Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, escalating a war that began eight years before with Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. For Ukraine, its very existence as a state is at stake, while Russia hopes its attack will help assert its place in the world and restore its dominance over key neighbours. Ukraine’s Western backers see the prospect of Russia succeeding in violently shifting borders as a risk to their security. They, therefore, try to balance military support to Ukraine and the risk of escalating the conflict. Crisis Group’s reporting follows developments in the war, assesses its human costs and gauges the conflict’s regional and global security implications. In its advocacy, Crisis Group seeks to support policies that will help Ukraine survive and reduce escalation risks and the human cost of fighting while contributing to a sustainably secure Europe.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker about the latest from Ukraine, prospects for a negotiated settlement to the war and what lies ahead for European security.
Ukraine’s forces stemmed Russian assault into Kharkiv region, stabilising northern frontline as fighting in east continued; Zelenskyy stepped up efforts to rally international support.
Ukraine contained Russian offensive in north as fighting in east persisted. Ukraine managed to contain Russia’s ground assault into Kharkiv region, helped by use of U.S.-supplied weapons in Russian borderlands after restrictions on their use on Russian soil loosened late May (see Russia). In east, Russian forces exploited relocation of Ukrainian troops north by stepping up attacks in Donetsk region, notably pursuing efforts to seize strategic town of Chasiv Yar.
Russian airstrikes persisted as Ukraine targeted Crimea. Russian strikes continued to target Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure amid lack of air defence, with Kharkiv bearing brunt of attacks; notably, bomb 22 June struck apartment building, killing three and wounding dozens. Meanwhile, Kyiv 23 June targeted Russian-annexed Crimea; Russian Ministry of Defence same day blamed U.S.-supplied ‘ATACMS’ missile, diverted by air defence, for killing at least four and wounding over 150 on busy beach in Crimea’s Sevastopol city near air base.
Peace summit took place in Switzerland. President Zelenskyy 15-16 June held peace summit in Switzerland in hopes of persuading critical mass of non-Western countries to back his ten-point ‘peace formula’. 78 of 92 participants signed joint communiqué on three of ten points, though signatures of key non-Western countries, including China, India, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Brazil, were missing. Earlier, Putin 14 June laid out Kremlin’s conditions for ceasefire and negotiations, which Kyiv called “absurd” (see Russia).
Foreign partners bolstered support to Kyiv. Notably, Group of Seven (G7) leaders 13 June agreed on $50bn loan for Ukraine, to be repaid using interest from some $300bn in frozen Russian assets. U.S. President Biden and Zelenskyy same day signed ten-year bilateral security agreement, while several countries pledged more air defence. South Korea 20 June said it would consider sending arms to Ukraine after North Korea and Russia day earlier signed treaty containing mutual defence article; move would represent radical departure from Seoul’s long-standing policy of not supplying weapons to countries at war. EU 25, 27 June launched accession talks and signed security agreement with Kyiv.
For too long, allies clung to magical thinking about Russia's weakness and Ukraine's ability to force the Kremlin into talks with battlefield success.
If Ukraine doesn’t receive the weapons from the West that it needs to keep fighting … it doesn’t stand much of a chance.
Ukraine's weapons supplies are depleted by the counteroffensive, and its allies are struggling to quickly ramp up production.
Moscow's strategy of waiting for an erosion of European unity over Ukraine could yet prove a miscalculation.
[Putin’s] goal is to force the West to negotiate on Moscow's terms … on the entire post-Soviet space. He wants to divide the world into spheres of influence again.
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Lucian Kim, senior Ukraine analyst at Crisis Group, to talk about the mood in Kyiv and Washington over the war in Ukraine and Washington’s Ukraine policy as the U.S. heads for elections in November.
Even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands its army freed from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is much Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once more.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts discuss the diplomats meeting in Lucerne about the war in Ukraine, its implications and Ukraine’s diplomatic strategy.
High-ranking officials from around the world will soon convene in Switzerland for talks aimed at “inspiring a future peace process” in Ukraine. No Russian representative will be there. In this Q&A, Crisis Group lays out the summit organisers’ goals and the obstacles to achieving them.
The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Joe Cirincione, national security analyst and a leading expert on non-proliferation, to discuss the nuclear escalation risks of the war in Ukraine, U.S. nuclear policy and the looming collapse of global arms control.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Crisis Group experts Alissa de Carbonnel and Simon Schlegel about where things stand for Ukraine and its Western supporters two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion and what might be next.
This article was originally published in the World Politics Review.
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