.

In far north Cabo Delgado province, Islamist insurgents launched attacks in several districts, beheading civilians and targeting security and defence forces in likely attempt to resupply weapons. Insurgents 5 Aug raided security forces’ Namituco base, Meluco district; Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) later claimed to have injured several soldiers and looted ammunition. ISMP 7 Aug claimed attack on security forces’ Namuembe base, Nangade district, reportedly injuring soldiers, seizing weapons and ammunition; unconfirmed reports said two members of police’s Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) killed in assault. UIR detachment in Litingina town, also Nangade, 19 Aug reportedly withdrew under assault from insurgents, with armoured vehicle from Lesotho Defence Forces destroyed. Insurgent attacks also left several civilians dead, many of them beheaded. Notably, in Macomia district, insurgents 2 Aug beheaded three civilians in Litandacua village; ISMP later claimed attack. In Muidumbe district, insurgents 6-10 Aug raided several villages, killing at least four residents and forcing others to flee; 23-26 Aug beheaded four other civilians near Mandela, Mapate and Muambula villages, and shot dead militia member near Nova Família village. Multiple incidents recorded mid-Aug in Palma district, including 18 Aug attack on Nhica do Rovuma village, 30km from Palma town. In Mocímboa da Praia district, insurgents 18 Aug launched mortars near district capital. In Meluco, insurgents around 24-27 Aug reportedly killed at least three security forces personnel and five civilians in Minhanha village. In Ancuabe district in southern Cabo Delgado, series of insurgent attacks 29-31 Aug left several civilians killed, most of them beheaded, including near border with Chiure district. Rwandan Defence Forces 2 Aug said over 600 civilians held hostage by insurgents had been rescued since Rwandan, Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) and Mozambican forces started counter-insurgency operations in Catupa forest of Macomia district in April. SADC 17 Aug renewed SAMIM mandate for 12 months.

Suspected jihadists launched new attack against govt forces in northern region. Alleged jihadists 22 Aug launched complex attack involving improvised explosive device on army patrol in northern Blamonga village, Kpendjal prefecture (Savanes region); after exchange of fire with soldiers, assailants retreated across Burkina Faso border. Local media reported one soldier dead and 12 injured.

Ethiopia announced completion of third filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) despite concerns raised by Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia’s govt 11 Aug said it had launched power production from GERD’s second turbine, next day announced completion of dam’s third filling. Local media 11 Aug quoted head of Sudanese technical negotiating team on GERD, Mustafa Hussein, as saying that Sudan would take “necessary action” if filling of GERD impacted Sudan’s dams or other uses of Nile river water supply. Sudanese govt 18 Aug however denounced “misleading and incorrect information” and urged “cooperation” between impacted countries. Prior to Ethiopia’s announcements, Egypt late July had sent letter to UN Security Council protesting Ethiopia’s intention to continue “unilaterally” filling dam.

U.S. and North Korea traded barbs over latter’s nuclear weapons program, while Pyongyang rejected Seoul’s new denuclearisation initiative amid U.S.-South Korea military drills. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 1 Aug criticised North Korea’s expansion of “unlawful nuclear programme” and accused Pyongyang of preparing seventh nuclear test; Pyongyang 3 Aug responded that it would “never tolerate” U.S. criticism on weapons tests and called Washington “kingpin of nuclear proliferation”. Visiting South Korea, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 4 Aug pledged to support North Korea’s denuclearisation based on “extended deterrence”; North Korean state media 6 Aug denounced Pelosi as “worst destroyer of international peace and stability”. UN concluded in confidential report leaked 4 Aug that North Korea made preparations for nuclear test during first six months of 2022. In first elaboration of North Korea policy since March election, South Korean President Yoon 15 Aug asserted that denuclearisation was prerequisite for peace in North East Asia and proposed “audacious initiative” to provide economic aid and development in exchange for Pyongyang’s credible steps toward denuclearisation. Kim Yo Jong – sister to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un – 18 Aug dismissed proposal as “nonsense”, saying denuclearisation “cannot be bartered” for economic cooperation and proposal was rehash of policies of conservative govt in power 2008-2013. Remarks came after South Korea, U.S. and Japan 8-14 Aug held joint missile warning and tracking exercises. North 17 Aug fired two cruise missiles from Onchon (west coast). Yoon same day said high-level talks “should not be a political show” but lead to “substantive peace”. South Korea and U.S. 22 Aug commenced largest joint exercise in years. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un 11 Aug declared end to COVID-19 outbreak, which many local traders interpreted as sign that cross-border trade with China could soon restart. South Korean FM Park Jin and Chinese FM Wang Yi 9 Aug pledged to pursue “two-plus-two” talks and increase high-level communication on range of issues; dispute over U.S.-supplied missile defence system deployed in south 11 Aug resurfaced, however, as Beijing sought limits on its deployment. South Korean prosecutors 19 Aug raided presidential archive as part of investigation into former Moon administration’s repatriation of two North Korean fishermen in 2019.

Tensions soared as China conducted large-scale live-fire exercises around Taiwan as part of its multi-pronged response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to island. As U.S. congressional delegation led by Nancy Pelosi 2 Aug landed in Taiwan, China announced live-fire air-naval drills in six strategic maritime areas around Taiwan running 4-7 Aug and later extended to 10 Aug, with over 100 planes flying in first two days. Taiwanese defence ministry 3 Aug decried exercise as akin to blockade and claimed China fired 11 ballistic missiles into waters near Taiwan and over island for first time (some of which landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone – see China/Japan). Additionally, Chinese aerial incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone skyrocketed, totalling 751 planes 1-28 Aug with 337 crossing median line; Chinese naval vessels were sighted 173 times 5-28 Aug, with many vessels also crossing median line. Responding to surge in Chinese activities, Taiwanese troops 4 Aug fired warning flares at two drones spotted near Kinmen county, 10km from China’s Fujian province; 30 Aug fired warning shots at Chinese drone operating in same area. Taiwan 9, 11 Aug held live-fire artillery drills in Pingtung county and 17 Aug held fighter jet drill. Alongside military action, Taiwan govt websites suffered increased cyberattacks, and China 3 Aug banned imports of many Taiwanese goods. China 5 Aug imposed economic sanctions on Pelosi and her direct family, and same day cancelled eight planned dialogues with U.S., including theater command talks, defence policy coordination and climate change talks. U.S. 4 Aug called Chinese response overreaction and effort to “change a status quo”. G7 3 Aug condemned Beijing’s “aggressive military activity” and Japan, U.S. and Australia 7 Aug urged China to cease military exercises. China 15 Aug announced new round of joint combat readiness patrols around Taiwan following U.S. Democrat Senator Ed Markey's visit to island, and next day announced sanctions on ten Taiwanese political figures. Two U.S. warships, USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville, 28 Aug transited Taiwan Strait; Beijing said it was monitoring movement in comparatively restrained response. U.S. governor of Arizona 30 Aug visited island.

U.S. killed al-Qaeda chief in first high-profile strike since Aug 2021 withdrawal, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) targeted Taliban and religious minorities, and Taliban clashed with Pakistani forces. U.S. President Biden 1 Aug confirmed U.S. had killed al-Qaeda chief, Ayman al Zawahiri, in drone strike in capital Kabul on 31 July; Washington accused Taliban authorities of violating Feb 2020 Doha agreement by providing sanctuary to al-Zawahiri, while Taliban countered U.S. conducted strike without informing them. Reports surfaced 5 Aug of widespread protests across country condemning strike. Leaked U.S. intelligence assessment 13 Aug argued al-Qaeda had not regrouped in country. Over 3,000 tribal and religious leaders 19 Aug gathered in Kandahar, including Taliban Emir Hibatullah Akhundzada, to condemn strike and call on neighbours not to cooperate with such “violations of Afghan sovereignty”, as reports suggested U.S. and Pakistan neared deal on U.S. use of Pakistani airspace for future operations. ISKP continued recruitment and lethal attacks. In early Aug, security forces arrested several ISKP cells; recent arrests of Tajiks indicated ISKP’s inroads in recruiting ethnic minority groups. ISKP attacked Hazara civilians in lead-up to Ashura religious commemorations, with three attacks 3-6 Aug. ISKP suicide bombing 11 Aug killed senior Taliban-affiliated cleric Rahimullah Haqqani. ISKP 18 Aug claimed attack on Sufi mosque in Kabul. Insecurity persisted elsewhere. New armed group Watandost Front published video claiming attack on 1 Aug against Taliban forces in Herat province (west). Unknown assailants 8 Aug killed senior Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander Omar Khalid Khorasani in IED blast in Paktika province (east). High Resistance Council for Saving Afghanistan – anti-Taliban resistance group formed in May – 15 Aug held virtual meeting attended by Ahmad Massoud, leader of National Resistance Front (NRF), which resulted in issuance of group’s constitution; NRF also announced its basic principles after meeting. Pakistani and Taliban forces 8 and 22 Aug clashed in Kunar (east) and Paktya (south east) provinces. Taliban defence minister 17 Aug rejected possibility of compromise on Wakhan Corridor amid social media rumours Pakistan might attempt to encroach on thin strip of Afghan territory in order to gain direct access to Central Asia.

Ruling Awami League (AL) adopted austerity measures amid energy crisis, triggering violent protests and deepening tensions with opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Govt 5 Aug increased fuelled prices by as much as 52%, citing global energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (see Ukraine). In response, student organisations and BNP held rallies across country, including in capital Dhaka on 5 Aug, accusing govt of mismanagement of power and energy sectors. Activist 3 Aug died of his injuries after police 31 July fired during demonstration in Bhola district; five people, including police officer, 7 Aug were injured during BNP demonstration in Chapainawabganj district; clashes between BNP supporters and AL’s student wing 12 Aug injured at least 20 people in Pirojpur district; police same day intervened in clash between demonstrators from BNP’s student wings and AL supporters in Feni city, injuring at least 20. Hindu temples were vandalised in Pirojpur, Bagerhat and Kurigram districts on 1, 6 and 9 Aug, respectively. In first ever visit by UN human rights chief to country, Michelle Bachelet 14-18 Aug visited Dhaka and Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar; Bachelet 17 Aug called for more dialogue between political parties, urged govt to amend controversial laws like Digital Security Act to ensure “compliance with international human rights laws”, and asked govt to investigate allegations of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings; Bachelet also expressed concern over rising anti-Rohingya rhetoric. In Ukhiya camp in Cox’s Bazar, shootout between two rival groups 1 Aug killed Rohingya man. Unknown assailants 10 Aug shot dead two Rohingya community leaders in Ukhiya camp; locals held insurgent group Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army responsible. Thousands of Rohingya refugees 25 Aug gathered in camp to mark fifth anniversary of Myanmar military’s crackdown. Marking occasion, UK and Germany 25 Aug confirmed they would formally join The Gambia’s case against Myanmar at International Court of Justice, while the U.S. announced plans to “significantly increase” resettlement of Rohingya, including refugees in Bangladesh. UN Special Envoy to Myanmar Noeleen Hezyer 22-25 Aug met govt officials, including PM Hasina, and visited Rohingya camps; Hezyer called for increased aid for Rohingya response.

Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) marked three years since India revoked its special status, as controversy persisted over electoral register. Ahead of third anniversary on 5 Aug of India’s revocation of J&K’s special status and arrest of local leaders across political spectrum, govt 4 Aug released data to support its claim that militancy had decreased in last three years. Marking anniversary, Organisation for Islamic Cooperation called for “reversal of all illegal and unilateral actions” by India. In BBC interview, J&K Lt-Governor Manoj Sinha 19 Aug claimed Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, chairman of Hurriyat separatist political outfit and Kashmir’s chief cleric, was “neither under house arrest or detained”; Hurriyat refuted claims. Meanwhile, J&K Chief Electoral Officer Hirdesh Kumar 17 Aug announced that “anyone who is living ordinarily” can be “enlisted as a voter in J&K”, marking change from pre-2019 policy which permitted only permanent residents to vote; Kumar said govt expected 2.5mn new voters – marking 30% increase – which sparked outrage as mainstream political parties accused India’s ruling Bhartiya Janata Party of manipulating electoral balance in its favour. In second such act in as many months, China 11 Aug blocked bid by India and U.S. to list Rauf Asghar, deputy chief of Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad and brother of group’s founder, as designated militant at UN Security Council; India’s UN envoy protested decision. Security operations and militant attacks continued in J&K. Operation 5 Aug killed one security force and one militant in Kulgam; 10 Aug killed three LeT militants in Budgam district. Militants 4 Aug hurled grenade at non-local labourers in Pulwama district, killing one, and 12 Aug killed another in Bandipore district; 11 Aug sought to storm army camp in Rajouri district, leaving four militants and two soldiers dead; 13 Aug killed one security personnel in grenade attack in Kulgam district; 14 Aug killed one security force in Srinagar. Militants 17 Aug attacked two Kashmiri Pandits in Shopian district, killing one; Kashmiri Pandit Sangharsh Samiti (KPSS), group of Pandits living in Kashmir, same day appealed to all Pandits to leave region.

Govt announced date for general election in Nov, which sparked haggling among ruling coalition parties over seat-sharing arrangements. Cabinet meeting 4 Aug scheduled parliamentary and provincial elections for 20 Nov; 84 parties applied to Election Commission to contest polls by registration deadline on 16 Aug. Five-member ruling coalition 5 Aug established task force to determine by 16 Aug seat-sharing arrangements for upcoming polls, to ensure ruling parties do not contest same constituencies. By end of month, however, task force was unable to find agreement due to parties’ demands outnumbering available seats on offer; all five parties 25 Aug presented their claims, which cumulatively totaled 234 directly elected House of Representatives seats – far above 165 total seats on offer. Leftist members of coalition reportedly considered merger to increase their bargaining power.

Election Commission inflicted major setback to former PM Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, while Khan faced terrorism charges amid escalating rhetoric against military and officials. In case pending since 2014, Election Commission 2 Aug unanimously found Khan’s PTI party guilty of receiving prohibited funds from foreign nationals and foreign-based companies, also found Khan had filed submissions on party funding that were “grossly inaccurate and wrong” for five years. Calls from ruling party lawmakers that Khan be barred from public office grew louder after Khan 2 Aug announced he would contest nine constituencies in 25 Sept by-elections for seats of 11 PTI parliamentarians who had resigned from national assembly; petitions will be decided in court. In worrying sign of rising tensions, Khan and PTI social media activists amplified criticism of military high command. Military’s media arm 5 Aug condemned “false propaganda and insensitive comments” following deaths of six high-level military officers in helicopter crash on 1 Aug. Tensions further escalated as authorities 9 Aug arrested and charged with treason Khan’s Chief of Staff Shahbaz Gill after Gill previous day called on army’s rank and file to refuse “illegal orders” from high command. Khan 20 Aug accused military of backing Sharif govt and police of torturing Gill; authorities next day charged Khan under anti-terror laws for threatening two top police officials and female judge who authorised Gill’s police detention. FM Hina Rabbani Khar 27 Aug criticised Khan for holding anti-govt rallies during ongoing monsoon rain and floods that have submerged large parts of country, affecting 33mn people and claiming more than 1,000 lives. Negotiations between Pakistani authorities and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) suffered setback when bomb blast 7 Aug killed four TTP leaders in Paktia province; suicide attack 9 Aug killed four soldiers in North Waziristan. Reports indicated potential TTP comeback in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province: inspector general 12 Aug alleged militants reached Swat district from Afghanistan. Militants targeting vehicle of PTI provincial lawmaker 6 Aug killed four in Lower Dir; 13 Aug killed two soldiers in Dir; 16 Aug shot dead two police constables in Tank district.

Govt continued repression against protesters despite international pressure and sought International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance as way out of deepening economic crisis. Government’s crackdown on protest movement continued as police arrested dozens of political activists, including key protest leaders, charging them with range of mostly minor offences. Notably, security forces 18 Aug dispersed peaceful march by students, whereby police used water cannons and tear gas and arrested 20, including three well-known student leaders; decision to detain student leaders under Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) was strongly criticised by western diplomats, UN and human rights groups and indicates importance attached to eliminating political opposition from streets prior to implementation of painful economic policies in coming months. Ambassadors from EU countries 10 Aug jointly reiterated that “protection of civil & human rights, above all freedom of expression & right to dissent, is of utmost importance”. President’s office 16 Aug announced that state of emergency would be allowed to lapse at end of Aug. On economic front, financial reports mid-month showed inflation hit 60.8% year-on-year in July and food costs had risen 90.9%. IMF visit 24-31 Aug appeared to finalise “staff level agreement” on policy reforms needed for estimated $2.9bn “extended funds facility” bailout. Earlier, IMF 19 Aug reiterated that disbursement of funds “would require adequate assurances by Sri Lanka’s creditors that debt sustainability will be restored”, as worries grew about China’s willingness to accept losses on its loans. President Wickremesinghe 30 Aug announced interim budget with tax increases and other policies designed to reduce budget deficit. Meanwhile, Chinese Navy research vessel Yuan Wang 5 with sophisticated capabilities 16 Aug made delayed call on Hambantota port, despite strong objections by U.S. and India. Chinese ambassador 26 Aug criticised “external obstruction” based on so called “security concerns”, alleged history of “aggression [against Sri Lanka] from its northern neighbor” and pledged to defend country’s “national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity”; Indian high commissioner next day criticised Chinese counterpart’s “violation of basic diplomatic etiquette” and alleged “debt driven agendas”.

Deadly clashes between regime and armed groups persisted amid uptick in assassinations in urban areas, while regional body ASEAN lamented regime’s “limited progress” on plan to resolve crisis. Military and allied militias conducted village raids throughout month in northern Chin State, southern and western Sagaing region, northern Magway region and across Kayin State, Kayah State and Tanintharyi region, with local defence forces putting up resistance. Notably, more than dozen local defence forces in Dry Zone (centre) launched second combined offensive during month, reportedly inflicting significant army casualties. Month saw uptick in assassinations in urban areas: from 1-7 Aug, underground cells assassinated five long-serving pro-military Yangon state ward administrators and military killed three top underground cell leaders in Mandalay city. Local defence forces 21 Aug massacred eight members of family in Magway Region in apparent case of mistaken identity; defence force in Mandalay 23 Aug mistakenly killed married couple when targeting police officer with similar name. Tensions remained high between military and ethnic armed group Arakan Army (AA) with clashes escalating following deadly 13 Aug AA attack on military in Rathedaung township, Rakhine State; parties clashed several times in Maungdaw township, on border with Bangladesh. Kachin Independence Army 8 Aug launched significant attack, seizing regime outpost near Sezin village, Hpakant township, and two nearby outposts reportedly controlled by Shanni Nationalities Army; military next day deployed helicopter gunship and two fighter jets. As of 24 Aug, fighting had killed at least four civilians and displaced some 3,000 residents. On international front, regional body ASEAN 3 Aug held foreign ministers’ meeting without regime representation. Joint communique 5 Aug lamented “limited progress” and “lack of commitment” from regime to implement five-point consensus and recommended ASEAN summit in Nov assess progress to guide next steps; regime same day insisted ASEAN refrain from interference in “internal affairs.” Russian FM Sergey Lavrov 3 Aug visited capital Naypyitaw in first ever bilateral visit to Myanmar, likely intended as signal of support for regime. Regime 24 Aug detained former British Ambassador Vicky Bowman and husband Htein Lin, former political prisoner, for alleged household registration error pending trial in Sept.

Insecurity persisted in south amid jihadist activity, clan violence and fighting between armed forces and communist militants. In Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, military 5 Aug killed gunman Khamhed Akan Kambal of Daulah Islamiyah-Hassan Group, allegedly linked to Islamic State, and arrested another member in Ampatuan town, Maguindanao province. Police 16 Aug arrested former barangay chairman and two cohorts suspected of connections to Islamic State-linked Daulah Islamiyah-Maute Group in Marantao municipality, Lanao del Sur province. Gunmen 30 Aug killed police chief and his driver and wounded three others in Ampatuan town. Two rival clans 10 Aug clashed in Macabual town, Pikit municipality, killing five, including four members of Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) factions, and displacing 100 families; police and MILF deployed peacekeepers and emissaries to contain violence. Militant surrenders continued during month. Notably, five Abu Sayaff Group (ASG) fighters 3 Aug surrendered in Talipao municipality, Sulu province; 13 ASG members 5 Aug surrendered in Ungkaya Pukan town, Basilan province; and two ASG members surrendered 11 Aug in Isabela city. Meanwhile, clashes between armed forces and communist New People’s Army continued; violence in Mindanao Island in south, Visayas Islands in centre and Luzon Island in north claimed at least 17 combatant and civilian fatalities and six injured. Provincial Local Govt Unit of Davao Occidental (Mindanao) and 10th Infantry “Agila” Division 18 Aug officially declared province “insurgency free”. Govt forces 22 Aug initially reported gunfire and boat explosion around Samar Island that allegedly killed Benito and Wilma Tiamzon, leaders of Communist Party; as of late month, military did not confirm deaths. President Marcos Jr. 12 Aug swore into office 80 members of Bangsamoro Transition Authority few months after his election as president. In Marawi city, Lanao del Sur province, Congressman Zia Alonto Adiong 15 Aug called on President Marcos Jr. to immediately establish Marawi Compensation Board to grant financial aid for 2017 Marawi siege victims, including 85,335 internally displaced people and those whose properties were damaged during fighting.

Constitutional Court suspended PM Prayuth Chan-ocha amid dispute over legal term limits, while govt and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) held talks prior to coordinated attacks in deep south. Over 50 law professors from 15 Thai universities 16 Aug penned open letter to Constitutional Court president arguing that PM Prayuth Chan-ocha’s term ought to end on 24 Aug on basis that Prayuth became PM in Aug 2014 following coup, thus fulfilling eight-year limit. Opposition MPs 17 Aug submitted petition to House Speaker seeking Constitutional Court ruling on term’s end date. Court 24 Aug accepted petition by opposition MPs and suspended Prayuth, giving him 15 days to respond; Prayuth urged people to “respect the decision of the court”. Hundreds of protesters 21-24 Aug rallied against Prayuth’s government in capital Bangkok. Fifth round of Joint Working Group – Peace Dialogue Panel 1-2 Aug took place in Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur between main separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) and govt delegation; talks focused on proposals for Draft Terms of Reference for Public Consultation, Reduction of Bilateral Acts of Violence and Joint Working Group formed in Jan. Govt delegation proposed second reduction of violence initiative 15 Aug-30 Nov following on from 3 April-14 May Ramadan Peace Initiative, but BRN said there was insufficient time to conclude agreement. Meanwhile, violence continued in deep south. IED 2 Aug wounded two rangers on motorcycle patrol in Mai Kaen district, Pattani province. IED 15 Aug killed ranger and wounded nine others in Sungai Padi district, Narathiwat province; second IED explosion 300m from first hit responders, killing ranger and wounding seven police officers and one civilian. Militants night of 16-17 Aug staged coordinated bombing and arson attacks targeting 17 convenience stores and gas stations across Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat provinces, causing property damage and killing one in Pasemat subdistrict, Su-ngai Kolok district, Narathiwat. BRN 18 Aug issued Facebook statement claiming responsibility for attacks, expressing regret for loss of life and saying attacks were “intended to strike at the power of capitalism” that “is ruining the economies of communities”.

China’s live-fire drills around Taiwan spilled over into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), while Tokyo and Beijing held first high-level dialogue since Feb 2020. Five ballistic missiles – fired during Chinese live-fire drill in retaliation for U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit (see Taiwan Strait) – 4 Aug landed in Japan’s EEZ in first ever such incident; Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi described event as “grave matter”, while China said it did not recognise Japan’s EEZ. Despite incident, China and Japan 17 Aug held high level security talks in first such dialogue between two countries since Feb 2020; both countries agreed to continue communication. As of 28 Aug, 113 Chinese vessels had entered Japan’s contiguous zone during month, including 16 identified in Japan’s territorial waters. Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force 3-9 Aug conducted military drill during U.S.-led RIMPAC joint exercise, which saw Izumo aircraft carrier and Takanami destroyer participate. PM Fumio Kishida 10 Aug appointed veteran Liberal Democratic Party legislator Yasukazu Hamada as new defence minister in Cabinet reshuffle; Hamada served as defence minister 2008-2009 under former PM Taro Aso.

Relations with China remained tense over military activity on unofficial border, while separatist groups in north east conducted sporadic attacks on security forces. During routine talks on confidence-building measures in eastern Ladakh, govt and China 4 Aug discussed measures to prevent violation of each other’s airspace; India complained that Chinese fighter jets came very close to Line of Actual Control (undemarcated de facto border between countries) and violated 10km buffer zone during 24-25 June annual exercises, prompting Indian Air Force to scramble its fighter jets. FM S. Jaishankar 18 Aug said: “At the moment [the India-China] relationship is going through an extremely difficult phase after what China did at the border”. Meanwhile, in Assam state (north east), authorities 3 Aug demolished madrasa in Morigaon district that was being run by mufti with alleged links to Ansarul Islam, banned Bangladesh-based militant outfit. In Arunachal Pradesh state (north east), militants allegedly belonging to armed separatist groups United Liberation Front of Asom (Independent) and Yung Aung faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) 9 Aug fired shots from across Myanmar border and injured one security forces personnel. In Tripura state (north east), militants of armed separatist group National Liberation Front of Tripura 18 Aug ambushed patrol party of security forces and killed one security forces personnel on India-Bangladesh border. National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah) 2 Aug observed 25 years since signing “Indo-Naga” ceasefire agreement; deadlock persists between govt and group over issues of separate flag and constitution, as group alleges that New Delhi reneged on Framework Agreement signed in Aug 2015.

China conducted minesweeping and training exercises, while regional body ASEAN announced intention to proceed with Code of Conduct negotiating text. Chinese navy 13 Aug commenced five-day minesweeping drill in South China Sea (SCS) with brigade including Type 082-II minesweepers Hejian and Chishui. China’s Shandong aircraft carrier battlegroup 24 Aug commenced training exercises. ASEAN FMs 5 Aug called for “maintaining and promoting peace, security, stability, safety, and freedom of navigation” in SCS during foreign ministers’ meeting, and announced aim to conclude second reading of Single Draft Negotiating Text for Code of Conduct by end of 2022. Taiwanese FM Joseph Wu 9 Aug warned China’s ambitions go beyond Taiwan, said it is “determined to link the East and South China Seas to the Taiwan Strait so this entire area would become its internal waters”. Australian Air Force chief Robert Chipman 22 Aug said Australia would continue surveillance operations in SCS despite “recent spate of unsafe incidences”, alluding to May confrontation between Australian and Chinese jets.

Authorities detained three alleged jihadists, while military participated in U.S.-sponsored exercises in Tajikistan. Authorities 26 Aug detained three alleged jihadists in southern region of Batken, whom they accuse of engaging in activities aimed at raising money to support terrorist organisations operating in Syria and distributing propaganda material. Military participated in U.S.-sponsored military exercise, Regional Cooperation 22, 10-20 Aug in Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe. U.S., Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Pakistan were all involved in military exercise designed to “enhance regional security and stability, increase national capabilities and commitment to interdict weapons of mass destruction, terrorist elements, and narcotics, [and] help develop regional defense forces in international peace operations and information sharing”.

Human rights organisation condemned crackdown in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO), as U.S.-sponsored military exercises took place in capital Dushanbe. NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) 23 Aug issued statement calling on Tajik authorities to halt “wrongful detention” of dozens of residents from restive GBAO, which saw violent anti-govt protests in May. HRW said authorities have detained over 200 people on charges “related to the protests and ensuing clashes” who now face “unfair trials behind closed doors without access to lawyers”. U.S.-sponsored military exercise, Regional Cooperation 22, took place 10-20 Aug in Dushanbe. Participants from U.S. Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Pakistan were all involved in military exercise designed to “enhance regional security and stability, increase national capabilities and commitment to interdict weapons of mass destruction, terrorist elements, and narcotics, [and] help develop regional defense forces in international peace operations and information sharing”.

Calm prevailed in Karakalpakstan as President Mirziyoyev appointed new leader to head region following July’s deadly protests. Following deadly protests early July in autonomous Karakalpakstan region in response to govt’s proposed constitutional amendments, govt 1 Aug closed public consultation period on proposed amendments; commission said parliamentary committee will review feedback and amend accordingly before referendum on constitution is held. President Mirziyoyev 26 Aug appointed Amanbai Orynbaev to lead Karakalpakstan, accusing region’s previous leadership of “failure to find solutions to individual socio-economic problems”, which he said were “at root of the events of two months ago”; predecessor Murat Kamalov same day stepped down, citing health issues. Military participated in U.S.-sponsored military exercise, Regional Cooperation 22, 10-20 Aug in Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe, alongside U.S., Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Pakistan (see Tajikistan).

Türkiye continued hydrocarbon exploration in undisputed maritime zones north of island, while European energy companies announced major gas discovery south of island. Türkiye 9 Aug dispatched its fifth drillship Abdülhamid Han for hydrocarbon research and drilling in undisputed maritime zones north of Cyprus; Greek Cypriots have been alarmed by prospect of such activities moving into disputed zones. French energy company Total and Italian energy company Eni 22 Aug announced discovery of significant natural gas deposits at Cronos-1 well in Block 6, south of island; preliminary estimates indicate presence of 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. Republic of Cyprus energy ministry same day said govt and companies had already begun “processing ways to expedite and optimise use of this new discovery”. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev 9 Aug met with Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar in Türkiye on margins of Islamic Solidarity Games. Meeting drew harsh criticism from Republic of Cyprus officials, who 11 Aug said they were expecting “corrective steps” and threatened to veto Azerbaijan’s bid for partnership deal on energy supplies with EU; Greek Cypriot officials are concerned that such meetings could pave way for political recognition of Turkish Cypriot entity in north.

Amid military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), fighting escalated with Kurdish-led forces in Syria, while tensions persisted with Greece and govt restored ties with Israel. In escalation in northern Syria, military launched strikes on Kurdish-led forces, who claimed attacks on army sites in Turkish border provinces that killed several Turkish soldiers (see Syria). Military also continued operations against PKK in Iraq and Türkiye’s south east. In northern Iraq, Defence ministry 27 Aug said it killed nine PKK militants. In Türkiye’s south east, military 8 Aug launched new anti-PKK operation in rural areas of Bitlis province. Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu 19 Aug said only 124 PKK members remained within country’s borders and “no terrorist will remain in the countryside” in 2023. Authorities detained at least 30 pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) officials. Police detained at least 125 individuals with alleged links to Islamic State (ISIS). Meanwhile, tensions persisted between Ankara and Athens. Media outlets 16 Aug reported Greek authorities mid-month transported group of 38 migrants stranded on islet on Evros/Meriç river along Türkiye-Greece land border since mid-July to mainland Greece; Turkish authorities throughout month accused Athens of pushing back migrants on border, while Greek officials countered that Turkish security officials forced them to cross. Defence ministry 28 Aug accused Greece of locking on to Turkish jets with S-300 air defence systems on 23 Aug, which Greek authorities denied on 29 Aug. On diplomatic front, FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 11 Aug announced brief exchange with Syrian FM Faisal Mekdad, in which former voiced need to reconcile regime and opposition, sparking speculation over potential shift in Syria policy. In similar vein, President Erdoğan 19 Aug mentioned potential “political dialogue or diplomacy” with Syrian regime. Erdoğan met Russia’s President Putin and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy 5 and 18 Aug, respectively, as part of efforts to ensure safe grain passage from Ukraine. Ankara and Israel 17 Aug announced restoration of full diplomatic relations. Ankara, Sweden and Finland 26 Aug agreed to continue consultations over Nordic nations’ NATO bid.

Azerbaijan launched military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) ahead of high-level meetings in Brussels and Moscow; opposition announced return to parliament after five-month boycott. After weeks of relative calm in NK, clashes erupted early Aug between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces answering to de facto authorities in NK, with Baku 3 Aug launching new military operation; both sides reported casualties, as international community called for end to hostilities (see Nagorno-Karabakh). EU Special Representative for South Caucasus Toivo Klaar 19 Aug met with senior representatives from Armenia and Azerbaijan in first senior bilateral meeting after escalation. Both countries’ leaders 31 Aug met in Brussels for EU-mediated talks, agreed to “step up substantive work to advance on the peace treaty”; deputy PMs of both countries 30 Aug met in Russian capital Moscow to discuss issues related to transport, communication and delimitation of international borders (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Azerbaijani foreign ministry 25 Aug criticised appointment of new U.S. co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group, saying “attempts to revive the almost defunct Minsk Group” could lead to sidelining of U.S. from normalisation process of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Armenian foreign ministry same day said OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs still had international mandate to support comprehensive settlement of NK conflict. Meanwhile, opposition leader Ishkhan Saghatelyan 23 Aug announced return of opposition MPs to parliament in Sept; opposition had boycotted parliamentary sessions since April and organised protests in bid to force resignation of PM Pashinyan over alleged compromises on NK’s independence.

Govt launched military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) ahead of high-level meetings with Armenia in Brussels and Moscow, while proceeding with return of internally displaced people to adjacent territories. After weeks of relative calm in NK, clashes erupted early Aug between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces answering to de facto authorities in NK, with Baku 3 Aug launching new military operation; both sides reported casualties as international community called for end to hostilities (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Meanwhile, govt 19-20 Aug moved first group of 200 people from 41 families, internally displaced since war in 1990s, to Agali village in south-western Zangilan district; 325 families hail from area. EU Special Representative for South Caucasus Toivo Klaar 19 Aug met with senior representatives from Armenia and Azerbaijan in first senior bilateral meeting after escalation. Both countries’ leaders 31 Aug met in Brussels for EU-mediated talks, agreed to “step up substantive work to advance on the peace treaty”; deputy PMs of both countries 30 Aug met in Moscow to discuss issues related to transport, communication and delimitation of international borders (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Foreign ministry 25 Aug criticised appointment of new U.S. co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group, saying “attempts to revive the almost defunct Minsk Group” could lead to sidelining of U.S. from normalisation process of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Armenian foreign ministry same day said OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs still had international mandate to support comprehensive settlement of NK conflict.

Breakaway South Ossetia reopened crossing points with Georgia proper after three years, tensions with U.S. ambassador persisted, and EU published review of govt’s progress on reforms needed for accession. De facto South Ossetia security council 18 Aug decided to resume functioning of key crossings points with Georgia proper from 20-30 of each month using special passes; crossing points had been largely closed for almost three years following tensions over Tbilisi’s decision in 2019 to install police outpost near South Ossetian village of Tsnelisi at line that separates entity from rest of Georgia. Georgian security service and EU monitoring mission 19, 22 Aug respectively praised opening of crossings, which remain vital for ethnic Georgians living in South Ossetia. New de facto President of South Ossetia Alan Gagloev continued new govt appointments; notably, 15 Aug named Akhsar Jioev de facto foreign minister; 23 Aug named former Russian military serviceman Marat Pavlov de facto defence minister. Tensions with U.S. persisted as Georgia’s ruling party and its political allies continued verbal exchanges with U.S. Ambassador Kelly Degnan over former’s accusations that Western countries wanted “to drag” Georgia into war with Russia; also accused Degnan and other U.S., EU diplomats of supporting opposition; notably, in statement published 11 Aug, four MPs allied with ruling party accused Degnan of backing “the radical agenda of the radical opposition”. EU 13 Aug released Association Agreement implementation report, reviewing Georgia’s implementation of reforms needed for EU accession. Report complimented country’s progress toward closer economic integration but criticised its poor handling of 2021 local elections and other issues that “threaten to undermine the country’s democratic foundations”. Ruling party 30 Aug accused opposition of trying “their best to sabotage” implementation of EU conditions for candidate status. Syrian FM Faisal Mekdad visited breakaway Abkhazia 24-25 Aug, met with de facto president Aslan Bzhania, saying Abkhazia “relies on Syria's support to expand contacts with Middle East countries that maintain friendly relations with Syria”; Mekdad promised to work to further develop relations with Abkhazia.

Following sharp rise in tensions late July, govt reached agreement with Serbia allowing border crossings with existing ID cards, but failed to resolve license plate dispute. Uptick in tensions late July continued into Aug over govt plans to issue temporary IDs and license plates to Serbs entering country. Notably, PM Albin Kurti 10 Aug warned of “possibility of rising tensions and new conflicts”; NATO 17 Aug confirmed increase in troop numbers and reiterated readiness to “deploy them”; and Serbian President Vučić 21 Aug accused Pristina of seeking “final removal” of Serbs, warning that if NATO did not protect them, Serbia “will save our people from persecution and pogroms”; PM Kurti 26 Aug asked NATO for additional troops to “improve security”. However, following unsuccessful talks earlier in Aug, EU High Representative Josep Borrell 27 Aug announced Kosovo and Serbia had reached deal to resolve dispute over temporary IDs, agreeing that neither side will require additional documentation for crossing border. However, sides failed to resolve license plate dispute as govt planned to begin policy of making all Serbia-registered vehicles switch to temporary Republic of Kosovo plates at border from 1 Sept; EU Special Envoy Miroslav Lajcak 31 Aug said “we have two months to find a solution”, referring to 31 Oct deadline set by Pristina for switch to local license plates. Meanwhile, in accordance with June agreement struck with Serbia, govt 10 Aug transferred $40 million to cover Serb minority’s energy costs until Nov, when Serbs will take over payments.

Russian campaign in Donbas remained largely static, Ukrainian army announced counteroffensive in south as it stepped up attacks in Russian-occupied areas, and fears mounted over shelling at Zaporizhzhia power plant. Russian forces made few advances in Donbas region during month. In Dnipropetrovsk region (east), Russian forces 24 Aug struck train station in Chaplyne town, killing 25; in Kharkiv city (east), Russian shelling 17, 18 Aug left 17 dead. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces 29 Aug announced offensive around southern city of Kherson. In weeks prior, strikes in Russian-occupied areas increased as Ukrainian forces attempted to weaken Russian rear. In Russian-annexed Crimea, explosions 9 Aug rocked Saki airbase near Novofedorivka village over 200km from nearest Ukrainian positions. U.S. media outlet The New York Times 11 Aug quoted senior Ukrainian official hinting attack had been executed with help of partisans. Second explosions 16 Aug occurred, notably at railway hub in Dzhankoi town and Hvardeiskoe airbase near regional capital Simferopol. In Kherson region, several assassinations of Russian-appointed officials occurred during month; unidentified assailants 6 Aug shot dead deputy head of administration in Nova Kakhovka city; 28 Aug killed deputy head of regional administration. Ukrainian forces repeatedly struck remaining bridges across Dnipro river near Kherson city and Nova Kakhovka city. In south-eastern Zaporizhzhia region, repeated shelling occurred throughout month at Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar city following reports that Russian troops were using plant as military base; Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for attacks. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 6, 19 Aug expressed concern for safety of workers and facility, requested inspection on which IAEA team embarked 29 Aug. President Zelenskyy 26 Aug said Russian shelling day before temporarily cut power plant’s electricity supply, raising fears of nuclear disaster; Russian official 26 Aug blamed Ukrainian forces. In Luhansk region, Ukrainian forces 14 Aug reportedly destroyed headquarters of Kremlin-linked private military company Wagner Group in Popasna city. In Donetsk city, Russian-backed authorities 23 Aug said shelling struck apartment building, killing three. UN Humanitarian Agency 8 Aug said at least 17.7mn people in need of assistance since February. 27 ships carrying 670,000 tonnes of agricultural products left ports 1-20 Aug.

Azerbaijan launched military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), ending period of relative calm as clashes with ethnic Armenian forces left three dead. Amid reports Baku was pressing for speedy launch of new road linking NK with Armenia and demanding disarmament of local Armenian forces, de facto authorities 1 Aug said Azerbaijani forces wounded one soldier during clashes at north-eastern front, which Russian peacekeepers confirmed; same day said Azerbaijani forces were advancing in western and north-western fronts, and near main road connecting entity to Armenia, known as Lachin corridor. Baku 3 Aug launched military operation in NK, saying de facto NK forces killed Azerbaijani soldier in Lachin region during exchange of fire. Stepanakert same day said strikes killed two of its soldiers. Azerbaijan 5 Aug announced military had taken control of strategic Mount Buzdukh and adjacent heights. International community, including Brussels, Washington, Moscow and UN, 3-4 Aug urged parties to respect ceasefire. Azerbaijani defence ministry 4 Aug said tensions had eased. Following flare-up, de facto authorities in NK 5 Aug instructed Armenian residents from Lachin city and Zabukh village, located along Lachin corridor connecting NK with Armenia, to leave their homes by 25 Aug when area came under Azerbaijan’s control as part of 2020 ceasefire agreement. Armenian PM Pashinyan day before told congress that 2020 truce agreement required Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia to establish joint “plan” for construction of new Armenia-Karabakh road before sections of existing Lachin corridor could be transferred to Azerbaijan’s control; he said no plan had been drawn up despite agreement. Azerbaijan 15 Aug announced completion of its part of new road to replace existing Lachin corridor. EU Special Representative for South Caucasus Toivo Klaar 19 Aug met with senior representatives from Armenia and Azerbaijan in first senior bilateral meeting after escalation. Both countries’ leaders 31 Aug met in Brussels for EU-mediated talks, which concluded without major announcement. European Council President Charles Michel nonetheless said talks were “open and productive”, focused on humanitarian issues, transport links and border delimitation, and that both sides agreed “to step up substantive work to advance on the peace treaty”.

Crackdown on dissent continued apace, air force conducted exercises with Russia, and govt agreed to strengthen economic ties with Iran. Govt continued crackdown on independent media. Notably, court 3 Aug sentenced journalist Iryna Slaunikava, who works for Polish broadcaster Belsat TV, to five years in prison for “leading an extremist group” and “disrupting social order”. Poland next day summoned Belarus’s chargé d’affaires over case. Russia 9 Aug extradited activist Yana Pinchuk to Belarus despite repeated warnings that she risked torture upon return; govt has accused Pinchuk of inciting hatred and endangering national security. On two-year anniversary of disputed presidential election that prompted mass protests, opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya 9 Aug named “interim government”; according to Tsikhanouskaya, govt will be responsible for “transit of power from dictatorship to democracy”. Meanwhile, EU 8 Aug called for Belarus to respect “democracy and the rule of law”, while U.S. 9 Aug imposed visa restrictions on “100 regime officials”. Air force 9-11 Aug, 22-25 Aug held military exercise in Belarus and Russia respectively. China 17 Aug announced joint military drills “in near future” with Belarus, Russia, India, and others, insisting drills have “nothing to do” with international tensions. President Lukashenko 17 Aug approved draft agreement for military-technical cooperation on research, development and production of weaponry until 2025 with Russia. Belarus and Iran 27 Aug signed Memorandum of Understanding to strengthen economic relations, with one official saying “Iran and Belarus can put neutralisation of sanctions on their joint agenda”.

Clampdown on opposition persisted, Ukraine continued attacks on Russian borderlands, and govt temporarily halted gas supplies to Europe. Crackdown on opposition continued. Police 22 Aug detained 33 activists and journalists across capital Moscow, according to OVD-Info, in move likely aimed at preventing protests on Russia’s National Flag Day; most detainees released that day. Kira Yarmysh, press secretary of imprisoned opposition leader Alexey Navalny, 23 Aug announced authorities had opened criminal cases against her and seven other associates of Navalny for spreading disinformation, or “fakes”, about Russian army. Authorities 24 Aug detained former Mayor of Yekaterinburg city, Sverdlovsk region, and opposition figurehead Yevgeny Roizman for “discrediting” Russian army. Head of human rights group Agora 16 Aug said Russian authorities are investigating 85 criminal cases for “fakes” about Russian army. Authorities 19 Aug included three Canadian organisations in list of “undesirable organisations”, which now includes 65 foreign NGOs. Darya Dugina, daughter of Russian philosopher and Putin ally Alexander Dugin, was killed 20 Aug in car bombing near Moscow. Authorities 22 Aug blamed Ukrainian special services for assassination; Ukrainian govt denied involvement. Ukrainian army continued attacks in Russian borderlands. In Belgorod region, authorities 9 Aug announced discovery of Ukrainian Lepestok mines in Shebekinsky district; ammunition depot 18 Aug caught fire near Timonoyo village, compelling authorities to evacuate civilians. Authorities 16 Aug accused Ukrainian “saboteurs” of repeatedly blowing up electricity pylons running from nuclear reactor complex in southern Kursk region. Elsewhere in Kursk, Ukrainian drones 18 Aug twice attacked Kucherov farmstead in Belov district, injuring one border guard. In Kaliningrad region, security forces 25 Aug announced they had thwarted planned terrorist attack on Russian Navy’s Baltic Fleet and Khrabrovo airport, and detained Russian citizen who allegedly supports Ukrainian Azov regiment. President Putin 25 Aug signed decree expanding size of Russian army, bringing total number of servicemen up from 1.9mn to almost 2.04mn. EU foreign ministers 30 Aug agreed to suspend visa travel agreement with Russia, which gave preferential treatment to Russian visa requests. Meanwhile, State-owned gas company Gazprom 31 Aug halted gas supplies to Europe for three days, claiming Nord Stream I pipeline needed repairs.

Rival criminal groups clashed, deadly attacks on journalists continued, and govt announced plans to extend military’s control over policing. Deadly violence persisted at high levels during month. In Jalisco and Guanajuato states (both centre), suspected members of Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG) 9 Aug blocked roads and set fire to vehicles and shops, apparently in response to federal forces’ attempt to capture leading members of group. In Ciudad Juárez city, Chihuahua state (north), suspected members of Sinaloa Cartel’s affiliated groups Los Mexicles and Los Chapos 11 Aug clashed inside local prison, killing two. Violence same day spilled onto city streets, with members of Los Mexicles killing nine. In Baja California state (north west), presumed members of local criminal group Los Erres, which collaborates with CJNG, 12 Aug blocked roads and set fire to public transport in Tecate, Mexicali, Rosarito, Ensenada and Tijuana cities. Suspected members of La Familia Michoacana drug cartel 25 Aug clashed with local gang in Tuzantla municipality, Michoacán state (centre), killing eight. Deadly attacks on journalists continued. Unknown assailants 2 Aug shot dead journalist Ernesto Méndez in San Luis de la Paz, Guanajuato; authorities 16 Aug found body of missing journalist Juan Arjón López in San Luis Río Colorado municipality, Sonora state (north west). Human rights organisation Article-19 18 Aug said 2022 “could be the worst year in a century” for Mexico’s journalists, with 331 documented attacks between Jan and June. President López Obrador 8 Aug announced he would present legislation to formally integrate National Guard into Ministry of Defence (SEDENA), prompting criticism from civil society observers for breaking promise to keep National Guard as civilian institution. Defence Minister Gen Luis Cresencio Sandoval 10 Aug confirmed National Guard will be formally integrated into SEDENA 16 Sept. Meanwhile, authorities 25 Aug announced former Attorney General Jesús Murillo Karam will be criminally prosecuted for disappearance of 43 students from Ayotzinapa college in 2014, becoming highest-ranking official facing justice for their deaths.

New govt took steps to revive talks with ELN and other armed and criminal groups; Colombia and Venezuela restored diplomatic relations. President Petro 7 Aug took office, becoming first left-leaning president in country’s recent history. During inauguration speech, Petro promised to complete implementation of 2016 peace agreement with Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC); also called on armed and criminal groups to lay down their weapons, referring to govt’s “Total Peace” plan aimed at reviving negotiations with National Liberation Army (ELN) and demobilising other armed groups. Following this appeal, Petro 11 Aug sent high-level delegation to Cuba, where ELN negotiating team has remained in exile since talks broke down in 2019. Govt’s negotiating commission 12 Aug said it would “recognise the legitimacy of the rebel negotiators” and reinstate protocols signed in 2016, including protections for negotiators and roles for guarantor states Norway and Cuba; commission added that ELN said it will take “necessary steps to restart talks”. Petro 19 Aug suspended arrest and extradition warrants of ELN negotiators; defence ministry 25 Aug announced govt will suspend aerial bombing of armed groups; Petro 27 Aug proposed multilateral ceasefire to armed groups throughout country; interior minister 30 Aug submitted bill to Congress laying out peace initiative to pave way for negotiations with armed groups. In ELN’s stronghold Arauca department (north east), group 12 Aug announced release of nine individuals held captive; 18 Aug released six military personnel. Criminal organisation Gulf Clan 7 Aug announced unilateral ceasefire, expressed “goodwill to take part in exploratory talks”. Govt 12 Aug announced new military and police leadership, sending around 50 generals into retirement; reaction from military, broadly sceptical of president, was muted. Meanwhile, in Cauca department (south west), unknown assailants 28 Aug killed three members of indigenous community in Caldono municipality; suspected FARC dissidents 31 Aug kidnapped at least five minors, killed another near Argelia town. After incoming administration and Venezuela late-July agreed to reestablish relations, Petro 28 Aug sent new ambassador, Armando Benedetti, to Caracas, reversing outgoing President Duque’s confrontational policy toward Venezuela; Venezuelan President Maduro same day sent former FM Félix Plasencia as Venezuela's representative in Bogotá.

Bomb exploded in port city of Guayaquil, killing five and prompting authorities to impose state of emergency; negotiations between govt and Indigenous organisations stalled. Improvised explosive device 14 Aug detonated in Guayaquil, country’s second largest city and major trade hub, killing five and injuring at least 17. Attack, which authorities blamed on “criminal groups”, marked dramatic escalation of violence in city that has seen rising gang-related crime in recent months as groups fight for control over drug-trafficking routes. In response to explosion, President Lasso 14 Aug declared state of emergency in Guayaquil, sixth such emergency imposed to curb violence since he took office in May 2021. Interior Minister Patricio Carrillo same day called blast “a declaration of war against the state” by criminal gangs, while city’s mayor, Cynthia Viteri, wrote open letter to Lasso saying “criminal groups have become a government within a government in Ecuador”. Situation in Guayaquil epitomizes rising violence nationwide. Authorities as of 17 Aug recorded 2,593 homicides throughout Ecuador in 2022 compared to 2,471 in whole of 2021; media outlet Expreso 15 Aug reported that, on average, one person is murdered every two hours in Ecuador. Authorities 16 Aug said govt is developing referendum text with ten questions for public deliberation, focused predominantly on ways to address country’s security issues. Meanwhile, negotiations between govt and indigenous groups following violent anti-govt protests in June stalled. Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, which spearheaded protests, 2 Aug presented proposal demanding govt set price controls on 44 essential goods, but little progress was made. Indigenous leaders 13 Aug said govt was not negotiating in good faith and lacked political will to advance negotiations.

Colombia and Venezuela restored diplomatic relations, Mexico dialogue remained on hold, and divisions within opposition over question of primaries to elect candidate for 2024 elections persisted. After govt and incoming Colombian administration late-July agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations, Colombian President Petro 28 Aug sent new ambassador, Armando Benedetti, to Caracas, reversing outgoing Colombian President Duque’s confrontational policy toward Venezuela; President Maduro same day sent former FM Félix Plasencia as Venezuela's representative in Bogotá. Meanwhile, opposition leader Juan Guaidó 12 Aug claimed there had been “informal meetings” between opposition leadership and Petro’s govt, but said he wished Petro had not so quickly recognised Maduro’s govt, which he accused of “harbouring terrorism”. Amid restoration of relations, govt 4 Aug announced it would seek extradition of leading opposition politician Julio Borges from Colombia, whom Caracas accuses of orchestrating Aug 2018 drone explosion near Maduro during military parade. Court same day sentenced Borges’ Primero Justicia party member, Juan Requesens, to eight years in prison for involvement in same drone attack; 16 others received up to 30 years. Govt’s chief negotiator Jorge Rodríguez 9 Aug said talks with opposition could not resume until Venezuelan cargo plane, held in Argentina since early-June at Washington’s request because of suspected links to Iranian Revolutionary Guard (which remains on U.S.’ terrorism blacklist), was returned; meanwhile, opposition’s Chief Negotiator Gerardo Blyde 15 Aug said there was “very high probability” that formal Mexico talks between govt and opposition would soon resume. Opposition alliance Unitary Platform remained divided over issue of primaries to select candidate for 2024 presidential election; hardliners, including Leopoldo López of Voluntad Popular, want primaries held in early 2023, while moderates prefer end of next year, and some accuse rivals of being more interested in settling issue of opposition leadership than participating in 2024 elections.

Civil society platform Montana Accord called off negotiations with PM Ariel Henry while protestors demanded his resignation, and EU called for end to gang violence as clashes reignited. Political negotiations suffered setback as Monitoring Office of so-called Montana Accord (who have proposed two-year transitional plan that includes five-member presidential college and prime minister) 2 Aug announced end to discussions with interim govt of PM Henry, accusing him of refusing to advance dialogue on rebuilding institutional capacity and organising free and fair elections. Meanwhile, thousands of protestors 22, 29 Aug took to streets across Haiti, demanding Henry’s resignation, whom they blame for widespread poverty and violence. Following violent escalation of security crisis in July that left hundreds dead, EU 1 Aug called for immediate end to gang violence and emergency care for victims. Gang alliances G9 and G-Pep 12 Aug clashed in Cité Soleil district of Port-au-Prince, killing 50. UN office in Haiti 10 Aug condemned prison conditions that have caused 97 deaths since beginning of year, including occupancy at over four times maximum capacity in country’s four main prisons; urged authorities to provide prison administration with financial, human and material supplies, and accelerate judicial proceedings. Organization of American States General Secretariat 8 Aug condemned international community for poor management of Haiti’s crises, saying “this failure has to do with 20 years of erratic political strategy by an international community that was not capable of facilitating the construction of a single institution with the capacity to address the problems facing Haitians”; called on foreign partners to embrace new approach with financial and technical support to strengthen dialogue process, curb violence and help restore democracy. Over 400 Haitians 6-8 Aug arrived at Florida coast on sailboats; U.S. authorities took majority into custody, 9 Aug repatriated 186. Dominican Republic authorities 9 Aug arrested 492 irregular Haitian migrants and immediately deported them.

President Ortega’s govt tightened grip on Catholic Church amid continued crackdown on civil society; tensions with foreign partners persisted. Hostilities against religious figures increased, notably targeting parishes and bishops in Matagalpa department (north). Police 2 Aug surrounded Divina Misericordia parish in Sébaco municipality, placing priest and some parishioners under siege until 4 Aug. Police 3 Aug surrounded Matagalpa diocese, blockading Bishop Rolando Álvarez, vocal critic of President Ortega, and some of his associates for two days. Authorities 5 Aug opened investigation against Álvarez for “promoting hate” and placed him under house arrest; 19 Aug forcibly entered Episcopal Palace of Matagalpa diocese, arresting Álvarez and at least seven associates. Authorities 12 Aug banned Our Lady of Fatima procession, organised by Catholic Church to take place 13 August in capital Managua, citing “internal security” concerns. In Mulukukú municipality, North Caribbean Autonomous Region (north east), police 14 Aug arrested Priest Óscar Benavides. Govt continued to shutter civil society organisations and media outlets. Notably, authorities 1-25 Aug shut down television channels RB3 and Nueva Guinea TV and 15 radio stations, including ten belonging to Matagalpa diocese; notably, 25 Aug shut down “Radio Stereo Fe” Catholic radio station, belonging to diocese of Estelí, after that diocese 23 Aug criticised govt for persecution of Church. National Assembly 9-11 Aug revoked legal status of 200 NGOs, 24 Aug revoked 100 more, bringing total number of NGOs closed since 2018 to over 1,450. Organization of American States (OAS) 12 Aug adopted resolution condemning “harassment and arbitrary restrictions placed on religious organizations” and urged govt to “cease harassment and intimidation of the independent press”. Meanwhile, Inter-American Court of Human Rights 19 Aug demanded immediate release of Álvarez and others “arbitrarily” detained in Nicaragua; UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet same day condemned raid of Episcopal Palace of Matagalpa and “new wave of harassment” against members of Catholic Church; Pope Francis 21 Aug expressed concern over situation and called for dialogue.

Amid ongoing efforts to detain and prosecute criminal leaders, authorities eradicated large number of coca bushes, and negotiations to establish UN-backed anti-corruption commission continued at slow pace. Judicial proceedings continued in U.S. against Honduran nationals extradited on drug-trafficking charges. Herlinda Bobadilla, head of Montes Bobadilla trafficking clan, 2 Aug pleaded not guilty to drug-trafficking charges at first court hearing in Virginia; trial expected to begin in Feb 2023. Former National Police Head Juan Carlos “El Tigre” Bonilla 10 Aug appeared before judge for first time, 19 Aug pleaded not guilty to drug-trafficking charges. Meanwhile, authorities 12 Aug extradited suspected MS-13 leader Tokiro Rodas Ramírez to U.S. on organised crime charges, 16 Aug arrested María Mendoza, alias “Marbella”, wanted for extradition by U.S. on human-trafficking charges, in La Esperanza municipality, Intibucá department (west). Authorities continued forced eradication of coca crops to curb activities of criminal groups, who largely control coca production. In Colón department (north east), authorities 1 Aug reported seizure of over 1.6mn coca bushes, largest seizure of its kind in country. In San Pedro Sula city, Cortés department (north west), unknown assailants 13 Aug killed five people, bringing number of massacres this year to 33. Meanwhile, efforts to establish anti-corruption commission continued at slow pace. Notably, govt 22 Aug submitted proposals and comments on memorandum draft that UN had proposed in July, suggesting limits to commission’s ability to serve as joint plaintiff and requesting to choose commissioner. On diplomatic front, Head of Congress Luis Redondo 11 Aug signed technical cooperation agreement with Legislative Assembly of El Salvador during visit to neighbouring country. Honduras next day abstained from Organization of American States (OAS) extraordinary session vote to condemn Nicaraguan President Ortega’s crackdown on dissent; OAS approved resolution.

Supreme Electoral Court resisted continued military interest in electoral process as public polarisation over armed forces grew. Ahead of presidential elections set for Oct, concerns grew regarding unlawful intervention of military in electoral process. Superior Electoral Court 2-19 Aug granted military permission to inspect source code for electronic voting machines to be used for elections, following Defence Minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira’s request 1 Aug. However, court 8 Aug declined Nogueira’s request, made in July, to access 2014 and 2018 election data, arguing military has no mandate to analyse past elections. Court same day announced army’s Col Ricardo Sant’anna would be barred from participating in group responsible for overseeing elections, accusing him of “spreading false information in order to discredit the Brazilian electoral system”. After confrontation with Rio de Janeiro’s mayor, Bolsonaro 10 Aug halted plans to combine traditional Sept 7 Independence Day military parade with electoral rally organised by supporters in Copacabana neighbourhood. Proposed joint event polarised public; notably, social network monitoring initiative Democracia Digital 10 Aug said right-wing Telegram groups and channels in Jan-July 2022 saw 695% increase in messages with content including calls for military intervention and demands to arrest Supreme Court justices compared to same period in 2021. Meanwhile, University of São Paulo Law School 11 Aug presented “Letter to Brazilians in defence of the Democratic Rule of Law” at launch event; letter, published late July, raised concerns about “immense danger to democratic normality” amid “insinuations of contempt for the results of the elections”, gathered over 1.1mn signatures.

Govt extended state of emergency for fifth time to combat gang violence as more evidence emerged of authorities’ abuses. Press and civil society organisations accused authorities of human rights violations, including arbitrary detentions and torture, during state of emergency imposed late March. Notably, media outlet El Faro 7 Aug published court records of 690 people arrested since March, showing that police had justified arrests of at least 60 with ambiguous criteria such as “looking suspicious” or being “nervous”; Central American University Human Rights Observatory 10 Aug released report documenting 306 cases of torture between 27 March and 7 July; news outlet La Prensa Gráfica 25 Aug reported that, according to sources from Institute of Legal Medicine, 73 people have died in custody since March, at least 35 of them presenting signs of violence. Dozens of people 9, 16, 24 Aug took to streets in capital San Salvador, demanding release of their relatives detained since March. Despite criticism, Legislative Assembly 17 Aug approved fifth extension of state of emergency; govt same day said that 50,000 suspected gang members had been detained since March. Authorities 9 Aug extradited MS-13 members José Jonathan Guevara-Castro, alias “Sospechoso”, and Edwin Mauricio Rodríguez Morales, alias “Manicomio”, to U.S., 24 Aug reported capture of one MS-13 leader, Byron Arístides Salazar Ramírez, alias “Sleepy”. La Prensa Gráfica 9 Aug revealed court had ordered Attorney General’s Office to investigate whether 18th Street gang had intervened in favour of President Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas candidates in 2021 municipal and legislative elections. In interview with French daily newspaper Le Monde, VP Félix Ulloa 12 Aug said that audios, in which govt official Carlos Marroquín admitted to negotiating with gangs, were genuine and suggested authorities open investigation against him. On international front, El Salvador 12 Aug abstained from condemning Nicaraguan President Ortega’s crackdown on dissent during Organization of American States (OAS) extraordinary session; OAS approved resolution.

Govt formation efforts continued without breakthrough as economic crisis deepened, while hopes persisted of deal to resolve maritime dispute with Israel. Efforts to form govt following 15 May parliamentary elections made no progress. PM Mikati and President Aoun 17 Aug held consultative meetings after discontinuing such discussions after Mikati 29 June proposed cabinet lineup, citing lack of progress; progress has reportedly been hampered by disagreement on allocation of various ministries to different sectarian communities. As obstacles continue to beset legislated reforms required to unlock International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial bailout package, economic crisis continued to deepen. After intermittent bread shortages triggered fights at bakeries nationwide in mid-to-late July, civil servants during month conducted open-ended strikes for weeks, protesting their heavily devalued wages, which has brought most state institutions to standstill. In mid-month, pressure on Lebanese lira increased once more, with currency weakening from 31,000 to one U.S.-dollar on 10 Aug to 34,000 on 20 Aug. European vessel 6 Aug rescued over 75 Lebanese citizens near Turkish coast from sinking boat, on which they had been trying to reach Europe. Amid rising tensions between Israel and Hizbollah over maritime dispute, hopes continued during month of resolution after U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein late July met with Aoun, Mikati, and House Speaker Nabih Berri, as well as Israeli leaders. Govt reportedly offered to back down from its expanded claim (known as “line 29”), thus renouncing any claim to Karish gas field, in return for solution that adopts “line 23” (which places demarcation line further north) but awards Lebanon additional 80km² that includes Qana prospect – gas deposit of unproven worth; Israel reportedly expressed willingness to accommodate proposal, subject to receiving compensation for ceding 80km² pocket. Despite reported progress, Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah 19 Aug publicly accused Hochstein of wasting time, warning that “escalation will be inevitable” if negotiations do not conclude promptly and allow Lebanon to begin exploring its offshore natural gas reserves.

Deadly clashes escalated in north between Turkish and Kurdish-led forces; Idlib ceasefire held despite violations, as skirmishes broke out between U.S. forces and Iran-linked groups. In north, suspected Turkish drone 6 Aug killed four, including top commander of Kurdish Workers’ Party’s (PKK) Iranian affiliate Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), in Qamishli city, Hasakah province; in response, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) 8 Aug claimed three cross-border attacks into Türkiye. Turkish troops and Kurdish forces 16 Aug exchanged fire in Kobane, Aleppo province, killing one civilian, while mortar attack on border post reportedly killed Turkish soldier in Turkish province Şanlıurfa. In retaliation, Turkish defence ministry same day claimed Turkish artillery killed 13 suspected Kurdish militants. Syrian state media reported Turkish airstrike 16 Aug killed three regime soldiers and injured six in Aleppo province; Syrian army claimed to have responded by striking Turkish military sites. SDF 18 Aug claimed attacks on army sites in Turkish border provinces Şanlıurfa, Mardin and Gaziantep; Turkish media confirmed three soldiers killed and eight wounded in attacks on border posts in Şanlıurfa and Gaziantep. Kurdish-run administration 19 Aug accused Türkiye of drone attack on girls’ school in Hasakah province, killing four. Rocket attack on market same day killed at least 14 in Al-Bab city in Aleppo province, held by Türkiye-backed forces. Suspected Turkish drone 24 Aug reportedly targeted Tal Rifaat town, Aleppo province, allegedly injuring nine. Meanwhile, Turkish FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 11 Aug stated need to reconcile opposition with regime, stoking unprecedented anger as thousands 11-12 Aug protested Turkish policy in opposition-held areas across north. Idlib province’s March 2020 ceasefire held despite Russian airstrikes in central desert and Idlib province. U.S.-led coalition 15 Aug repelled drones allegedly operated by Iran-linked groups targeting its al-Tanf base in Homs province; U.S. 23 Aug launched airstrikes against groups allegedly linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Deir al-Zor and next day reported three injuries in subsequent exchanges with “Iran-backed militants”. State media 14 Aug claimed Israeli missiles killed three Syrian soldiers in Tartous province and near capital Damascus. Russian forces 26 Aug said Israeli jets targeted facility in Masyaf city, Hama province.

U.S. and Iran returned to EU-brokered talks in most substantive engagement to restore nuclear accord since March, leading to back-and-forth exchanges as prospects for final deal remained uncertain. After EU’s High Representative Josep Borrell late July said he had shared text for parties’ consideration that was “the best possible deal”, Borrell’s deputy Enrique Mora 3 Aug announced deliberations between U.S., Iran and other signatories of 2015 deal would resume next day in Austrian capital Vienna for first in-person talks since March. Borrell 8 Aug asserted “Behind every technical issue and every paragraph lies a political decision that needs to be taken in the capitals”. Iran’s lead negotiator, Ali Bagheri-Kani, 15 Aug briefed Supreme National Security Council in advance of Tehran communicating its response to Brussels. U.S. 24 Aug conveyed counter-proposal, which as of late Aug remained under review by Iranians. Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 3 Aug informed member states that Iran had installed three cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at Natanz nuclear facility, and notified agency of its intent to install further six IR-2m centrifuge cascades. In fourth set of U.S. energy-related sanctions since late May, U.S. 1 Aug sanctioned six companies engaged in petroleum and petrochemical sales to East Asia. Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran same day said it would “launch and inject gas into hundreds of centrifuge machines, including advanced machines”; FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian framed move as direct reaction to U.S. designations. U.S. forces and “Iran-backed militia groups” conducted tit-for-tat attacks in Syria (see Syria). U.S. Department of Justice 10 Aug charged Iranian national, identified as member of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), over plot to kill former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton; White House warned of “severe consequences” in event of attack against U.S. citizens, while Iran’s foreign ministry denounced accusations as “threadbare and baseless myths”. U.S. Sec of State Antony Blinken 14 Aug denounced Iranian govt’s incitement of violence against Salman Rushdie as “despicable” following 12 Aug attack against author, who was subject of 1989 fatwa by Ayatollah Khomeini. Both incidents could fuel political opposition in U.S. to negotiating with Tehran.

Unrest escalated further in capital Baghdad, where armed clashes between rival Shiite factions killed 30; ruling Kurdish parties quashed protests in Kurdistan. After supporters of populist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr stormed parliament in capital Baghdad in late July, thousands of anti-Sadr protestors 1 Aug demonstrated outside Baghdad’s Green Zone. Sadr 3 Aug called for protestors to continue sit-in outside parliament, demanded dissolution of parliament, constitutional amendments and early elections; rival Nuri al-Maliki 8 Aug refused demands. Rival bloc Shiite Coordination Framework 12 Aug began sit-in outside Green Zone, demanding govt formation and resumption of parliament meetings. Sadrist protestors 22-23 Aug gathered outside Supreme Judicial Council in Green Zone after Sadr 10 Aug had called on body to dissolve parliament. Shiite leader Kazem al-Haeri 29 Aug announced retirement and encouraged his own followers to support Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei; in response, Sadr announced retirement, leaving his supporters to demonstrate without guidance. Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) that night fired on Sadrist protesters in Green Zone; Saraya Salam, armed wing of Sadr movement, deployed in response, leading to violent fighting that killed 30 and wounded over 200. Sadr supporters attacked PMF offices across southern provinces. Sadr next day called for calm and supporters’ withdrawal. Deadly clashes night of 31 Aug reportedly spread to southern city Basra. In Kurdistan region, ruling Kurdish parties Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 6 Aug quashed protests called by leader of New Generation Movement against delayed govt salary payments, rising food prices and unemployment; in PUK-dominated areas, security forces 6 Aug raided houses of political activists and New Generation Movement headquarters, reportedly arresting at least 40 party members. In KDP-dominated areas, security forces in days before 6 Aug arrested activists and journalists. Meanwhile, protests over electricity shortages 6 Aug erupted in southern Basra, Maysan, Wasit and northern Diyala governorates. Unidentified drone strike 1 Aug targeted Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) in Ranya district of Sulaymaniyah governorate. Turkish defence ministry 27 Aug said it killed nine PKK militants in north. Low-scale Islamic State (ISIS) attacks continued; notably, suspected ISIS attack 2 Aug killed five soldiers in Diyala governorate.

Govt welcomed truce extension in Yemen. Riyadh 3 Aug welcomed truce extension in Yemen, saying deal “primarily aims to reach a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire” (see Yemen). Terrorism suspect wanted in connection with 2015 bombing of Mosque in Abha city 10 Aug detonated explosive belt in Jeddah city as security forces attempted to arrest him, killing himself and injuring four. U.S. State Dept 2 Aug approved potential sale of Patriot missiles in $3bn arms deal. Saudi and U.S. 9 Aug announced joint military drills “Native Fury 22” in Yanbu and al-Kharj governorates for eighth time beginning mid-month. In effort to quash domestic dissent, court 15 Aug sentenced women’s rights activist Salma al-Shehab to 34 years in prison for tweets critical of govt; U.S. 22 Aug raised “significant concerns” over sentencing. Iranian foreign ministry 5 Aug issued public statement demanding release of Iranian national detained by Saudi Arabia during hajj pilgrimage.

Warring parties agreed two-month truce extension, while deadly clashes in Shebwa among rival anti-Huthi factions widened cracks within Political Leadership Council. Govt and Huthis 2 Aug for second time agreed to extend UN-mediated April truce for another two months; UN’s failure to secure six-month extension may signal warring parties’ reluctance both to return to frontline fighting and to transform truce into permanent ceasefire. Huthis same day demanded disbursement of salaries to public sector employees in Huthi-controlled areas, which they said was precondition for further truce extension, and opening of ports and airports. Govt refused salary payments before Huthis reopen roads in Taiz city; Taiz issue remained deadlocked despite rounds of talks in recent months in Jordanian capital Amman. Govt 29 Aug claimed Huthi attack killed 10 soldiers near Taiz city in “dangerous escalation”. On diplomatic front, UN Military Advisor Antony Hayward 4 Aug travelled to Ibb and Taiz governorates and met Huthi and govt representatives to discuss reopening roads in Taiz; UN envoy’s representative in Aden 10 Aug visited Mokha city in Taiz governorate to discuss opening roads local authorities. Meanwhile, tensions escalated within Political Leadership Council established in April. In Shebwa governorate, United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed groups and Islah-aligned factions came to blows after Shebwa Governor and General People’s Congress Party member Muhammad bin al-Wazir al-Awlaki 6 Aug removed local commander of paramilitary Special Security Forces (SSF) and Islah party loyalist Abdi Rabbi Lakaab. Fighting between UAE-aligned Giants Brigades and Shebwa Defence Forces (SDF) on one side and SSF on other 7 Aug erupted in provincial capital Ataq; Giants Brigades and SDF 10 Aug reportedly took over city with dozens killed in fighting. Islah forces said Giants Brigades 20 Aug took over parts of oil field in Shebwa’s Ayaz. In neighbouring Abyan governorate, Political Leadership Council leader Rashid al-Alimi 22 Aug ordered Southern Transition Council (STC, backed by UAE and aligned with SDF) to cease its military operations, which STC next day described as “anti-terror” operation. Earlier, Al-Alimi 1 Aug appointed STC leader as governor of Socotra island and General People’s Congress official with purported STC ties as governor of Hadramawt.

Israel launched offensive against Islamic Jihad in Gaza that killed dozens in worst fighting since May 2021; Israeli forces continued lethal raids in West Bank. Israeli military 1 Aug killed alleged teenage member of Islamic Jihad armed faction and arrested two others, including senior leader Bassam Al-Saadi, in raid in Jenin city, West Bank; Islamic Jihad same day declared “state of alertness”, while Israel imposed near total blockade on Gaza strip, closing crossings and blocking fuel entry. Israel 5 Aug launched “Operation Breaking Dawn” against Islamic Jihad in Gaza, killing two top military commanders and around 20 militants and destroying group’s facilities; in response, Islamic Jihad fired hundreds of rockets into Israel. Following Egyptian-led mediation, sides 7 Aug agreed to immediate ceasefire and Israel next day reopened crossings into Gaza. Gaza’s health ministry reported Israeli strikes killed 49 Palestinians and injured 350, while Israeli sources claimed 34 Israelis were injured. Meanwhile, Israel continued raids in West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem, arresting over 300 Palestinians in Aug. Notably, Israeli security forces 9 Aug killed three Palestinians, including leader of al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade cell Ibrahim Al-Nabulsi, and injured 60 in Nablus city; Palestinians same day staged strikes and demonstrations across West Bank. Unidentified gunman 14 Aug wounded at least eight Jewish worshippers in Jerusalem’s Old City. Israeli forces 15 Aug killed Palestinian in occupied East Jerusalem during raid; 18 Aug killed Palestinian and injured 30 others in clashes in Nablus; next day killed Palestinian in Tubas city. Israeli military 18 Aug raided offices of seven human rights organisations in West Bank, six of which Israel had labelled “terrorist organisations” in Oct 2021. Israeli forces 30 Aug exchanged fire with gunmen in Nablus city after three Israeli citizens entered city earlier in day. Ahead of Israeli elections slated for Nov, Knesset member Eli Avidar 2 Aug announced creation of new “Israel Free” party. Likud party 10 Aug elected former PM Benjamin Netanyahu to head of party list. Military continued strikes in Syria (see Syria). Israel and Türkiye 17 Aug restored full diplomatic ties after four years.

Govt ruled out reconciliation with Morocco, while French President Macron visited country in bid to mend strained relations. On occasion of newly-instituted National Army Day, army chief of staff, Gen Saïd Chengriha, 4 Aug extolled unity and cohesion between armed forces and Algerians against external threats; new public holiday epitomizes military institution’s growing influence on country’s politics. Authorities 23 Aug detained former interim PM Noureddine Bedoui on corruption charges, making him third ex-premier to face jail on corruption charges since late President Bouteflika resigned in 2019. Govt in August edition of its defence magazine El Djeich said there will be “no peace with Morocco”, citing neighbouring country’s “occupation” of Western Sahara; statement comes after Moroccan King Mohammed VI late July called for Algeria to engage in dialogue to restore “normal [bilateral] relations” one year after Algiers severed diplomatic ties with Rabat. Amid tense relations with European countries, President Tebboune early Aug suggested Algeria may apply to join BRICS bloc of emerging economies that includes Russia, Brazil, China, India and South Africa. French President Macron 25-27 Aug visited Algeria for first time since 2017 and met with Tebboune; leaders signed joint declaration calling for “new and irreversible dynamic” in bilateral relationship. In following days, several media outlets reported French energy group Engie and Algerian public oil and gas group Sonatrach nearing agreement for Algeria to increase natural gas exports to France by 50%.

Amid growing economic hardship, President Sisi reshuffled cabinet and Central Bank governor resigned; govt forces engaged in days-long clashes with Islamic State-affiliated militants near Suez Canal in Sinai Peninsula. Govt 11 Aug approved plan to ration electricity in order to save more natural gas for export amid severe shortage of foreign currency. Sisi 13 Aug replaced 13 ministers, including tourism portfolio, citing need to improve his administration’s performance, and Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer 17 Aug resigned. Issue of political prisoners continued to impede preparations for Sisi-sponsored national dialogue. National dialogue board of trustee member, Amr Hashem Rabie, 3 Aug called for more prisoner releases to “create an atmosphere of trust between the regime and activists”; another board member, Negad El Borai, 10 Aug presented Dialogue Coordinator Diaa Rashwan with letter from 19 rights defenders warning that dialogue cannot succeed unless authorities first commit to upholding human rights. In response, Rashwan 12 Aug reiterated that over 700 prisoners have been released or given presidential pardon since Sisi called for national dialogue in April. Amid continued violence in North and Central Sinai, Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) moved toward Suez Canal. Govt forces and Sinai Tribal Union fighters on one hand, and SP operatives on the other, 11 Aug exchanged fire around Jilbana village (North Sinai), about 20km east of Suez Canal. In following days, clashes reportedly reached as close as 5km from canal and left several dead, with army forces blocking Al-Arish-Al-Qantara highway, while SP operatives planted mines around Jilbana to hinder govt forces’ advance. Situation in area unclear in late Aug. Meanwhile, NGO Human Rights Watch 30 Aug urged authorities to investigate videos circulating on social media platforms since July and apparently showing military and pro-govt militias committing extrajudicial executions of suspected SP militants in North Sinai.

Worst fighting in years broke out in capital Tripoli between forces loyal to rival govts, raising prospect of a return to full-blown war. Fighting 26-27 Aug raged across Tripoli as forces aligned with Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR)-appointed PM Bashagha failed to take control of capital and oust Tripoli-based govt of PM Dabaiba; 32 people reportedly killed and 159 injured. Flare-up followed days of escalating tensions between rival factions. Smaller-scale clashes 5-6 Aug opposed Bashagha-aligned forces and militia loyal to Dabaiba near airport road in Tripoli. Amid build-up of forces outside Tripoli, UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) 23 Aug called for “immediate de-escalation”, warned that “current political stalemate [...] cannot be resolved through armed confrontation”. Bashagha 24 Aug called on Dabaiba to step down and peacefully hand over power to avoid bloodshed; Dabaiba rejected call, denounced “threats to ignite war” and vowed that no one would be allowed to meddle with security of Tripoli. Dabaiba 25 Aug urged head of Tripoli-based consultative High State Council, Khalid Al-Mishri, and HoR Speaker Aguila Saleh to approve constitutional basis for elections. Meanwhile, Supreme Court 18 Aug announced decision to reactivate its Constitutional Chamber, which had been inactive since 2016. Dabaiba same day welcomed move, saying it could act as “deterrent” to “abuses and violations” of 2015 power-sharing agreement. Opponents however denounced political manoeuvring in reaction to HoR session held 16 Aug, during which lawmakers voted on amending statutes of Supreme Court and ruled it could appoint advisers to top court. After Dabaiba in July changed oil leadership, Central Bank 2 Aug reportedly disbursed 8.5bn dinars to National Oil Corporation as part of 15bn “urgent and temporary financial arrangement” concluded in mid-April. Libya’s envoy to UN, Taher El-Sonni, 15 Aug said Dabaiba’s govt had rejected UN proposal to appoint Senegalese former Minister Abdoulaye Bathily as new head of UNSMIL; move came after UN Security Council late July extended UNSMIL’s mandate for only three months amid Russian insistence that new UN mission head is chosen before it agrees to longer extension.

New constitution giving President Saïed nearly unchecked powers came into force, and administrative court dealt blow to Saïed’s moves to control judiciary. After administrative court early to mid-Aug dismissed all three appeals against results of 25 July constitutional referendum, electoral commission 16 Aug announced final results, saying 31% of electorate took part in referendum with 94.6% of them voting yes. Saïed next day ratified new constitution, which expands presidential powers, and pledged in televised speech to establish constitutional court and to issue new electoral law ahead of legislative elections set for Dec; electoral commission 18 Aug said electoral law must be promulgated by mid-Sept for elections to be held on time. Opposition coalition National Salvation Front 18 Aug rejected new constitution, deeming it and all laws and institutions that emerge from it as illegal; also reiterated its call for “rescue government” to lead country into early presidential and legislative elections. Meanwhile, administrative court 9 Aug suspended dismissal of 49 of the 57 judges whom Saïed had unilaterally fired in June, citing “lack of legal and factual grounds” for dismissal. Govt in following days worked to block implementation of court’s ruling, claiming on 14 and 20 Aug that all 57 judges face criminal charges. Crackdown on dissent continued. Authorities 3 Aug arrested member of dissolved parliament, Rached Khiari, on charges including “insulting the army” and “conspiring against state security”; Khiari went into hiding in 2021 after accusing Saïed of receiving U.S. funding during his 2019 presidential campaign. Military court 16 Aug sentenced journalist Salah Attia to three months in prison on charges including “accusing a public official of illegal acts without proof” and “denigrating the army”. Govt and country’s main workers’ (UGTT) and employers’ (UTICA) unions 15 Aug started talks over economic reforms required by International Monetary Fund for rescue program. Morocco 26 Aug recalled ambassador to Tunisia hours after Saïed met with Western Sahara independence movement leader, Brahim Ghali, in capital Tunis (see Western Sahara).

Diplomatic row erupted between Morocco and Tunisia over Western Sahara; UN warned of serious food insecurity in Sahrawi refugee camps in Algeria. Moroccan King Mohammed VI 20 Aug called on international partners to offer “unequivocal” support for Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, suggesting friendship with Rabat will be measured by diplomatic stand on dispute. Polisario Front independence movement 22 Aug responded Western Sahara’s status is “clearly and explicitly defined” as country “separate and distinct” from Morocco. Morocco 26 Aug recalled ambassador to Tunisia hours after Tunisian President Saïed met with Polisario leader and Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic President Brahim Ghali in Tunis ahead of development conference; Tunisian govt next day recalled ambassador to Rabat for consultations, reaffirmed Tunisia’s “neutrality over Western Sahara issue”. UN team in Algeria 24 Aug warned Sahrawi refugees in Algeria’s Tindouf province at risk of serious food insecurity and malnutrition after funding gaps forced World Food Programme to cut food rations in camps by 75%.